Precious metals led before the U.S. market opened: spot gold rose to $4,395.22 and spot silver to $65.52. Gold reached $4,416.53 during the day, bringing it close to the previous confirmation threshold of $4,425, while silver approached its $66 threshold.

Brent is below the $90 threshold at $88.62, but the risk has not fully receded. According to Bloomberg Television's August 16 program, the maximum negotiation period under the U.S.-Iran memorandum expires today; no permanent agreement or extension has been announced. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also remained at 4.68% at its latest official close.

Key takeaways

  • Spot gold rose 0.43% and spot silver 1.29%. Both confirmation thresholds are close but have not yet been cleared; if gold and silver move above $4,425 and $66 together while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stays below 4.70%, the move could turn into broader relief.
  • Brent's position below $90 limits energy pressure. But the final day of the U.S.-Iran memorandum and expectations for new economic measures are being watched at the same time; if oil moves above $90 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 4.70%, the combined pressure will grow again.
  • The U.S. cash market has not yet opened. For Friday's positive broadening signal to continue, IWM, which tracks smaller U.S. companies, must hold support at $302-$303, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ must reclaim $734.39.
  • According to the Associated Press, opening arguments and evidence in Meta's federal child-safety trial will begin on Tuesday. Four of the 29 states are participating in the first phase; the company disputes the allegations. This is event risk, not yet a verdict or penalty.

What happened?

  • Bloomberg HT's Monday morning data showed spot gold at $4,395.22, spot silver at $65.52 and Brent at $88.62. Gold and silver approached the $4,425 and $66 conditions in Tunç Şatıroğlu's (@tuncsatiroglu) August 15 technical framework on Kanal Finans; neither threshold has yet been cleared on a lasting basis.
  • Bloomberg Television's August 16 program reported that the maximum negotiation period under the U.S.-Iran memorandum expires on August 17 and that no extension has been announced. The program also cited U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement that new economic measures against Iran could be announced this week. This expectation is not a completed decision, but an open scenario for oil, transportation and sanctions risk.
  • The Associated Press reported that opening arguments and evidence for the first four states in the federal Meta trial in Oakland will begin on Tuesday. The plaintiffs are making allegations about Facebook and Instagram's design for children and their data practices; Meta denies them. The opening of a trial is not a conviction or penalty, but it could create a new flow of news for the company's shares.
  • In the completed August 14 U.S. session, the S&P 500 fell 0.17% and QQQ 0.15%, while IWM rose 0.53%. The semiconductor ETF SMH lost 0.22% and the software-company ETF IGV fell 2.00%. Monday's open will provide the first test of whether the precious-metals advance is progressing with equity participation or as demand for protection.
  • Bitcoin rose to about $63,511 and Ethereum to $1,899, while XRP held near $1.005. Crypto recovered, but Bitcoin has not yet provided confirmation at $67,000. The move in gold and silver therefore is not yet a common signal spreading across all risk assets.
  • In Turkey, the BIST 100 ended the latest session at 14,172.26. USD/TRY stood at 47.8977 on Monday morning. The 14,200 threshold for the index and 48.00 for the exchange rate continue to determine the short-term direction of local risk appetite.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent at $88.62: support at $87, first resistance at $90 and the main risk threshold at $95. Energy pressure remains limited while it stays below $90; a move above $95 would make inflation and transportation risks more pronounced.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.68% at its latest official close: support and the directional pivot at 4.65%, first resistance at 4.70% and the main risk threshold at 4.85%. A move above 4.70% would compress growth-company valuations; a break below 4.65% would broaden the scope for relief.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 ended Friday at 7,785.76: support at 7,750, the directional pivot at 7,800 and resistance at 7,850. The structure around record levels remains intact while 7,750 holds; reclaiming 7,800 would strengthen another attempt at the high.
  • QQQ closed at $731.05: support at $725, first resistance at $734.39 and the next threshold at $740. Technology leadership remains intact above $725; fresh momentum is not confirmed until $734.39 is cleared.
  • IWM ended Friday at $305.09: a support zone at $302-$303, the directional pivot at $305 and resistance at $310. Staying above $305 would show that participation is broadening; a break below $302 would erase Friday's positive divergence.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH closed at $587.78: support at $585, first resistance at $590.15 and the main confirmation threshold at $600. The semiconductor structure remains positive while $585 holds; a strong continuation signal does not emerge until $600 is cleared.
  • IGV fell to $104.18 on Friday: support at $103.70, the first recovery level at $106.30 and a second threshold at $108. A break below $103.70 would broaden the pressure on software; reclaiming $106.30 would begin to repair Friday's loss.
  • Meta closed Friday at $589.76: nearby support and the directional zone at $589.34-$590, first resistance at $601.78 and the lower risk line at $580. Holding $590 after the trial news would limit company-specific pressure; a break below $580 would make the weakness more pronounced.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin near $63,511: support at $62,000 and the main confirmation threshold at $67,000; if support breaks, $58,000 is the next risk area. Until $67,000 is reclaimed, crypto is not confirming the equity and metals moves together.
  • Ethereum near $1,899 and XRP near $1.005: support at $1,850 and the recovery level at $1,925 for ETH; lower support at $0.92 and first confirmation at $1.07 for XRP. The improvement in crypto remains limited until the upper thresholds are cleared.
  • Spot gold rose to $4,395.22 and reached $4,416.53 during the day: support at $4,350, the directional pivot at $4,400 and the confirmation threshold at $4,425. The gold ETF GLD ended the latest session at $401.45; holding $400 while spot gold remains above $4,425 would confirm the advance.
  • Spot silver approached the $66 threshold at $65.52: support at $64 and resistance and confirmation at $66. A move above $66 would broaden participation in metals; a break below $64 would weaken Monday morning's momentum.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100's latest close was 14,172.26: a support and directional zone at 14,133-14,200, first resistance at 14,250 and the next threshold at 14,300. Another close above 14,200 would strengthen the advance; a break below 14,133 would reduce confidence in the breakout.
  • USD/TRY stood at 47.8977: a support zone at 47.70-47.82, with resistance and the risk threshold at 48.00. Remaining below 48.00 preserves the short-term balance; a move above the threshold would increase local inflation and risk-premium pressure.

Red flags

  • If gold and silver fail to clear $4,425 and $66 and then lose support at $4,350 and $64 respectively, Monday's advance will remain short-lived demand for protection rather than a lasting breakout.
  • If the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and Brent move above 4.70% and $90 together, growth companies will face financing and energy pressure at the same time. A 4.85% Treasury yield and Brent at $95 are the thresholds for a harsher risk regime.
  • If IWM falls below $302, QQQ below $725 and IGV loses $103.70, Friday's broadening signal will break down. In that case, the company-specific pressure from the Meta trial will meet a weaker technology backdrop.
  • If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $67,000 and breaks support at $62,000, the $58,000 risk area opens. That break would make it harder to interpret the metals advance as a broad risk-appetite signal.

Calendar

  • Monday, August 17, 4:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. cash market opens. The first equity pricing of the weekend's Iran and Meta developments and the morning move in metals will be visible.
  • Tuesday, August 18, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July import and export prices. The pass-through of energy pressure into trade prices will be monitored.
  • Tuesday, August 18, 4:15 p.m. TRT: U.S. July industrial production. The report will test whether weakness in consumption is spreading into production.
  • Tuesday, August 18: opening arguments and evidence begin in the federal Meta trial in Oakland. The allegations by the first four states and Meta's defense will be monitored.
  • Wednesday, August 19, 9:00 p.m. TRT: minutes from the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. The committee's balance between inflation and growth could influence the direction of the 4.70% Treasury-yield threshold.

My analysis

My base case is that the market is pricing partial demand for protection. Gold and silver are rising while Brent remains below $90 and Bitcoin above $62,000, which does not indicate a complete flight from risk. Because U.S. equities have not yet opened, it is too early to view the morning move as a shift in direction spreading across all assets.

Clean confirmation would come if gold and silver clear $4,425 and $66 while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stays below 4.70% and Brent below $90. If Treasury yields and oil also break resistance while metals rise, pricing will shift away from interest-rate relief and toward protection from inflation and geopolitical risk.

On the equity side, Friday's broadening will continue if IWM stays above $303 while QQQ reclaims $734.39 and IGV $106.30. If those conditions hold, the Meta trial can remain a company-specific issue; if technology thresholds break at the same time, the news will feed weaker risk appetite.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.