Falling below $90 in oil and easing Treasury yields gave U.S. markets room to breathe; the S&P 500 rose to 7,677.28 and the Nasdaq Composite to 26,151.30.

But energy relief has not resolved technology risk: the semiconductor ETF ($SMH) stayed at $555.82, and Nvidia's earnings report due today will test whether this rise can spread across the broader market.

Key takeaways

  • U.S. indexes rose with relief in oil and rates, but the recovery lines for QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, and SMH's confirmation level have still not been cleared.
  • The central question in Nvidia's earnings is not only the result, but whether AI spending is turning into broader customer demand and what the company's forward outlook says.
  • Canada announced tariffs that will start on September 8; trade costs are rising, but today's main market channel is oil and Treasury yields.
  • The BIST 100 is at 14,473.42, between a break below 14,300 that holds for two hours and a continuation threshold above 14,600; the local market is not yet following the global relief.

What happened?

  • According to AP, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 rose on August 25; falling oil pulled Treasury yields lower and opened room for risk assets.
  • Contacts between Iran and Oman increased hopes of easier passage through Hormuz; Reuters said there was no detailed progress and Iran said the strait would remain closed until conditions were met. Brent was about $85.48 in the morning.
  • Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods; some rates reach 50% and implementation starts on September 8. In a new escalation, the cost channel could turn into higher inflation expectations.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) finished August 25 at $213.05; the shared point to watch is less the result than the forward outlook and the breadth of cloud companies' AI investment.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) watches 76,500 in Bitcoin and a two-hour hold below 14,300 in the BIST 100 as risk limits, while 14,600 is the continuation threshold.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was about $85.48 in the morning; $90 is the support and pressure line, while $95 is the resistance and risk threshold. Below $90 would ease inflation and rate pressure; above $95 would increase energy-driven pressure.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.639%, just below the 4.65% support line. The 4.70% decision threshold and 4.85% risk limit remain in view; sustained trading below 4.70% would give valuations room.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.174%, between the 5.00% relief support area and the 5.35% resistance and risk threshold. Unless the yield approaches 5.00%, long-term borrowing costs cannot be considered relieved.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,677.28, below the 7,750 support and reclaim line; 7,800 is the pivot and 7,850 resistance. Reclaiming 7,750 is the first step toward broad index confirmation.
  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is at $710.72. Support and reclaim are at $725, resistance is $734.56 and the next threshold is $740; technology leadership awaits confirmation while $725 is not cleared.
  • IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, is at $299.23. Support and reclaim are $302-$303, the pivot is $305 and resistance is $310; below $302, market participation remains narrow.

Themes and ETFs

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH is in a support zone at $555.82. Reclaim and confirmation are at $585 and resistance is $600; until $585 is cleared, the rebound after Nvidia cannot be considered broad-based.
  • The software-company ETF IGV is at $101.85, below the $103.70 support and reclaim line; resistance is $106.30 and the risk area is $101. Below $101, the weakness zone opens again.
  • Nvidia is at $213.05; the key issue is the forward outlook and breadth of demand, more than the current support area. Whether SMH can reclaim its $585 confirmation line is the accompanying market test.
  • Meta is at $570.05; support and reclaim are $580 and resistance is $590. Staying below $580 leaves the technology recovery fragmented.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is at $78,888.62. The risk limit is 76,500, the support and watch area is $72,000 and the upper threshold is $83,000; below 76,500, the bullish condition breaks.
  • Ethereum is at $2,457.88 and XRP at $1.4356. Tunç's conditional risk limits are the $2,370 support line and the $1.40 risk limit respectively; I do not treat short-term movement as confirmed until these lines are watched.
  • The gold ETF is at $428.07 and the silver ETF at $62.32. Support at $400 and $58 is holding, but the resilience of metals alone is not enough before a technology confirmation level appears.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 was 14,473.42 and down 0.19% in Bloomberg HT's 10:00 update. A two-hour hold below the 14,300 support and risk limit would matter, while 14,600 is the resistance and continuation threshold; the current value sits between the two references.

Red flags

  • Even if Nvidia's result looks strong, a weaker forward outlook or failure of SMH to clear $585 would leave the technology rebound narrow.
  • If Brent returns above $90 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.70%, energy and borrowing costs will apply pressure at the same time.
  • If the Hormuz contacts do not open passage in practice or Brent tests $95, inflation and logistics risk will come back to the foreground.
  • If Canada's tariffs take effect on September 8 and new retaliation follows, trade costs could pass into consumer prices and company margins.

Calendar

  • August 26, 3:30 p.m. TRT: The BEA will publish the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, corporate profits and July Personal Income and Outlays.
  • August 27, 12:00 a.m. TRT: NVIDIA's second-quarter results call, scheduled for August 26 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
  • August 27-29: The Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; policy communication will be watched for long-term Treasury yields and technology valuations.
  • August 28, 5:00 p.m. TRT: The BLS will publish preliminary annual benchmark revisions for March 2026.

My analysis

Today's rise is driven mainly by easing oil and Treasury yields, not by Nvidia's result. That relief supported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite at the August 25 close, but SMH staying below its $585 confirmation line suggests broad confidence in technology has not yet formed.

What matters in Nvidia's announcement is less a one-line result surprise than the forward outlook and whether AI investment by a few large customers becomes broader demand. QQQ reclaiming $725, the S&P 500 reclaiming 7,750 and IWM reclaiming the $302-$303 area would be the market expression of that reading.

Until these thresholds are cleared, I do not read resilience in crypto and precious metals as broad-based risk appetite. The global relief has not yet been confirmed in Turkey.

Sources

  • AP, August 25 U.S. market close, oil and Treasury yields: apnews.com
  • AP, August 25 Canada retaliatory tariffs: apnews.com
  • AP, August 26 Asian markets, Hormuz contacts and oil: apnews.com
  • Reuters, August 26 Hormuz, Brent and Treasury yields: live.euronext.com
  • BEA official calendar, August 26: bea.gov
  • NVIDIA Investor Relations, August 26 FY27 second-quarter results call: investor.nvidia.com
  • Kansas City Fed, August 27-29 Jackson Hole: kansascityfed.org
  • BLS official calendar, August 28 benchmark revision: bls.gov
  • Bloomberg HT, BIST 100 live page, August 26: bloomberght.com
  • Yahoo Finance chart API, August 25 closes and August 26 market observations: query1.finance.yahoo.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu, Is a New High on the Way? Bottom Signals in the American Stock Market: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Market Close: Stocks Rise, Iran-Oman Hormuz Talks, Consumer Confidence Falls: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance Live, Daily Market Coverage - August 25, 2026 3PM - 5PM (ET): youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Mad Money 08/25/26 | Audio Only: youtu.be
  • Bloomberg Television, Canada Doubles Tariffs on US Steel Products up to 50%: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.