Chip stocks' Friday rally makes it easy to identify the week's winner. Yet software stocks rose more over the full week. The strong final-day move may also be repairing earlier losses, so the weekly gain needs to be separated from the speed of the latest rally.

Technology stocks recovered in the week when the Fed raised rates, but the recovery did not spread evenly across the market. As the new week begins, my main question is whether the rise can continue despite expensive financing and energy costs. In the Sunday edition, I have collected what changed across the week rather than focusing only on daily moves.

Key takeaways

  • The chip ETF SMH rose 2.15% on Friday. Even so, its price gain between the September 11 and 18 closes was about 0.73%; IGV, which tracks software companies, gained 2.84% over the same week. Software fell on Friday but still had the stronger weekly result.
  • The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%-4% range. The decision is now behind us, but high borrowing costs will continue to affect corporate profits and equity valuations.
  • The S&P 500 finished the week down 0.1%. That result shows it is too early to generalize the technology recovery to the whole U.S. market.

What happened this week?

  • AI-safety debates pressured chip stocks at the start of the week. The subsequent recovery recovered a significant part of that initial loss. The safety debate and a decision by companies to cut investment budgets are separate developments; I do not infer lower chip demand directly from the price decline.
  • The Fed's statement says economic activity has remained strong while inflation is still elevated. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also reached 5.01% on Friday. This combination supports companies' sales while limiting expectations for a quick return to cheap financing. A stock with strong growth expectations can still be hurt by high rates.
  • Energy risk remained fresh over the weekend. Saudi Arabia said on Saturday that it had intercepted a ballistic missile directed at Riyadh by the Houthis. No new damage to an oil facility has been confirmed, but a widening of the attacks could affect energy prices through transport and insurance costs.
  • Bloomberg's weekend program emphasized that the energy pressure is also visible in refined products such as diesel. Relief in crude oil may not reach final fuel prices at the same speed; that gap matters for transport costs and company profits.
  • According to a Reuters report based on Kpler data, the number of commodity ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend fell from the previous weekend. This does not mean that the strait is fully closed; if low flows persist, delays in oil and natural-gas shipments could increase cost pressure.

What changed since the start of the week?

  • In Monday's note I expected to see a real recovery after the support in chips. That recovery formed by the weekend; I am now watching whether the gains hold and attract new buyers.

Market levels

Indexes and technology

  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed Friday at $721.36, up about 0.91% for the week. With the area around $715 holding as support, settling above $722 resistance is the first condition I will watch for the recovery to continue.
  • SMH closed at $572.67; the previous support at $557 remains important below. In his new commentary, Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) highlighted whether $580 would be cleared on Monday. As price approaches that resistance boundary, I will watch whether Friday's recovery holds after the U.S. open; approaching resistance is not the same as staying above it.
  • IGV finished the week at $104.42. Despite its weekly outperformance, being below the $106 resistance area shows that its near-term recovery is incomplete; I am watching support around $103.50 below.

Metals and crypto

  • The gold ETF GLD closed at $400.90 and rose about 0.57% for the week. The first test is the $403 resistance area above support around $398; a strong continuation requires price to move beyond that area.
  • The silver ETF SLV reached $59.93 after a weekly gain of about 3.11%. It had a stronger week than the gold ETF; the first clue for the new week will be which direction price takes out of the $59.60 support and $60.36 resistance range. These are ETF share prices, not prices per ounce.
  • Bitcoin was around $80,300 on Sunday morning. I am watching the morning low near $80,100 as nearby support. Since it remains below the previous $81,700 resistance, it is difficult to say that crypto joined Friday's equity recovery. I am watching whether this level is reclaimed without treating one instant trade as proof of persistence.

Red flags

  • Looking only at the final day of the week can make a recovery of losses look like a strong total gain. Weekly rankings alone also do not identify the winner of the new week; the current price and the resistance that has not been cleared need to be considered together.
  • High energy costs feed inflation, while strong growth can make it easier for the Fed to remain tight. I therefore do not expect good economic news always to produce lower Treasury yields and higher stock prices.

Calendar

  • September 20: U.S.-China trade talks. The scope of any new announcements will matter for technology supply chains and trade risk.
  • September 21, 4:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. equity market opens for the new week. I will watch whether Friday's gains hold.
  • September 25, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August durable-goods orders. I will follow them to assess investment demand by companies. Times are in Türkiye time.

My analysis

I do not see this week as one in which expectations for technology changed completely. Buyers returned after the initial sale. But a weekly rise does not by itself show how much profit companies will earn in the future. I assess separately whether AI investment turns into sales and profits and the price investors are paying for that expectation today. High rates make this distinction more important.

Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) links the sustainability of investment to the cash flow from a person's work. My conclusion is that long-term expectations and short-term cash needs need to be considered together. Even a strong company's stock can be at a low price when cash is needed; being able to carry a decline depends on more than choosing the right company.

The development that would change my view in the new week is the gains holding, rather than one strong opening. If I see persistence above resistance and broader participation, my confidence in the recovery will increase. If I see another rise resting on only a few chip stocks, I will keep my positive view limited to those companies.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.