Because the expanded U.S. sanctions on Iran have not yet physically cut oil flows, Brent held around $92.10 on the morning of August 25. But the pullback has not ended energy risk: price is still above the $90 pressure line.

Treasury yields eased at the August 24 close, but technology did not. As the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.704% and the 30-year yield to 5.231%, the S&P 500 fell to 7,652.86, the Nasdaq Composite to 25,980.19 and the semiconductor ETF SMH to $546.80. The market will now look less at a stronger result and more at Nvidia's forward outlook and whether artificial-intelligence spending is broadening.

Key takeaways

  • Chips falling harder than the main indexes shows that relief in energy and rates has not yet resolved technology risk.
  • Bitcoin rose to about $80,525 on the morning of August 25, but the move was not confirmed by equity breadth.
  • After Nvidia's results, the real test will not be the one-day reaction to the release but whether chips and small companies recover together.
  • The August 26 PCE price index, the August 27-29 Jackson Hole meetings and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's August 28 speech will test how rate expectations feed into technology valuations.

What happened?

  • According to Associated Press (@AP) reporting on August 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions warning countries that continue trading with Iran that they could be excluded from the dollar-based financial system. The AP also reported that the harshest secondary sanctions were not all activated immediately. The oil risk is therefore a scenario tied to the scope of sanctions, not a realized supply cut.
  • Reuters' August 24 market summary said U.S. stocks fell led by technology shares and that the sanctions debate kept the oil channel alive. Brent's pullback does not mean geopolitical risk has left pricing.
  • According to Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) data, the Russell 2000 fell to 2,995.08 at the August 24 close, QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, fell to $706.32 and IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, fell to $297.97. This split between large indexes and small companies shows that the recovery is not yet broad-based.
  • The shared question in CNBC (@CNBC)'s Mad Money broadcast and Yahoo Finance programs was how AI investment will pass through the filters of electricity, capacity, financing and conversion into profit. That question suggests the chip selloff cannot be explained by rate moves alone.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was about $92.10 on the morning of August 25, above the $90 support and pressure line. A move below $90 would ease inflation and rate pressure; a move above $95 would show energy risk expanding again and create a new resistance area.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.704% on August 24. Support is 4.65%, the threshold is 4.70% and the risk level is 4.85%; sustained trading below 4.70% would give technology valuations room to breathe, while staying above it keeps pressure alive.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.231%. Below 5.00% would mean relief in long-term borrowing costs; above 5.35% would create a new pressure area for valuations.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed August 24 at 7,652.86. Support and the first recovery line are 7,750, the pivot is 7,800 and resistance is 7,850; broad index recovery is not confirmed until 7,750 is reclaimed.
  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $706.32. Support and the first recovery line are $725, resistance is $734.56 and the next threshold is $740; technology leadership is not reconfirmed until $725 is cleared.
  • IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, is at $297.97. The support and reclaim zone is $302-$303, the pivot is $305 and resistance is $310; staying below $302 keeps market participation narrow.

Themes and stocks

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH closed at $546.80 on August 24. Support and the first recovery line are $585 and resistance is $600; until $585 is cleared, semiconductor risk cannot be considered resolved before Nvidia's earnings.
  • The software-company ETF IGV is at $102.45. Support and the reclaim line are $103.70, resistance is $106.30 and the risk area is $101; trading above $103.70 would signal easing rate sensitivity.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) closed at $208.48. The key support and resistance test for the stock will be less its price band before August 26 and more the company's forward outlook and whether demand is spreading beyond a few large customers.
  • Meta finished August 24 at $559.02. Support and the reclaim line are $580 and resistance is $590; staying below this area is a reminder that the technology recovery is not distributed evenly across companies.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin ($BTC) was about $80,525 on the morning of August 25. The $72,000 area is the watch and support zone, while about $83,000 is upper resistance; until QQQ and SMH recover, the rise in crypto does not count as broad-market confirmation on its own.
  • Ethereum was about $2,499.48 and XRP about $1.5213; both are morning observations with high volatility. Recent daily ranges can be watched as short-term support and resistance, but I do not read a single crypto move as confirmation from equities.
  • The gold ETF ($GLD) finished August 24 at $426.69, above the $400 support area, while the silver ETF SLV finished at $62.20, above the $58 support area. The resilience of precious metals does not remove the valuation pressure that remains stubborn in technology.

Red flags

  • If Brent moves above $95 or the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 4.85%, oil and rates will again pressure technology valuations in the same direction.
  • If QQQ fails to reclaim $725, SMH $585, IWM $302 or IGV $103.70, the reaction in large technology stocks will not prove a recovery spreading across the market.
  • Even if Nvidia's results are strong, if forward guidance does not show demand broadening and SMH remains below $585, the AI-spending narrative will struggle to generate price support.

Calendar

  • August 26, 3:30 p.m. TRT: The BEA will release its second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays data alongside company earnings. The PCE price index is a key part of the rate-expectations picture.
  • August 27, 12:00 a.m. TRT: Nvidia's second-quarter results call, scheduled for August 26 at 5:00 p.m. ET, will take place. The company's outlook and demand breadth will determine the direction of the chip selloff.
  • August 27-29: The Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Policy communication will be watched for its implications for long-term Treasury yields and technology valuations.
  • August 28, 5:00 p.m. TRT: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will give an opening speech at Jackson Hole. At the same time, the BLS will release preliminary annual benchmark revisions and first-quarter QCEW data.

My analysis

Even as oil and long-term yields pull back, the concentration of the August 24 selloff in chips suggests that investors are asking two separate questions at once: is inflation and financing pressure easing, and how much of the investment spending for AI will convert into broad revenue?

In the positive scenario, the first confirmation would be Brent settling below $90 and the 10-year yield below 4.70%; the second would be QQQ reclaiming $725, SMH $585 and IWM $302. The third would be Nvidia's forward outlook stopping the chip selloff and turning it into broader market participation.

Until these filters appear, I do not read strength in Bitcoin and gold as general buying appetite. The shared question in the CNBC and Yahoo Finance discussions is the same: even if several large cloud companies continue investing, are electricity, financing and return pressures preventing chip demand from spreading to a broader customer base? The answer will appear less in the earnings number than in the company's forward outlook and the sector's reaction.

Sources

  • Reuters, August 24 U.S. stocks, oil, Treasury yields and Iran sanctions: ae.marketscreener.com
  • Reuters, August 25 sanctions, dollar system and Treasury headlines: investing.com
  • Associated Press, August 24 Iran sanctions and secondary-sanctions status: apnews.com
  • Yahoo Finance chart data, August 24 closes and August 25 morning Brent, Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP observations: query2.finance.yahoo.com
  • BEA official calendar, August 26 GDP, company earnings and Personal Income and Outlays: bea.gov
  • Nvidia Investor Relations, August 26 second-quarter results call: investor.nvidia.com
  • Kansas City Fed, August 27-29 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: kansascityfed.org
  • Federal Reserve official calendar, August 28 Kevin Warsh speech: federalreserve.gov
  • BLS official calendar, August 28 benchmark and QCEW data: bls.gov
  • Kanal Finans, Final Warning in Gold and Silver, dC7XvBlaLqU, August 24, 2026, YouTube auto-captions: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Mad Money 08/24/26 - Audio Only, huifQNbjJ4c, August 25, 2026, YouTube auto-captions: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance, Daily Market Coverage - August 24, 2026, etWGLvjywmI, August 24, 2026, YouTube auto-captions: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance, 14 straight beats. Nvidia's stock fell after the last 4., SlfxZDsMei4, August 24, 2026, YouTube auto-captions: youtu.be
  • Bloomberg Television, Markets Slip as Nvidia, Yields and the Debasement Trade Loom, WqbFb-4lbZY, August 24, 2026, YouTube auto-captions: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.