Brent crude fell about 4% on Friday to close at $96.78, while the official US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.69%. Despite that relief, the Nasdaq lost 0.6% and closed below 25,000. SMH fell 3.3%, Micron 7% and Intel 7.9%.

The first relief in oil and yields helped the broader market hold up, but it did not repair the damage in semiconductors. The S&P 500 finished close to flat, while the equal-weighted index ended the week slightly higher. The sell-off did not spread across every stock with the same force.

Two events will set the direction next week: the Fed's July 29 interest-rate decision and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. The central question is whether the scale of AI investment can turn back into a revenue story, or whether concerns about cash flow and returns on investment will broaden the technology sell-off.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 gained less than 0.1% to close at 7,411.98, while the Dow Jones rose 0.5% to 51,947.25. The Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 24,975.82 and the Russell 2000 declined 0.3% to 2,930. Weekly losses were 2.1% for the Nasdaq, 0.6% for the S&P 500, 0.4% for the Dow and 1.1% for the Russell 2000.
  • After reaching $102 the previous day, Brent crude fell about 4% on Friday to close at $96.78. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.69% and the 30-year yield to 5.16%. Together, those moves provided the first relief from pressure on energy and financing costs.
  • QQQ ($QQQ) fell 1.1% to $684.23, while SMH, the semiconductor ETF ($SMH), lost 3.3% to close at $561.19. Micron ($MU) fell 7% to $920.95 and Intel ($INTC) lost 7.9% to $92.32. Oil retreated, but the selling pressure within technology continued.
  • Alphabet ($GOOGL) gained 0.7% to close at $319.74, while Tesla ($TSLA) fell 2.1% to $313.03. Large technology stocks did not move in the same direction. The market is pricing companies with heavy AI investment separately according to their earnings and cash-flow outlook.
  • Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) reported that about 350 stocks in the S&P 500 rose, while 150 fell. The equal-weighted S&P 500 also finished the week slightly higher, showing that the selling was concentrated in mega-cap technology and semiconductor stocks.
  • GLD, the gold ETF ($GLD), gained 0.1% to $371.90, while SLV, the silver ETF ($SLV), rose 1% to $52.59. The decline in oil and Treasury yields did not weaken precious metals materially, but it did not produce a new safe-haven rally either.
  • The BIST 100 fell 0.95% to close at 13,943.87, while USD/TRY was near 47.34 in the evening. The index moved back below 14,000 as the currency approached the 47.35-47.50 resistance area.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press, Brent's decline from $102 to $96.78 supported US stocks during the session. The pullback in oil is the first positive development to limit inflation and Fed pressure. Conflict with Iran and risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain, however, so it is too early to treat this as lasting relief.
  • Bloomberg Television's Balance of Power showed calls for a diplomatic solution alongside the continuing military tension between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump's "locked and loaded" message was a threat, not a confirmed new attack. For weekend pricing, the key signal will be whether Brent returns to the $98-$100 area rather than the rhetoric itself.
  • Yahoo Finance showed that Friday produced two different markets. The Dow and the broader market benefited from lower oil, while the Nasdaq fell below 25,000 after semiconductor selling intensified late in the session. This does not mean risk appetite has disappeared. It means investors are becoming more selective within technology.
  • Micron and Intel were the sharpest examples of semiconductor weakness. Micron fell 7% and Intel 7.9%, while SMH lost the $574-$580 support area it had held the previous day. Intel's failure to preserve its initial post-earnings rise shows that strong revenue or an optimistic outlook does not automatically create price support.
  • According to Reuters, Intel fell despite stronger-than-expected revenue and profit guidance. Investors are pricing not only the results, but also capital expenditure, returns on manufacturing investment and high costs across the industry. AI demand may remain strong, but it is becoming more visible that not every investment will generate cash at the same pace.
  • AMD CEO Lisa Su told Yahoo Finance that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong and capacity investments are planned 12 to 24 months in advance. This is management's view, not independent proof of demand. It still shows that investors will look beyond the size of spending in the next earnings reports and ask how much revenue and cash those investments produce.
  • The market did not place every technology company in the same basket this week. Alphabet gained 0.7% on Friday, while Tesla fell 2.1%, Micron 7% and Intel 7.9%. This split does not mean the AI story is over. It means investors are adding "how much cash does this investment generate?" to the question "how much was invested?"
  • The US administration's announcement of new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies was a reminder that inflation risk is not only about energy, even as oil retreats. If tariffs raise corporate costs and consumer prices, the Fed may have less room to ease.
  • Next week is crowded for technology. Microsoft and Meta report on July 29, followed by Apple and Amazon on July 30. The Fed will also deliver its interest-rate decision. Friday's oil relief matters, but earnings and Fed confirmation are still needed before calling an end to the Nasdaq and semiconductor sell-off.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $96.78. The first support is $95-$96, followed by $92-$93. The first resistance is $98-$100, with the next risk area at $102. Staying below $98 could limit inflation and rate pressure. A return above $100 would reverse Friday's relief.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.69%. Support is at 4.65%-4.67%, while 4.71%-4.75% is the resistance and risk area. The larger pressure threshold is 5%. A move below 4.67% would offer the first support for technology, while a rise above 4.75% would show valuation pressure strengthening again.
  • The US 30-year Treasury yield is at 5.16%. Support is at 5.10%-5.15%, with the first resistance at 5.20%. Holding above 5.20% would show that long-term financing costs remain high. A move below 5.15% would extend Friday's bond-market relief.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,411.98. The first support is 7,400, followed by 7,350. The first resistance is 7,450, with 7,500 the stronger recovery level. The index held above 7,400, but it is too early to say the weekly loss has been repaired before 7,450 is reclaimed.
  • The Nasdaq is at 24,975.82. The first threshold and level to reclaim is 25,000, followed by support at 24,700-24,500. The first strong resistance is 25,300. Friday's semiconductor selling will keep pressure on the short-term outlook while the index remains below 25,000.
  • QQQ is at $684.23. The first support is $682-$684, followed by $675-$680. The first resistance is $690, with $700-$705 the stronger rebound area. It is too early to say the large-technology sell-off is over before $690 is reclaimed.
  • IWM, the small-cap ETF ($IWM), is at $291.17. The first support is $290, followed by $285. The first resistance is $294, with $300 the stronger continuation threshold. Holding up better than the Nasdaq is constructive, but a new small-cap rally is not confirmed before $294 is cleared.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $561.19. The first support is $556-$560, followed by $550. The first resistance and area to reclaim is $574-$580, with $590 the stronger recovery level. Short-term damage in semiconductors remains while SMH stays below $574.
  • Micron is at $920.95. Support is at $900-$920, followed by $880. The first resistance is $950-$970, with $990-$1,000 the stronger recovery area. Holding above $900 is the first defence. A move above $950 would show the selling beginning to stabilise.
  • Intel is at $92.32. Support is at $90-$92, followed by $88. The first resistance is $96, with $100-$102 the stronger recovery area. The initial post-earnings rise did not hold. Price action is not confirming the results before $96 is reclaimed.
  • Alphabet is at $319.74. The first support is $315, followed by $310. The first resistance is $325-$330, with $342 the stronger area. A move above $325 would show the market refocusing on cloud growth. A fall below $315 would increase concerns about capital spending and cash flow.
  • Tesla is at $313.03. The first support is $305-$310, with the main support at $300. The first resistance is $315-$320, followed by a stronger rebound area at $325-$330. The post-earnings selling pressure is not resolved before $320 is reclaimed.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $64,050. The first support is $64,000, followed by $63,600. The first resistance is $65,800, with $67,900-$68,000 the stronger continuation area. Holding $64,000 matters, but a new upward impulse is not confirmed before $65,800 is cleared.
  • Ethereum is near $1,858. The first support is $1,850, followed by $1,800. The first resistance is $1,900-$1,920, with $1,970-$2,000 the stronger area. Holding above $1,850 preserves the structure, while a move above $1,920 would signal renewed strength.
  • XRP is near $1.09. Support is at $1.08-$1.09, followed by $1.05. The first resistance is $1.10-$1.12, with $1.16 the stronger continuation threshold. Until $1.12 is cleared, the price remains between support and resistance.
  • GLD is at $371.90. Support is at $370-$372, the first resistance at $375 and the stronger rebound area at $382. SLV is at $52.59, with support at $52 and $50, and resistance at $53-$54 and $55. Precious metals held up on Friday, but these resistance levels need to be cleared for a new advance.

Türkiye

  • The BIST 100 is at 13,943.87. The first support is 13,900, followed by 13,750. The first resistance is 14,000, with 14,200 the stronger recovery level. The index closed below 14,000. The short-term outlook will not strengthen before it moves back above that level.
  • USD/TRY is near 47.34. Support is at 47.00, with resistance at 47.35-47.50. A move above 47.50 would show currency and inflation pressure increasing. A pullback toward 47.00 would point to a calmer start to the week.

Red flags

  • If Brent moves back above $100 while the US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.75%, energy and financing costs would pressure technology stocks at the same time.
  • If the Nasdaq falls below 24,700, QQQ below $682 and SMH below $556 together, Friday's semiconductor selling would carry into next week and the damage within technology would broaden.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,400 and IWM loses $290 at the same time, the view that the selling is confined to mega-cap technology and semiconductor stocks would weaken.
  • Any new attack involving the Strait of Hormuz, energy facilities or commercial shipping could quickly reverse Friday's decline in oil.
  • If the Fed delivers a more hawkish message because of oil and tariffs while mega-cap companies raise capital spending without supporting their cash-flow outlook, technology valuations could come under renewed pressure.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,900 while USD/TRY moves above 47.50, global risk and currency pressure would strengthen together in Türkiye.

Calendar

  • July 25-26 weekend: News surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and energy shipments will be monitored. The first signal for Monday's open will be whether Brent returns to the $98-$100 area.
  • July 28-29: The Fed will hold its interest-rate meeting. The decision is due at 9:00 pm TRT on July 29, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference at 9:30 pm. The focus will be less on the rate decision itself and more on whether oil and tariffs have changed the inflation outlook.
  • After the close on July 29: Microsoft and Meta report. Cloud growth, AI investment, free cash flow and messages about returns on investment will be central to technology pricing.
  • After the close on July 30: Apple and Amazon report. Device demand and services revenue will be watched at Apple, while AWS growth and data-centre investment will be the focus at Amazon.

My analysis

Friday did not reverse Thursday's sell-off. It changed its composition. Lower oil and Treasury yields helped the Dow and the broader market hold up. The Nasdaq still fell below 25,000, SMH lost its $574-$580 support and semiconductor stocks began searching for a new floor.

That split matters. We saw that easing macro pressure does not automatically lift every technology stock. Investors are focusing less on whether AI demand exists and more on how much revenue, cash and return on investment it produces for each company.

It would still be a mistake to put the entire AI chain in one basket. Cloud providers, chipmakers, memory companies and data-centre suppliers have different revenue models and investment burdens. Friday's move did not remove that distinction. It showed that company-level price confirmation has become harder to earn.

The first positive scenario for next week is clear: Brent stays below $98, the 10-year yield moves below 4.67%, QQQ reclaims $690 and SMH recovers the $574-$580 area. In that case, the semiconductor sell-off could remain a sharp repricing without broader market damage.

The negative scenario is Brent moving back above $100 and the 10-year yield above 4.75%, while QQQ loses $682 and the S&P 500 loses 7,400. If that combination develops, pressure within technology could spread across the market through energy costs, financing costs and risk appetite.

With the Fed and four mega-cap earnings reports arriving in the same week, it is difficult to place too much weight on any single data point. I am therefore looking for price confirmation rather than predicting direction. The key decision areas for next week are Nasdaq 25,000, QQQ $690, SMH $574-$580, Brent $98-$100 and the 10-year yield at 4.67%-4.75%.

Sources

This material is for research and monitoring purposes only and is not investment advice.