The S&P 500 rose 2.35% yesterday, while Nvidia ($NVDA) fell. After a session in which oil also dropped sharply, today's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will test whether interest-rate expectations can provide fresh support for the recovery to continue.

Oil's November decline does not change the October inflation figure due today. Cheaper energy's contribution in later months will depend on how long these prices hold and how much of the cost reduction companies pass on through lower prices.

Key takeaways

  • I will not base today's assessment on headline inflation alone. The pace of price increases excluding energy and food needs to be read alongside the response in bonds and stocks after the release; one favorable number does not prove that all price pressure is over.
  • Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) maintains his wait stance on gold and silver. He notes that an indicator that has turned positive gave a misleading signal before; his current view is not an unconditional call to buy.

What happened?

  • The S&P 500 ended November 9 at 7,549.94 points; the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 closed at 27,907.63. These closes are starting points for assessing how much of the gains hold after today's release.
  • Nvidia's board launched an independent investigation on November 8 and said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised. That assessment does not mean the investigation has been completed.
  • On CNBC (@CNBC), "Mad Money" host and market commentator Jim Cramer said he retained his buy view on Nvidia but had scaled back his emphasis on the data-center theme. Selecting one company and deciding how much weight to give an entire sector are different decisions.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on November 9 that Qatar and Saudi Arabia wanted a peaceful solution on Iran, while the United States could resume strikes if necessary. He also said he was content with the naval blockade. Despite hopes for diplomacy, risks to supply and shipping remain.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Before yesterday's U.S. open, it was unclear whether the Nvidia news would trigger sector-wide selling in chip stocks. The chip fund's rise while Nvidia fell shows that Monday's selling did not spread across the entire sector. The company's investigation remains a separate uncertainty, however; buying in the stock market does not answer questions about its outcome.

Market levels

U.S. stocks and bonds

  • QQQ ($QQQ), an exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100, closed Monday at $679.35. The endpoints of yesterday's $662.02-$682.48 trading range are nearby reference points. Holding above the upper end will be a near-term test of whether buying can advance; losing the lower end would weaken yesterday's recovery.
  • The chip-company fund SMH ($SMH) closed Monday at $487.41, near the session's upper end. Monday's observed $462.88-$490.47 trading range defines the nearby boundaries. A return to the lower end would erase yesterday's gain; a move above the upper end will be watched for further progress in the fund.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) closed Monday at $178.67. The close was near the upper end of Monday's observed $170.24-$179.92 range. Even reclaiming the high would only be an initial step in a recovery; losing the low would increase the risk of deeper selling.
  • The latest close for TLT ($TLT), which tracks U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of more than 20 years, was $81.96. Monday's observed low was $81.82 and its high was $82.28. The fund generally gains value when yields at these maturities fall; lower rates could ease technology companies' financing burden.

Oil and precious metals

  • January 2027 Brent futures settled Monday at $92.57 per barrel, down 5.85% for the day. The price is below the $95-$96 area that I use as a risk threshold for global equities. A return above that area could weaken rate-cut expectations through energy costs and inflation; if lower prices hold, they could support the recovery, particularly in U.S. growth stocks.
  • GLD ($GLD), the fund tracking gold, closed Monday at $379.53. That session's $375.68 low and $380.18 high are nearby support and resistance candidates. The close was near the upper end; a move above it will matter for continued buying. Because gold pays no interest, expectations of lower rates could support the fund; expectations of rates staying high for longer could weaken that support.
  • SLV ($SLV), the fund tracking silver, closed at $48.14, in the upper part of Monday's observed range. The endpoints of Monday's observed $47.36-$48.315 range are nearby reference points for the new trading day. For fresh momentum, I am looking for a move above the upper end; losing the lower end would be a warning of renewed selling. If industrial demand weakens, easing interest rates may not be enough to lift silver.

Türkiye

  • The BIST 100 ended Monday up 2.00% at 11,712.67 points; it traded between 11,521.40 and 11,739.94 during the session. Holding above the upper end would be a test of continued buying; losing the lower end would weaken the recovery. Oil staying low could limit Türkiye's energy import bill; it should not be expected to support every BIST company to the same degree.

Red flags

  • If monthly price increases accelerate in categories other than energy and food, cheaper oil alone may not strengthen expectations of a rate cut. The trend in service prices will therefore matter.
  • If Nvidia reports a concrete effect on customer relationships or operations, I will reassess the company's risk. I do not infer lost revenue or orders from the share-price decline alone.

Calendar

  • November 10, 16:30 TRT: U.S. October CPI.
  • November 11, 01:00 TRT: AI cloud company CoreWeave's conference call on third-quarter results.
  • November 12, 10:30 TRT: TCMB Inflation Report 2026-IV presentation; this is not a rate-decision meeting.
  • November 13, 16:30 TRT: The U.S. October Producer Price Index (PPI) report will show changes in producer prices.

My analysis

To gain more confidence in yesterday's rally, I want to see a more consistent response across stocks and bonds after the inflation release. I will first look at how far price increases extend beyond energy, then at the closes of TLT and the technology funds. If stocks rise while the bond fund falls markedly, I will keep open the possibility that upward pressure on financing costs persists. I would not apply the same positive conclusion to all growth stocks in that setting.

Falling rates are not always good news, either. If they reflect concerns about growth that would also weaken companies' sales, cheaper financing might not offset a decline in profits. That is why I will watch not just the direction of stocks and bonds, but also what companies say about customer demand.

I will not assess revenue expectations in isolation on tonight's CoreWeave call, either. How the investment required for new capacity is financed could change how much shareholders benefit from growth. If revenue expectations hold but investment costs rise or capacity will come online later, easing inflation will not solve that problem by itself. When choosing companies, I will compare the cost of achieving growth as well as its pace.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.