Oil became more expensive again at the end of this week, while U.S. stock performance varied by sector. Software and small-company funds rose as the semiconductor fund declined. Next week's Fed decision and corporate earnings will test where a recovery can gain strength.

In reviewing the week that began on October 19, I distinguish Friday's rebound from the weekly result. A fund rising in the last session does not mean it has recovered earlier losses. More expensive energy is also a shared business cost that could make it harder to turn strong sales into profit.

Key takeaways

  • Treating technology as a single investment would have been misleading this week. The gap between software and semiconductor companies highlights why the companies a fund tracks matter alongside the sector label.
  • Waiting only for the rate decision will not be enough next week. Corporate outlooks and the ability to generate cash to cover spending could send stocks in different directions under the same interest-rate conditions.
  • Friday's lows and highs below are nearby monitoring boundaries. Moving beyond them provides new information; established support or a lasting reversal requires seeing what prices do next as well.

What happened this week?

  • Between the Friday closes on October 16 and October 23, Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ ($QQQ) fell 0.8% and semiconductor fund SMH ($SMH) lost 2.3%. Software-company fund IGV rose about 6%, while IWM, which tracks small companies, gained 2%. These weekly price changes show a more pronounced divergence than Friday's moves alone.
  • Gold fund GLD ($GLD) lost 4% for the week and silver fund SLV ($SLV) fell 5.4%. TLT, which tracks U.S. Treasuries with maturities above 20 years, rose 1.6%. These instruments, often monitored for protection, produced different results amid continuing geopolitical tension, reflecting their different sensitivities to interest rates and demand.
  • Reuters reported on October 23 that Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia had increased concerns about energy supplies. Brent rose 3.14% on Friday to $116.72 a barrel. The U.S. Treasury's figures for the same day put the 10-year Treasury yield at 5%; energy and borrowing costs both matter for companies.
  • According to AP's October 25 report, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh reopened to international flights. Saudi military spokesman Turki al-Malki said a Houthi ballistic missile and a drone headed toward Riyadh were intercepted on Sunday. Restored transport is positive; continuing attack risks could sustain uncertainty over energy supplies.

What changed since the start of the week?

  • On Monday I was looking at how falling oil prices could ease business expenses. Renewed supply concerns at the end of the week weakened that prospect. In stocks, the condition that initial buying should hold was not met across all sectors; software's weekly gain does not erase semiconductor losses.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • December Brent was at $116.72. Friday's $112.74 low is potential nearby support, with its $117.45 high the first potential resistance. Clearing the upper boundary could intensify pressure from energy costs; returning to the lower one would unwind most of the latest jump.

U.S. indexes and chips

  • SPY ($SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, finished Friday at $759.97. If it fails to find support at $758.68, the latest session's low would also be lost; $763.47 is the first recovery threshold. Until that upper boundary is reclaimed, it is too early to say the latest selloff's impact has faded.
  • QQQ's $704.40 close remained inside Friday's $701.16-$709.30 range. Finding support at the lower end and clearing the upper confirmation threshold would signal a stronger recovery than a single day of calmer trading.
  • SMH was at $527.20. If it holds above Friday's $521.33 low as potential support, $533.34 will be the first resistance test. Financial analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) also leaves open the possibility of another decline toward $500; this figure is a possible pullback scenario.
  • IGV, one of the week's stronger areas, closed at $110.59, near Friday's $110.76 high as potential resistance. That boundary needs to be cleared for the advance to continue; falling below potential support at $107.64 would erase the latest session's buying. These are not new price targets.

Metals and crypto

  • GLD's last close was $366.61. Below it, $364.33 is potential support; $369.25 is the first recovery threshold I will watch. If Treasury yields stay high, the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, could also remain high.
  • SLV finished at $48.72 in the upper part of Friday's range. It will need to clear potential resistance at $48.98 to recover; failing to find support at $47.87 would mean renewed weakness. Its industrial use also makes silver sensitive to growth expectations.
  • Bitcoin ($BTC) was about $80,200 around midday Sunday. It was below Şatıroğlu's nearby $80,500 support and close to the $80,000 boundary; his first recovery resistance is $83,000. Until that upper threshold is cleared, I do not equate sideways trading with a new advance.
  • Ether was about $2,324, near Şatıroğlu's support area extending down to $2,300. The important upper threshold is $2,530. Losing the lower area would increase downside risk; reclaiming the upper boundary would be a stronger step toward recovery.

Red flags

  • Şatıroğlu expects a recovery around the middle of next week, while stressing that its day and duration are uncertain. Replacing price conditions with a calendar forecast could obscure the risk of renewed selling.
  • Strong earnings and a positive stock-price reaction are different things. Investment spending, cash needs or the outlook can outweigh the previous quarter's profit.

Calendar

  • October 27-28: Fed policy meeting (FOMC). Watch the decision and messages about subsequent meetings.
  • October 28, after the U.S. close: Microsoft earnings. AI revenue and investment needs should be assessed together.
  • October 29: First estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP and September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation; Amazon results after the U.S. close.
  • October 30: U.S. third-quarter Employment Cost Index, covering changes in wage and benefit costs.

My analysis

Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) highlights the role forced selling and position closures can play in sharp short-term moves. I find this framework useful in avoiding the assumption that every rally means companies' businesses have improved. To have greater confidence in a lasting recovery, I will look for prices to clear the latest selling range and for gains to extend beyond a few large stocks.

I will first examine how the Fed's messages affect borrowing costs, then look at earnings reports to assess how much cash companies can generate. If both improve while energy costs ease, this week's selective buying is more likely to broaden. If oil remains expensive and corporate financing needs grow, I will remain cautious despite a few days of rising prices.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.