Gold and silver are falling ahead of the Fed's decision, making the distinction between approaching support and ending a decline important again. The key question today is not whether the price has become cheap, but whether buyers will end the decline.

There is no single technology story in U.S. stocks. Chip companies fell sharply while software stocks rose; the same artificial intelligence debate can affect companies' future revenue in different ways. With the rate decision approaching, I am watching both this divergence and the conditions for a recovery in metals.

Key takeaways

  • Because gold pays no interest, it can struggle against high Treasury yields. Rising geopolitical risk may support demand for safe-haven assets, but that demand does not always offset the pressure created by interest rates. So it is not enough to conclude that gold will rise simply from the weight of the news.
  • Support is not the point where price must turn; it is the area where we watch whether selling is being absorbed. Reclaiming important levels after the first rise will help distinguish a stronger recovery from the brief reaction seen during the decline.
  • The Fed's message for subsequent meetings matters as much as any possible rate change. Forecasts and the press conference after a single decision can reverse the direction of the first price move; an expectation ahead of the meeting is not yet an actual decision.

What happened?

  • During Monday's session, the semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) fell about 4.8% while the software-company fund IGV ($IGV) rose 5%. This divergence after the debate over slowing the pace of artificial intelligence development shows that technology stocks are not all being priced the same way. The price move does not prove that companies have already changed their investment budgets.
  • Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) separates his view of holding current positions in gold and silver from the conditions he wants to see before making new purchases. He wants a bounce from the support zone to clear higher levels; his approach is more cautious than treating every decline as a direct buying opportunity.
  • According to Reuters' September 15 report, attacks in the region are raising supply concerns while Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline remains closed. Disruption to the route that bypasses Hormuz is adding to the problem for oil shipments; the date when the pipeline will reopen is still uncertain.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday we were discussing how chips and software could react differently; now we can see that divergence in a completed U.S. session. SMH closed below its previous $557 support, while IGV reclaimed $106. So today's focus will be whether these two moves hold before we call for a broad technology recovery.

Market levels

Gold and silver

  • Spot gold was around $4,285.91 in Reuters' report this morning. Şatıroğlu identifies $4,275-$4,285 as the first support zone, with $4,225 below. He sees a move above $4,400 as confirmation that a recovery from the current area is strengthening. The distance between these levels shows why being close to support alone is not enough to confirm a fresh buy.
  • Spot silver was around $62.99 in the same report. The first support is around $62.67-$63, with $60.70-$60.85 as the lower zone. Şatıroğlu sees a move above $66 as stronger confirmation when a rebound starts from current levels. Losing the lower zone would raise the risk of a larger decline.

U.S. stocks diverge

  • The SPY ETF ($SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, finished Monday at $760.88. The $760 line held at the close, although the price fell below it during the session. Monday's low of $757.93 is a nearby support candidate; until the $770 resistance is cleared, it is too early to call for clear strength in the broad index.
  • The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ ($QQQ) fell back below $712 with a $709.18 close. That level is now the first threshold to reclaim, followed by $720. Monday's low of $702.74 is a support candidate below. The intraday recovery has not yet secured a return to the previous range.
  • The semiconductor ETF SMH closed at $541.50. It finished just above the main support at $540, even though it traded below it during the session. $557 is now the first important resistance in a recovery. If support fails in a new decline, the loss following Friday's rise could deepen.
  • The software-company ETF IGV rose to $106.64. For this positive divergence to continue, the reclaimed $106 needs to hold as support and the $108 resistance needs to be cleared. A one-day rise in the fund does not mean all software companies will gain by the same amount.

Oil and Treasuries

  • Brent was $106.93 in Reuters' report this morning. $110 is psychological resistance, while $105.69 is a support candidate from Monday's close. High oil prices keep alive the risk that energy costs will pass through to other prices; a brief pullback does not show that supply problems have been solved.
  • TLT, which tracks long-dated U.S. Treasuries, rose slightly to close at $80.93. $80.46 from Monday's range is a support candidate, and $81.36 is a resistance candidate. If the recovery in Treasury prices continues, it could also give room to technology stocks whose future earnings are discounted at high interest rates.

Red flags

  • If the Fed signals that rates will stay high for longer than expected and the dollar strengthens, selling in metals could continue. In that case, looking at the first price jump and assuming the news has passed could be misleading.
  • If software's rise remains concentrated in a small group of companies while selling in chips spreads to the broad index, the protective effect of this divergence could be limited. Alongside the gap between sectors, it will matter how many companies participate in the rise.

Calendar

  • September 16, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August retail sales. The path of household spending will be important for assessing the growth outlook before the Fed decision later that evening.
  • September 15-16: the Fed rate meeting; on September 16, the decision and economic projections are at 9 p.m., followed by the press conference at 9:30 p.m. TRT. The messages after the decision will shape not only that day's rate but also the financing conditions expected in the following months.

My analysis

A long-term positive view on gold or silver does not mean every decline will be met with buyers in the short term. What matters to me is whether the price can keep recovering after the Fed's message. If even a softer-than-expected decision fails to bring in buyers, I will take that weakness seriously. The alternative risks treating an expectation as if it were a completed turn. The continuation of the first move after the Fed matters at least as much as the initial reaction.

Monday's divergence in technology is striking: concern about chip demand did not require software to fall in the same direction. Still, it will take companies' order, spending and revenue disclosures to say that this is a lasting change. In the coming days, I will look beyond the index's direction to the gap between companies with improving earnings expectations and those feeling the pressure of high rates more heavily.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.