U.S. technology stocks fell on Monday, while financial analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) expects a gold rebound. To evaluate that expectation, today's reopening of the bond market and tomorrow's U.S. inflation data will be important.

Gold pays no interest; when bond yields remain high, holding gold carries a greater opportunity cost. The latest U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is Friday's 5.24%. With the bond market closed on Monday, we cannot interpret moves in equity and precious-metal funds as the result of a new decline in yields.

Key takeaways

  • A lower gold price and the start of a recovery are different things. When evaluating an analyst's bullish view, I first consider the condition they set and then how well the price holds that condition. A price target alone offers no assurance about timing or returns.
  • Bank earnings may provide a more concrete picture of how high interest rates affect businesses and their customers. Alongside interest income, loan demand, troubled loans and provisions for future losses matter. High rates are not always equally good news for banks.
  • Slower inflation could weaken the interest-bearing alternative competing with gold. But expectations formed before a release and the bond market's response afterward are separate stages. I will not treat those stages as a single outcome today.

What happened?

  • CNBC's market recap described a Monday gain for the Dow alongside declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq; most major chipmakers also finished lower. This divergence shows that the whole U.S. market is not moving in the same direction. Whether technology stocks can retain earlier gains is becoming more significant.
  • Şatıroğlu emphasizes a move above $4,230 per ounce for gold and describes a rebound scenario that could approach $5,000. His crossing threshold for silver is $61.80 per ounce. These are conditional analyst assessments, rather than an outcome promised within a specific period or a rally that has already happened. He also identifies the possibility of yields rising again as a risk.
  • On October 12, the Council of the EU added companies and individuals in Russia's military-industrial supply chain to its sanctions list. The decision also covers electronics and semiconductor suppliers and prohibits providing funds or economic resources to listed parties. Checking the identity of the company involved becomes important in financing and supply relationships with these companies.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday we were watching the crypto recovery before U.S. stocks began their first session of the week. We now have Monday's equity closes, with technology weak. Ethereum has also returned below its first recovery boundary. These developments call for more caution in assessing whether initial positive moves in different assets support one another.

Market levels

U.S. indexes and chips

  • SPY ($SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, finished Monday at $778.10. The last session's $777.05 low is a candidate support boundary, while its $779.40 high is a nearby candidate resistance. Losing the lower area would increase near-term selling risk; reclaiming the upper area would be an initial test of stronger buying.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $746.04. $744.85 is candidate support from Monday's low; $749.79 is the nearby candidate resistance that needs to be reclaimed. For an advance to continue, I first want to see the last session's upper area reclaimed. If the lower boundary also breaks, weakness in technology stocks could extend.
  • Semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) last closed at $590.99. It traded between $589.22 and $598.45 on Monday and finished near the lower end; the low is candidate support and the high is initial candidate resistance. Clearing the first recovery boundary matters, as does carrying the gain into the close. A brief bounce after another decline does not by itself prove that the sector has changed direction.

Bonds and precious metals

  • TLT ($TLT), which tracks U.S. Treasuries with maturities over 20 years, stands at $78.05. The fund closed near the upper end of its $77.83-$78.06 range; the low is candidate support, and the high is the first candidate resistance to clear. A move outside this range will provide a useful indication of yield pressure as bond market trading returns to normal.
  • Gold fund GLD ($GLD) finished Monday at $382.15. $382.74 is candidate resistance from the last session's high; on a pullback, the $381.16 low is the first candidate support. Reclaiming the fund's own upper boundary would support a recovery; losing the lower area would support continued selling. These are separate price conditions.
  • Silver ETF SLV ($SLV) closed at $54.35. The close is very near Monday's $54.30 low. A recovery first requires reclaiming the $54.74 candidate resistance; the session low is nearby candidate support and the downside risk boundary. Similar expectations for gold and silver do not imply equally large swings in both metals. To assess upward progress in silver, it is more useful to watch a breakout from the fund's own range.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is around $83,451 this morning. It is very close to the previous $83,400 confirmation threshold; I do not see that small margin as a strong crossing. Moving below the area again would reduce confidence in the recovery. The earlier $82,300 level is a separate reclaim condition, rather than established support.
  • Ethereum is back below the previous $2,530 recovery threshold at $2,526.42, and remains well short of the lost $2,570 support area. Yesterday's first crossing did not hold. The initial task is now to reclaim $2,530, then progress toward $2,570. If weakness continues, the previous downside risk scenario's $2,350 level could return to focus; it is not a target already reached.

Red flags

  • If inflation comes in above expectations, Treasury yields could rise again. A positive-looking technical signal in gold would then face competition from a more attractive interest-bearing alternative. The technical picture does not remove the economic constraints.
  • Even if banks report strong profits, higher loan-loss provisions may warn of pressure on households or businesses. Looking only at headline earnings can overlook payment problems that may emerge later.

Calendar

  • Today, approximately 14:00 TRT: Wells Fargo, and approximately 15:00 TRT: Citi plan to release third-quarter results. Loan demand and loss provisions will be watched; the results have not yet been announced.
  • October 14, 15:30 TRT: September U.S. CPI. Non-energy components and the monthly increase will matter for interest-rate expectations.
  • October 15, 15:30 TRT: September U.S. PPI. Producer prices will be assessed in relation to company costs and selling prices.

My analysis

Today I am separating the gold reversal an analyst expects from the market move I can observe. A rebound may become possible after a decline, but confidence requires the price to reclaim its own nearby boundaries first. Lower yields could support that move. Still, demand for safe havens, currencies and company expectations mean I do not expect all assets to move in the same direction.

I will first look at bank results for changes in loan demand and payment problems, then at inflation's impact on Treasury yields. Banks reporting healthy demand and manageable losses would suggest a more solid economic backdrop for companies. If inflation slows and yields fall, I would put more weight on a recovery in precious metals. If yields rise again and funds lose their recent lows, the immediate question is why the current move is failing to strengthen, before considering distant targets.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.