Chip stocks kept rising on Friday, but software companies did not share the same optimism. As the week closes, I therefore need to separate the companies joining the rise instead of treating technology as one broadly positive trade.

Bitcoin also approached an important resistance level over the weekend. For the picture carried into Monday, it matters whether chips can hold their gains as much as whether crypto's rise continues after the initial excitement.

Key takeaways

  • A strong Nasdaq does not mean that every technology stock is recovering. The gap between the chip-company ETF SMH ($SMH) and the software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) shows that sector selection matters as much as the direction of the index.
  • Shipping costs may not fall as quickly as oil prices. If refinery problems keep diesel expensive, the relief that cheaper crude could bring to companies and consumers will remain limited.
  • A rise from support in crypto does not carry the same risk as opening a new position at resistance. A short-lived jump followed by a reversal is a possibility to keep in mind while watching the weekend move.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Compared with Thursday's close, SMH rose about 2.15% on Friday while IGV fell 1.22%. The previous day had brought a rise in which software lagged; this time the two groups moved in opposite directions.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed above the previous $720 threshold. By contrast, the decline in TLT, which tracks long-term U.S. Treasuries, suggests that the support from borrowing costs behind the stock rise has weakened.

What happened?

  • The S&P 500 rose about 0.2% at Friday's close. The Associated Press reported that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5% during the day. When yields rise, the present value of companies' future earnings falls; stocks carrying strong growth expectations need results that can offset this pressure.
  • Market commentator Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) viewed the indexes' rapid recovery of their 50-day averages and the strength in chips positively in his September 18 assessment. He continued to treat the election period and geopolitical developments as risks. The sector gap formed on Friday explains why that optimism needs to be tested across company groups.
  • In Bloomberg's September 18 Balance of Power programme, energy-market specialist Tom Kloza drew attention to refinery capacity and outage problems. Because diesel is used to move goods, pressure there can affect costs from food to industrial products. Falling crude alone does not solve the problem.
  • According to the U.S. Trade Representative's September 18 announcement, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on September 20. For trade and supply chains, the key question is whether a concrete decision is announced after the meeting.

Market levels

Indexes and technology

  • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,650.50. The 7,650 level highlighted in Tunç Şatıroğlu's (@tuncsatiroglu) earlier assessment is now nearby support to protect, with resistance at 7,720. A close just above the boundary is not yet enough to say that resistance has been decisively cleared.
  • QQQ's latest close was about $721.36. For the rise to continue, $720 needs to hold as support; Friday's high near $722 is the first short-term resistance. A move back below $720 would put the area around $715 back in focus.
  • SMH reached about $572.67. With little distance left to the $579 resistance area, I am watching the reaction at that boundary rather than expecting the same pace of rise. The area near $563 can be watched as nearby support and $557 in a wider frame.
  • IGV fell in the opposite direction from chips to about $104.42. Recovery will remain weak until $106 stops acting as resistance; if support is not found near Friday's low around $103.50, the risk of further selling rises. Strength in chips does not remove this condition for software.

Oil, Treasuries and metals

  • Brent ended Friday at $103.87. I view $100 as a possible psychological support level in a pullback; settling below it could ease energy-related pressure. Above, I watch $110 as a risk boundary that could increase inflation concerns, not as a technical resistance claim.
  • TLT fell to about $81.23. Nearby support is $81.10 and the first recovery threshold is $81.46. A rise in this fund depends on long-term Treasury prices recovering; one Fed move may not create relief across every maturity.
  • GLD ($GLD), which tracks gold, closed near $400.90. If support is found around $398, Friday's high at the $403 resistance area could be tested again. Holding above that area matters if the rise is to extend beyond a one-day move.
  • SLV ($SLV), which tracks silver, closed around $59.93. $59.60 is short-term support; while $60.36 remains resistance, Friday's upper boundary has not been cleared. Losing support could quickly give back gains in the more volatile silver market.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin was around $81,295 this morning. In his new assessment, Şatıroğlu stressed clearing $81,700 and staying above it for one or two hours. Around $80,800 is a possible short-term support level; I do not treat the first trade above resistance as confirmation on its own.
  • Ethereum was around $2,643, above the $2,550 level Şatıroğlu highlighted. It is important for $2,550 to hold in a pullback; the morning high near $2,660 is nearby resistance. Şatıroğlu ties the continuation of the rise to Bitcoin strengthening.

Red flags

  • U.S. equity markets are closed while the weekend news flow continues. Monday's opening could start at different prices rather than follow crypto's move; the two markets should not be read as moving together in real time.
  • A positive statement from trade talks is not the same as a tariff change taking effect. Likewise, diplomatic contacts about energy transport do not by themselves prove that oil flows have returned to normal.

Calendar

  • September 20: U.S.-China trade talks in New York. The scope and implementation date of any decisions will matter.
  • September 21, 4:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. equity market opens for the new week; I will watch whether strength in chips spreads to other companies.
  • September 25, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August durable-goods orders. The question is how well companies' investment demand can withstand high borrowing costs.

My analysis

I am positive about the recovery in chips, but I do not read it as relief for the whole market. AI investment is supporting hardware demand while software companies face their own revenue and profitability test. Being in the same theme does not mean having the same earnings opportunity. That is why I separate the companies joining the rise before focusing on the color of the index.

In the new week, the first thing I will watch is whether the group that strengthened on Friday can hold its gains. Then I will look for a recovery in software and for pressure on Treasury prices to ease. If these three developments appear together, I may view the rise as resting on a broader base. If only chips advance while the others remain weak, I will keep my view limited to the sector.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.