Nvidia rose 8.7% on August 27 while the Nasdaq gained 1.6% and the S&P 500 rose 0.7%; however, the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, rose only 0.3%, showing that the advance did not spread across the whole market with equal force.

The central question today is how far the rise carried by Nvidia can broaden under rate pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high at 4.67%, Brent is around $89.30, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's 5:00 p.m. TRT speech will clarify the split.

Key takeaways

  • At the August 27 close, Nvidia ($NVDA) rose 8.7% to $227.98; technology also showed strong participation, with QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, at $721.11, the semiconductor ETF SMH at $573.00 and the software-company ETF IGV at $110.32.
  • The S&P 500 rose to 7,730.99 and the Nasdaq Composite to 26,541.35; the Russell 2000 rose only 0.3% to 3,014.34.
  • July personal consumption expenditures inflation (PCE) rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year; core PCE was 3.3% year over year.
  • Today at 5:00 p.m. TRT, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak; at the same time, the BLS will publish the preliminary annual benchmark revision for March 2026.

What happened?

  • AP's August 27 closing report shows that Nvidia's 8.7% rise, an earnings result above expectations and a stronger forward revenue outlook carried technology shares; the 10-year Treasury yield also rose to 4.67% that day.
  • The August 27 cash-session closes showed that the first response did not remain limited to Nvidia: QQQ, SMH and IGV rose, but the Russell 2000's 0.3% gain shows that the whole market did not participate at the same pace.
  • BEA's July data showed spending and personal income rising while real PCE remained flat and annual price pressure stayed high.
  • Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) stresses that Nvidia's forward message and participation in chips and software should be monitored more than the earnings headline; Tunç Şatıroğlu also reads Nvidia, SMH and the Nasdaq alongside the Jackson Hole rate signal.
  • AP reports that a tanker near Hormuz was struck by an unknown object, according to a UKMTO report, and that Iran and Oman proposed safe passage; the crew was reported safe, but the proposal is not an arrangement that has entered into force.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is around $89.30, just below the $90 pressure threshold. Support is $88, the inflation-pressure threshold is above $90 and the resistance and risk threshold is $95; a move below $88 would reduce short-term pressure.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.67% at the August 27 par yield. Sustained trading above the 4.70% decision threshold would compress technology valuations; support is 4.65% and above 4.85% is the clear risk boundary.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.19%. A move below the 5.00% support would reduce long-term pressure; above the 5.35% risk boundary, financing conditions would become tighter.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,730.99; 7,750 is support and the first recovery level, 7,800 the pivot and 7,850 resistance. The breadth of the advance cannot be considered fully confirmed until 7,750 is reclaimed.
  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, last closed at $721.11. Support is $717, the first continuation signal is above $725, resistance is $734.56 and the next threshold is $740; a move below $717 would weaken Thursday's gain.
  • IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, stayed at $299.81; support is $299, reclaim is $303, the pivot is $305 and resistance is $310. It is too early to say that Nasdaq leadership has spread across the market before $303 is cleared.

Themes and ETFs

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH rose to $573.00; a close above $570 support passed the first test, $585 is the new momentum threshold and $600 is resistance. A return below $570 would show that the advance remains narrow.
  • The software ETF IGV closed at $110.32. Support is $108, the first continuation threshold is $112 and resistance is $115; below $108, participation beyond chips would weaken.
  • Nvidia closed at $227.98; $225 is support and a hold level, and $230 is the psychological threshold. The company's strong result is priced in, but the real quality test will be whether chip and software shares outside Nvidia hold these gains.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is around $79,772, above the $76,470 support and risk threshold; $83,000 is resistance and the upper threshold, while below it is a volatile area. This reading does not replace equity breadth.
  • Ethereum is around $2,494; support is $2,390 and resistance is $2,600. XRP is around $1.43, above the $1.41 support line, with resistance at $1.50; however, both cryptocurrencies are giving separate and volatile signals before the U.S. open.
  • GLD closed at $422.60 and SLV at $62.77; GLD support is $400 and resistance is $425, while SLV support is $58 and resistance is $65. The resilience of metals alone does not show that rate pressure has ended.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 stayed below the previous close at 14,575.51 in morning trading; 14,600 is resistance and the continuation threshold, 14,500 is near support and 14,300 is the risk line. Without sustained trading above 14,600, I do not read global technology optimism as local breadth.
  • USD/TRY was 48.2441; 48.00 is support and the reference level, while 48.50 is the resistance and pressure threshold. Sustained trading above 48.50 would increase local currency pressure.

Red flags

  • If SMH falls below $570 or QQQ cannot reclaim $725, Nvidia's strong result will lose confirmation as broad-based technology strength.
  • If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises above 4.70% and Brent rises above $90, the two together would pressure technology valuations and inflation expectations. Brent above $95 would intensify the energy channel.
  • If IWM cannot hold $303 or IGV cannot hold $108, Nasdaq leadership will remain confined rather than spreading to small companies and software.
  • If Warsh's speech pushes Treasury yields higher or the BLS benchmark revision materially changes the employment base, earnings-driven optimism will turn back toward rate sensitivity.
  • If the safe-passage proposal for Hormuz does not become operational and tanker risk continues, easing Brent prices cannot be read as durable supply relief.

Calendar

  • August 28, 4:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. cash market will open; whether QQQ, SMH and IGV hold their August 27 gains will test breadth.
  • August 28, 5:00 p.m. TRT: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will give the opening speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
  • August 28, 5:00 p.m. TRT: the BLS will publish the preliminary annual CES benchmark revision for March 2026; this is not a new monthly employment report, but a realignment of the employment base.
  • August 27-29: the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; policy communication could move Treasury yields and technology valuations again.

My analysis

The rise carried by Nvidia is no longer only a single-stock story: QQQ, SMH and IGV closing on August 27 shows that AI and technology demand spread the first response across several instruments. By contrast, the Russell 2000's 0.3% gain says that the move did not reach small companies with the same force.

On the macro side, PCE inflation at 3.7% year over year, core PCE at 3.3% and the 10-year yield holding at 4.67% leave the condition in front of the earnings story clear. If Warsh's message pushes rates above the 4.70% decision threshold, Nvidia's strong result alone may not be enough to protect technology valuations.

The main thresholds I will watch today are QQQ holding $725, SMH holding $570 and then clearing $585, IWM at $303, Brent at $90 and the BIST 100 at 14,600. Until these lines work together, I do not read resilience in crypto or precious metals as broad-based buying interest.

Sources

  • AP, August 27 U.S. market close: apnews.com
  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026: bea.gov
  • U.S. Treasury, August 27 daily par yield curve: home.treasury.gov
  • NVIDIA Newsroom, second-quarter results: nvidianews.nvidia.com
  • Kansas City Fed, 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: kansascityfed.org
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 28 release schedule: bls.gov
  • BloombergHT, BIST 100: bloomberght.com
  • BloombergHT, Brent crude: bloomberght.com
  • BloombergHT, USD/TRY: bloomberght.com
  • AP, Hormuz and the Iran-Oman safe-passage proposal: apnews.com
  • U.S. ETF, stock and crypto market data: alpaca.markets
  • Bora Özkent, Nvidia Bilançosu ile Piyasaları Yıktı Geçti!: youtu.be
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu, Nvidia Bilançosu Harika Peki Nasdaq Zirveye Gider mi?: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Mad Money 08/27/26 | Audio Only: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Market Close: Stocks Higher, Warsh Speech Ahead, Travel Demand Defies High Prices: youtu.be
  • Bloomberg Television, Nvidia Rally, AI Trade & Jackson Hole Preview: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance Live, Daily Market Coverage - August 27, 2026: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.