Chip stocks and precious metals moved in different directions this week. $SMH, the semiconductor ETF, gained roughly 4%, while funds tracking gold and silver fell. Buying in technology continued, but the strength did not spread across every asset. Friday’s weak jobs report put the balance between growth and interest-rate expectations back in focus heading into the new week.

I do not read the stock-market recovery as evidence that the economy’s problems have been resolved. The prospect of lower rates can support technology valuations; slower hiring can weigh on consumption and sales. Upcoming data will help show which effect carries more weight. Measures to improve oil and diesel supply belong in the same assessment of business costs.

Key takeaways

  • When comparing weekly performance, Friday’s move should not stand in for the entire week. Between the September 25 and October 2 closes, SMH rose 3.96%, while $QQQ, which tracks the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, gained 0.68%. The advance was more pronounced in chips.
  • Gold fund $GLD fell 3.37% over the same period, while silver fund $SLV lost 5.85%. These are changes in fund prices, not returns on spot gold or silver. Silver’s larger loss makes a stronger price confirmation more relevant when assessing a recovery.
  • TLT, the ETF tracking U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities above 20 years, fell 2.32% over the same week. This is also a price change that excludes cash distributions. Stronger stocks do not mean long-term bond prices moved in the same direction.

What changed since the start of the week?

  • Early in the week, high rates weighed on precious metals, while company news supported selective buying. The chip fund’s positive weekly finish showed that buying in technology stocks held up. Losses in metals made it harder to describe the move as a shared recovery.
  • Friday’s jobs report broadened the discussion from how long rates might stay high to how well the economy can withstand those conditions. Weak data may support stocks in the short term, but it also raises the importance of subsequent sales and earnings reports.

What happened this week?

  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, and unemployment was 4.2%. The BLS revised the combined July and August job gains down by 60,000. The broader hiring trend matters more than the result for one month alone.
  • Bloomberg economist Anna Wong discussed artificial intelligence’s possible effect on hiring in the weekend program. This is not the only explanation for the jobs report; companies’ use of technology, costs and demand expectations need to be considered together. The official employment result alone does not establish AI-driven job losses.
  • The G7 and its partners plan to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and fuel reserves over four months. An early emphasis on diesel and avoiding energy export restrictions within the G7 matter for supply reaching consumers. Reserve releases do not replace refining or transportation capacity.

Market levels

U.S. technology stocks

  • QQQ last closed at $749.58. I watch the upper boundary of Friday’s $747.53-$754.54 range as a nearby threshold for a recovery in the new week. I would not treat a single session’s low as lasting support.
  • SMH closed at $630.60, above the $618-$620 resistance zone in Tunç Şatıroğlu’s (@tuncsatiroglu) October 1 assessment. His $600 stop-loss level should not be read as support. I will assess the strength in chips alongside participation from other technology stocks.

Gold and silver

  • Reuters reported spot gold at $4,140.06 on Friday. That price does not meet the $4,250 reclaim condition Şatıroğlu described on September 28. His $4,000 figure is a downside target, not confirmed support.
  • The spot silver price reported on Friday was $60.36. In the same assessment, Şatıroğlu called for a daily close above $63, a condition separating an initial bounce from a stronger recovery. The $56 figure is the target in that scenario; I do not assume in advance that support will form there.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin was around $84,940 this morning, between the $82,700 support and the $85,100-$85,200 threshold to be cleared with a strong candle in Şatıroğlu’s September 26 framework. For the upside scenario, I watch the strength of the move as well as whether the price merely touches that threshold.
  • Ethereum was around $2,691. Between the $2,630 support and the $2,730-$2,740 breakout threshold in the same assessment, the price has not yet met the upside condition. Whether the weekend move carries into regular Monday trading hours also matters.

Calendar

  • Monday, October 5, 5:00 p.m. TRT: ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). New orders and prices will help show how slower hiring is affecting services.
  • Wednesday, October 7, after 5:30 p.m. TRT: EIA weekly petroleum data. Inventories of diesel and related fuels matter alongside crude stocks when assessing where supply relief is occurring. Crude inventories alone do not describe the entire fuel market.
  • Wednesday, October 7, 9:00 p.m. TRT: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The inflation and growth assessments from the September 15-16 meeting will show the discussion before Friday’s jobs report. This release will not announce a new rate decision.

Red flags

  • If slower hiring also weakens consumption, the support stocks receive from lower-rate expectations may fail to offset slower earnings growth.
  • Reserve releases may ease energy costs. But if diesel bottlenecks persist, relief in crude oil may not pass directly through to final fuel prices.

My analysis

I see this week as a period in which confidence in technology persisted, but money did not flow equally into every part of the market. The chip fund’s performance stands out. A stronger outlook for next week would require that strength to spread to more companies. Buying based only on the prospect of lower rates can remain vulnerable if economic growth slows noticeably.

My priority is how slower hiring affects sales, and whether energy relief reaches business costs. In gold and silver, the price areas that hold after the initial bounce matter. In crypto, the question is whether weekend moves carry into regular trading days. I enter the new week by watching whether these conditions are met together, rather than committing to one directional expectation.

Sources

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Élysée / G7, Federal Reserve, ISM, EIA, Reuters, Bloomberg Television, Alpaca, Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu.

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.