Brent staying above $100 makes today's U.S. producer inflation data more important. How much these higher energy costs feed into companies' expenses and consumer prices is one of the questions facing investors waiting for the Fed's rate decision.

Technology companies are not reacting the same way. Chip stocks are holding up better than the broader market while software weakens; Apple's new phones also show why the growth of AI requires more advanced hardware.

Key takeaways

  • Non-energy components matter as much as the headline increase in the inflation data. Cost increases driven by oil and price pressures spreading into services do not have the same implications for rate expectations.
  • It is too early to say the resilience in chips has spread across the technology sector. A recovery in software would be a stronger sign that more companies are joining the advance.
  • In crypto, a brief move above a single price is not enough. A close above the resistance zone followed by continued buying would mean more than the initial jump.

What happened?

  • In its September 9 outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz to continue through the final quarter of the year. That forecast makes it harder to assume supply will normalize quickly. A prolonged disruption could keep companies' energy costs high while reducing what consumers can spend on other things.
  • Apple said on September 9 that its iPhone 18 Pro models would use the A20 Pro chip. The new chip combines more advanced manufacturing technology with higher memory bandwidth. CNBC's report from Apple Park also points to limits on memory and production capacity. AI running on the phone adds another source of chip demand; how much of that demand becomes supplier profit depends on costs and sales volume.
  • Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) expects the index to rise again if oil declines in his latest Nasdaq assessment; he keeps his views on chip and software funds separate. For that conditional expectation to play out, relief in energy markets must show up in prices.

What changed since yesterday?

  • The software fund closed below the low of the previous session we were watching yesterday. The chip fund made another close above the threshold under review. Bitcoin's latest assessment shifts from a single confirmation price to a wider resistance zone, so clearing the previous short-term threshold alone will not be enough.

Market levels

U.S. indexes and technology

  • The $SPY ETF tracking the S&P 500 finished Wednesday at $762.40. The day's low of $760.94 is the first short-term support; until the $765.14 resistance is reclaimed, the earlier loss cannot be considered recovered. This range can help distinguish the broader market's response to the data.
  • The $QQQ ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 closed at $716.31. Sustaining a move above $720 would confirm renewed strength; a move below $712 would break support and turn the sideways picture lower.
  • The semiconductor ETF $SMH ended the day at $574.29. The $572 level followed by Şatıroğlu is now a support candidate. Wednesday's $577.57 high is near resistance. If $572 is lost, the area down to $562 will matter again.
  • The software-company ETF $IGV fell to $101.83. The first threshold to reclaim is $102.08; $101.76 is short-term support from the low. A broader recovery requires clearing the previous resistance levels at $106 and $108.

Oil and precious metals

  • Brent is around $101 this morning. As it remains above the psychological $100 threshold, a return first to the $95-$96 support zone will matter for more meaningful relief. I do not see this range as a price ceiling; a new disruption in shipping could make oil even more expensive.
  • The gold ETF $GLD closed at $403.35. $401.18, the support from Wednesday's low, and $406.56, the high from the same session, define the range. If the upper boundary is cleared, $408 becomes the next resistance; losing the lower boundary would make it harder to preserve the latest rally.
  • The silver ETF $SLV closed at $60.72, above the previous session's close. The support to preserve the short-term gain is $60.16; around $61.71 is the resistance to clear. A move above this range would open room for further gains.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is around $78,419 this morning. In Şatıroğlu's latest assessment, the resistance zone is $81,853-$83,220, with $82,500 roughly at its midpoint. He also wants to see the rise continue after a four-hour close. The main lower boundary is $76,685; losing this support would increase the risk of a deeper sell-off.
  • Ethereum is around $2,480, below the $2,530-$2,576 resistance zone. Recovery remains limited until that zone is cleared; losing the $2,380 support would increase downside risk. Even if Bitcoin recovers, whether Ethereum can clear its own resistance needs to be watched separately.

Red flags

  • If non-energy inflation also accelerates while oil stays high, companies could face pressure from both input and borrowing costs. The combination would create a tougher picture than higher energy prices alone.
  • As demand for AI hardware grows, supply and production costs may rise as well. A strong product announcement alone does not mean higher profit margins or that the stock is cheap.

Calendar

  • September 10, 2:00 p.m. TRT: CBRT interest-rate decision. The decision and its inflation assessment could change rate expectations for Turkish lira assets.
  • September 10, 3:30 p.m. TRT: August U.S. PPI. We will watch the breadth of the rise in producer prices and costs outside energy.
  • September 11, 3:30 p.m. TRT: August U.S. CPI. The spread of consumer-price increases will be assessed alongside today's producer-price data.
  • September 15-16: Fed rate meeting (FOMC) and economic projections. We will see how the data affect the rate decision and expectations for the period that follows.

My analysis

Today I will first look at which components drove inflation, then at how long the market's reaction lasts. The August data do not include the latest oil increase in September. That means a good report would not eliminate the pressure energy costs could create over the coming months; with a bad report, I also would not assume the problem comes only from oil.

I will keep watching the strength in chips, but I would want two developments together before taking a more comfortable view of the broader market: lower energy costs and a rally that spreads into software. In that setting, companies could get support on both the sales and cost sides. Until those things happen, I do not want to draw the same conclusion for the whole market from just a few strong stocks.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.