Brent rose 5% to $87.72 on Monday, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield returned to 4.70%. Yet the S&P 500 fell only 0.1%. This should not be read as a broad selloff because the pressure did not spread across every area. The headline picture is calm, but the market is active beneath the surface: QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, fell 0.3% and semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) lost 2.3%, while software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) rose 2.3% and SpaceX ($SPCX) gained 4.2%.

Mutual compensation demands from Iran and the United States have again deadlocked the Hormuz talks. Washington has turned back to financial pressure. Associated Press (@AP) reported that the talks had stalled and the strait remained largely closed.

In his August 10 assessment, Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) argued that a new oil-inflation regime would not be confirmed while Brent remained below $100; he watched the roughly $80-$95 range as an interim equilibrium area. Brent at $87.78 this morning remains inside that range, but the rising Treasury yield is narrowing the room for relief.

Key takeaways

  • Brent rose 5% to $87.72 at Monday's close; it is at $87.78 this morning. $90 is the first stress threshold, $95 the risk line and $100 the main boundary that could change the oil-inflation regime.
  • QQQ fell to $720.81 and SMH to $569.46. QQQ held above support at $717; SMH lost $575, confirming pressure in semiconductors.
  • IGV rose to $105.02, SPCX to $138.68, gold ETF GLD ($GLD) to $402.56 and SLV as high as $59.43. Even growth themes moved in different directions during the same session.
  • Bitcoin ($BTC) fell below its first support at $64,400 to about $64,012. Ethereum is about $1,875, below $1,890; XRP is at $1.009, just above the main $1.00 line.

What happened?

  • Associated Press reported that before opening Hormuz, Iran wanted the U.S. blockade and sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and compensation paid for war damage. Trump responded with a counterclaim for compensation on behalf of the United States.
  • According to AP's August 11 report, Washington returned to a strategy of sanctions and financial pressure; the intermittent talks stalled again. Energy flows through Hormuz therefore remain a subject of negotiation.
  • In Turkey, the BIST 100 ended Monday 0.23% higher at 13,811.60; dollar/TL was about 47.7379 this morning. Brent's jump made imported energy costs a separate checkpoint for the local market.
  • CNBC Market Close, Bloomberg The Close and Yahoo Finance Live highlighted the pressure from oil and long-term yields, as well as the sector divergence beneath a calm index headline.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is about $87.78. The first support is $85, with near resistance at $90, the risk line at $95 and the main regime threshold at $100. Holding above $90 would increase energy-cost pressure; below $85 would indicate that Monday's risk premium was beginning to unwind.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended Monday at 4.70%. Support is at 4.65%, with the directional threshold at 4.70% and the main risk boundary at 4.85%. Holding above 4.70% would narrow the valuation room for growth stocks; below 4.65% would provide relief ahead of CPI.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,753.11. The first holding area is 7,750, main support is 7,700 and resistance is 7,800. If 7,750 holds and 7,800 is cleared, the record area will strengthen again; below 7,700 would broaden the correction.
  • QQQ is at $720.81. Support is at $717, resistance and the continuation threshold at $725, and the main risk line at $708.50. A move above $725 would repair technology leadership; losing $717 would spread the weakness to the broader index.

Sectors and themes

  • SMH fell to $569.46 and Nvidia to $217.49. For SMH, support is at $560, the first recovery threshold at $575 and strong confirmation at $585; for Nvidia, support is at $213 and resistance is in the $224-$225 area. If SMH cannot hold $560, the pressure on chips will deepen.
  • IGV at $105.02 cleared confirmation at $103.70; support is at $101 and the prior source target at $108. SPCX at $138.68 closed above resistance at $134.88; $134.88 and $130 are now the first supports. The fact that the two funds rose together shows that Monday's selloff did not spread across every technology theme.

Precious metals

  • Spot gold is at $4,406.20 this morning, while GLD closed Monday at $402.56. GLD has support at $400 and $395, with resistance at $405. Clearing $405 would strengthen safe-haven demand; below $400 would reduce near-term momentum.
  • SLV rose to $59.43. Support is at $58, with first resistance at $60 and the next confirmation area at $62. A close above $60 would broaden the metals move; below $58 would weaken Monday's advance.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is about $64,012. It lost $64,400; main support is at $62,000 and resistance at $65,800. There is no upside confirmation until $64,400 is reclaimed; below $62,000 would bring deeper risk reduction into view.
  • Ethereum is about $1,875 and XRP $1.009. Ethereum has support at $1,850 and a recovery area at $1,890-$1,925; XRP has support at $1.00 and resistance at $1.04-$1.05. Both clearing their recovery thresholds would rebuild participation beyond Bitcoin.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 ended Monday 0.23% higher at 13,811.60. Support is at 13,779 and 13,700; resistance is at 13,911 and in the 13,956-14,000 area. The move remains unconfirmed until 14,000 is cleared; below 13,700 would break local momentum.
  • Dollar/TL is about 47.7379. Support is at 47.70 and 47.59, while 48.00 is resistance and the main risk threshold. Pressure remains limited below 48.00; a simultaneous break above 48.00 and $90 Brent would increase imported-cost risk.

Red flags

  • If Brent and the 10-year Treasury yield remain above $90 and 4.70%, respectively, energy costs and the discount rate will rise at the same time. Pressure will become more pronounced if Brent approaches $95.
  • If QQQ falls below $717 and SMH below $560 while IGV loses $101, the divergence will end and the selloff will spread across technology.
  • If Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP fall below $62,000, $1,850 and $1.00 together, the crypto compression will resolve to the downside.
  • If the BIST 100 loses 13,700 while dollar/TL and Brent clear 48.00 and $90, local equity, currency and energy pressure will increase at the same time.

Calendar

  • August 12, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July consumer inflation and real earnings will be released. The data will test whether the Fed's room on rates is genuinely expanding while oil rises.
  • August 13, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July producer inflation will be released. The pass-through of energy and transportation costs to company margins will be watched.

My analysis

Monday's main message was not a broad risk-off move, but selective pricing under higher oil and Treasury yields. The S&P 500 was nearly flat while semiconductors fell and software, space and metals rose, making that split clear.

$100 is not a forecast for today, but a regime boundary. While Brent remains between $80 and $95, the market may view the energy shock as manageable; holding above $95, and especially clearing $100, would force a repricing of inflation and the Fed path.

Wednesday's CPI report is the first test of this divergence. If inflation slows, IGV and QQQ may find support while SMH could lag under its own sector pressure. A strong report, however, would push the Treasury yield toward 4.85% and Brent toward the $90-$95 area, challenging the headline indexes as well.

In Turkey, BIST support at 13,700, the 48.00 dollar/TL threshold and Brent at $90 are parts of the same picture. Watching only one of the three could cause us to miss the link between imported energy costs and risk appetite.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.