U.S. stocks rebounded Wednesday. The S&P 500 gained 1.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 2.28%. Nvidia ($NVDA) finished the regular session higher, then fell 8.6% in after-hours trading.

SMH ($SMH), a fund that tracks chip stocks, ended Wednesday up 4.82%. To gauge how much of that gain holds up, I’ll watch whether other chip stocks follow Nvidia at today’s U.S. open.

Key takeaways

  • The buying reached smaller U.S. companies, too. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks their shares, rose 0.9%. Whether small caps hold on to those gains today will help gauge the strength of buying outside chip stocks.
  • U.S. financial industry association SIFMA recommended a full-day pause in dollar-denominated bond trading for Veterans Day. When normal bond trading resumes today, I’ll weigh Wednesday’s stock move alongside the new direction in yields.

What happened?

  • On November 12, the Associated Press cited reports that Nvidia’s board met Wednesday evening to discuss the situation around CEO Jensen Huang. If the board announces a concrete step, I’ll look at how it affects the company’s leadership or operations.
  • CNBC (@CNBC) highlighted the rally in CoreWeave ($CRWV), a provider of AI infrastructure, in its November 11 closing report. The stock rose 24.71% to close at $60.77. The company had raised its revenue forecast for the year a day earlier. CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer noted that day how customer prepayments help finance data center investment. Along with the higher revenue forecast, I’m watching when those payments come in.
  • Reuters reported that on November 11, Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said Iran would not allow enriched nuclear material to leave the country. January 2027 Brent futures settled at $92.76 a barrel that day. Moving more oil through the Strait of Hormuz depends on tankers being able to cross safely. If Brent approaches $95-$96, I’ll give more weight to the risk that energy costs push inflation back up.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Nvidia and the chip fund both fell Tuesday. By Wednesday’s regular close, SMH had erased Tuesday’s loss and climbed above Monday’s close. Nvidia was still below its Monday close at that point.

Market levels

U.S. indexes and chips

  • The Nasdaq 100 rose to 28,374.25. QQQ ($QQQ), the fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $690.38. A close above Wednesday’s $683.56-$695.57 range would carry the recovery into a second session. A close below the range would be a stronger sign that Wednesday’s buying had faded.
  • SMH closed at $506.96 Wednesday. Holding above that day’s $496.01-$516.65 range would point to stronger buying. In his November 11 premarket commentary, market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) highlighted the risk of a break below $495. A move below that threshold would erase a substantial share of Wednesday’s gain.
  • Nvidia rose 2.87% in the regular session to close at $173.73. After the overnight selloff, the first threshold is Wednesday’s regular-session low of $170.77. If the stock climbs back above that price and holds there, the level becomes the first candidate for support. The top of Wednesday’s range was $177.54.

Precious metals

  • Gold fund GLD ($GLD) closed at $365.17 Wednesday. That was near the bottom of the day’s $364.89-$369.38 range. A return to the top of the range would make up Wednesday’s loss.
  • Silver fund SLV ($SLV) closed at $46.65. That was the bottom of Wednesday’s $46.65-$47.41 range. Below that low, the fund would start giving back Wednesday’s small gain. A return to the high would recover the ground buyers lost during the day.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 rose 0.04% to close at 11,666.42 on Wednesday. I’m treating the intraday low of 11,621.72 as a first candidate for support. Wednesday’s high of 11,820.47 is the first threshold I’ll use to gauge whether buying picks up after today’s inflation report.

Red flags

  • The gap between Nvidia’s bid and ask prices may widen in the first trades of the day. I’ll decide how much weight to put on the opening move based on where the price settles as the session progresses.
  • If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises again, it could put more pressure on technology companies whose profits are expected further out. When investors can earn a higher yield on bonds, they may pay less today for future corporate earnings.

Calendar

  • The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) presents its Inflation Report on November 12 at 10:30 Türkiye time. I’ll look at next year’s forecast and the assumptions behind any change.
  • The U.S. releases its October Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 13 at 16:30 Türkiye time. The number of sectors where producer prices rose will help show how widely price pressures have spread.

My analysis

Nvidia is a holding in the chip fund, so a decline in its shares can pull the fund down. I’ll start by watching other major chipmakers alongside the fund. If they largely hold their gains while Nvidia falls, I’ll have more confidence that Wednesday’s buying is continuing across the sector. If they turn lower too, I’ll read the previous session’s rally with more caution.

Once bond trading resumes, my second check will be how smaller companies respond to the move in yields. If yields rise and both small caps and tech stocks fall, I’ll give more weight to borrowing costs when assessing the risks to Wednesday’s rebound. Smaller companies are sensitive to more expensive borrowing, so their reaction will help me gauge how resilient the rally is.

Sources

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.