Gold rebounded this morning as the dollar weakened, while oil remained elevated because of tensions around Hormuz. For buying in precious metals to turn into a sustained advance, one condition will be that this week's U.S. inflation data do not add to rate pressure.

U.S. stock markets were closed yesterday and reopen today. That is why we do not yet know whether the strength we saw in chip stocks on Friday has carried into the new week; at the open, I will watch oil costs and buying in technology companies together.

Key takeaways

  • The dollar's weakness is giving gold buyers room. Yet as energy becomes more expensive, it is getting harder to expect inflation to fall quickly; today's reaction in precious metals needs to be assessed separately from the outlook over the next few weeks.
  • It can be misleading to read technology stocks as a single group. Chip and software companies can move in different directions, and a rising index does not mean every subsector is seeing equally strong buying.
  • Previous recovery conditions in crypto have weakened. Bitcoin and Ethereum reclaiming the thresholds they lost will be more meaningful than a short-lived relief rally.

What happened?

  • Spot gold reached $4,429.89, up 0.6%, and silver reached $66.78, up 1%, in prices reported by Bloomberg HT on the morning of September 8. The 0.4% decline in the dollar index supported demand by making these metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Silver's faster move does not by itself mean it has a stronger outlook than gold.
  • Reuters reported on September 7, citing Kpler data, that the daily average number of commodity-carrying vessels passing through Hormuz had fallen to 10 over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May. Fewer shipments make it harder for oil to reach buyers from where it is produced; even if production targets do not change, delivery costs and supply uncertainty can rise.
  • Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) said in his gold assessment that his own four-hour indicator remained positive, but that the current picture did not offer a clear opportunity for a new trade. He emphasized assessing silver's move together with gold. The practical implication is that a fast rise in one metal should not be treated as evidence that the whole group has strengthened.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Bitcoin was around $79,608 yesterday morning and around $78,780 this morning; Ethereum also fell from about $2,496 to $2,482. Both therefore remained below the first recovery thresholds we are watching. There is no new close for U.S. stocks, however; I am not interpreting Friday's figures as Monday's performance.

Market levels

Oil and precious metals

  • Brent was around $97.34 this morning. As long as it stays above the $95-$96 support zone in the previous monitoring framework, pressure from energy costs will persist; approaching $100 would weaken expectations of fresh relief. The $100 here is not an impossible ceiling, but a psychological threshold at which the price reaction will matter.
  • The gold-tracking GLD ETF ($GLD) finished Friday at $406.77. Its low of $403.96 in the same session is a support candidate, while the $408 high is first resistance; settling above $408 today would show that the morning rise in spot gold has carried into the U.S. session. A move back below the low would break Friday's range to the downside.
  • The silver-tracking SLV ETF's ($SLV) latest close was $59.82. Friday's low around $59.13 is a nearby support candidate; its $59.97 high is the first resistance. If the upper boundary is cleared in the new session while gold also strengthens, that would be a more balanced move than silver accelerating on its own.

U.S. indexes and technology

  • The SPY ETF ($SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, closed at $770.19 on Friday. Losing the $769 support candidate would also break the latest session's low; $772.87 is the first resistance from the same day's high. After the first jump at the open, which side of this range holds will matter.
  • The QQQ ETF ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $718.96, just below the $720 resistance we are watching. This boundary needs to be reclaimed for the advance to continue; $712 is prior support below. The strengthening of the technology index's positive picture depends less on the opening price than on how it behaves between these two boundaries.
  • The semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) closed at $567.01 on Friday, above the $562 support candidate. The next confirmation for a stronger recovery is $572; $545 is the downside risk boundary. Clearing the first threshold does not mean the second condition is complete.
  • The software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) trailed chips with a close of $104.57. The first resistance is $106, followed by $108; Friday's $104.36 low is a nearby support candidate below. If that low is lost, the sector's contribution to the index could weaken further.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is around $78,780. The lost $79,000 support needs to be reclaimed, followed by a sustained move above the $80,000 confirmation threshold. The longer it stays below the first threshold, the more the expectation of a recovery from the previous support loses strength.
  • Ethereum is around $2,482 and below $2,490. If this boundary is cleared again and turns into support, the first recovery condition will be met; $2,380 farther below is the previous risk boundary. Ethereum lagging while Bitcoin recovers suggests that buying has not spread across crypto.

Red flags

  • If oil remains expensive while the dollar strengthens again, gold could face pressure through two channels: buying it with other currencies would become harder, while inflation concerns would also keep rate expectations elevated.
  • If software and the broader market do not join a strong open in chips, it will be too early to read an advance carried by a few stocks as a recovery spread across the whole market.

Calendar

  • September 8, 4:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. stock markets reopen after the Labor Day holiday.
  • September 10, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI), showing changes in producer prices.
  • September 11, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI), showing consumer price pressure.
  • September 15-16: the Fed rate meeting (FOMC).

My analysis

As I watch gold's rise today, I first look at the condition behind the move: demand driven by a weaker dollar could come under pressure if rate expectations rise again. That is why, in this week's data, I will focus not only on the headline inflation rate but also on how widely price increases have spread beyond energy. If the spread remains limited, the central bank faces a different problem than it would with a broad-based increase in prices.

For stocks, today's open is the first opportunity to see how companies are responding to this cost environment. If software joins chip buying and oil eases at the same time, I can take a more positive view. If the divergence between companies deepens as energy costs rise, I will give less weight to the optimistic message coming from the index alone.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.