Technology stocks rose during the week of September 21 to 25, but borrowing costs climbed too. The Nasdaq 100-tracking ETF $QQQ gained 3.2% for the week, while the semiconductor ETF $SMH added 5.9%; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from 5.01% on the previous Friday to 5.17%. Stronger share prices do not mean the costs weighing on them have disappeared.

Looking ahead from Sunday morning, the question for the new week is how much of these gains can withstand costlier financing and uncertainty over Iran. After oil fell on Friday, President Donald Trump’s announcement on Saturday that he had rejected Iran’s proposal makes Monday’s open important.

Key takeaways

  • The weekly rise in chip stocks shows that buying in technology continued. From here, I will watch whether companies can meet earnings expectations, not only whether the index rises. Higher interest rates can reduce the present value of profits expected further in the future.
  • Diplomacy moved in two directions: U.S.-China trade talks bought companies time, while no lasting solution was announced on Iran. There is no reason to assume that easing on trade will lower energy costs by the same amount.
  • Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) thinks the rise could continue next week, but has become more cautious about new purchases ahead of October. Separating existing positions from taking on new risk is a reminder that expecting gains is not the same as buying at any price.

What happened this week?

  • Buying in technology shares during the first days of the week was largely maintained through Friday’s close. QQQ’s weekly gain lagged SMH’s. At the same time, higher Treasury yields are a reminder that share prices do not reflect every economic risk: even if companies grow strongly, investors may change what they are willing to pay for that growth.
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States and China had agreed to extend their trade truce through January 10, 2027. The statement, also covered in Bloomberg’s September 26 report, gives both sides more time for talks. It should not be read as the removal of all tariffs or technology-export restrictions.
  • Brent crude fell 2.1% on Friday to settle at $104.32 a barrel, Reuters reported. Bloomberg then reported that Trump said on Saturday he had rejected Iran’s proposal, which included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Friday’s price was set before that announcement; it remains to be seen how the uncertainty over energy transport will be priced in the new week.
  • Şatıroğlu said the rise could continue if the S&P 500 breaks through resistance, while also seeing risks in October. That is an analyst scenario; the calendar turning to a new month does not by itself prove a decline is starting. I do not turn his caution about new purchases into a sell call on every existing holding.

What changed since the start of the week?

  • Monday’s note focused on whether the chip recovery would continue at the U.S. open and whether diplomatic optimism would translate into action. We now know the weekly stock gains; in contrast, rate pressure increased and a new obstacle emerged on Iran over the weekend. The conditions needed to preserve the initial optimism have become more demanding.

Market levels

U.S. equities

  • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743. A break above the 7,780 resistance area Şatıroğlu is currently watching would strengthen the scenario for a move toward 7,900. Losing the earlier support area at 7,650 would call for a more cautious view of the recovery.
  • QQQ’s latest close was $744.50. I will watch Friday’s low of $739.64 as a possible support and its high of $745.92 as resistance. Holding above the upper boundary would be positive for continued buying; losing the lower one would weaken the latest session’s recovery. These are ETF prices, not Nasdaq 100 index points.
  • SMH closed at $606.56, just below the $609 resistance area Şatıroğlu highlighted in his latest video. Touching that area intraday and closing above it are different conditions. The prior $587 support and risk limit is further below, so the distance from a price near resistance to that lower boundary also matters.

Oil, gold and crypto

  • Brent’s latest close was $104.32. Below it, I will watch $100 as a possible psychological support; a move below that level could ease energy-cost pressure. I view the previous session’s $106.60 close as nearby resistance. A return there would erase Friday’s decline. These two boundaries will help me assess the effect of new diplomatic news on prices.
  • The gold-tracking $GLD closed Friday at $393.41. The latest session’s low of $390.05 is the first possible support; establishing a position above the $394.22 resistance area could strengthen the recovery. Geopolitical uncertainty may support demand for gold, while high Treasury yields may weigh on it in the opposite direction. Both effects need to be watched together.
  • Bitcoin was around $84,460 on Sunday morning. A strong move above the $85,100 to $85,200 area from the previous analysis is still the expected confirmation condition; $82,700 is support below. The weekend recovery is not enough to say a new breakout has occurred before that upper range is cleared.

Red flags

  • If oil and Treasury yields rise together, energy-intensive companies may be squeezed by both operating expenses and financing costs. Margins can narrow even as sales grow.
  • After a strong week for chips, buying that narrows to only a few companies could make the rally less durable. The breadth of advancing stocks matters as much as the direction of the index.

Calendar

  • September 28, 4:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. markets reopen after the weekend. Following the statement on Iran, I will watch the first reaction in energy and technology stocks.
  • September 29, 5:00 p.m. TRT: U.S. job openings and labor turnover for August (JOLTS). Employers’ demand for workers matters for the outlook for wages and interest rates.
  • September 30, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. personal income and outlays for August, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. Consumption strength and inflation need to be read together.
  • October 2, 3:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. employment report for September. Job growth, unemployment and wages will provide new evidence on how the economy is responding to high interest rates. Times are in Turkey time.

My analysis

I do not read this week’s gains as proof that the problems facing companies have been resolved. Demand for technology may remain strong, but whether a company is a good investment depends on the relationship between its future earnings and the price paid today. When financing is expensive, I also care about how much cash a company needs to fund its growth.

Next week, I will first watch how energy prices change companies’ cost expectations, then how economic data affect Treasury yields. Slowing inflation, no sharp deterioration in employment, and buying that spreads to more companies would increase my confidence in the recovery. If interest rates fall because the economy is weakening, I would not draw the same positive conclusion; cheaper financing has to be weighed against lower earnings expectations.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.