Brent crude rose 7% to close at $100.69, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.71%. On the same day, the Nasdaq fell 2.2%, Alphabet lost 7.1% and Tesla dropped 14.5%. The market priced in two pressures at once: more expensive energy and the growing cash burden of artificial-intelligence investment.

But the sell-off did not spread evenly. Micron gained 3.2%, while Intel rose about 4.4% in after-hours trading following its earnings report. This does not mean the AI story is over. It means investors are distinguishing between the companies paying for AI investment and those earning revenue from it.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 fell 1.2% to close at 7,408.30, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.2% to 25,137.69. The Dow lost 1% and the Russell 2000 declined 0.7%. Technology was at the centre of the selling, but the pressure did not hit every part of the market with the same force.
  • Brent crude rose 7% to close at $100.69 and reached $102 during the session. It remained near $100.85 in early Asian trading on Friday. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.71%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.17%.
  • Alphabet ($GOOGL) fell 7.1% to $317.69, while Tesla ($TSLA) dropped 14.5% to $319.69. Alphabet was weighed down by high AI investment and negative free cash flow. Tesla faced concerns about profit and capital spending.
  • QQQ ($QQQ) fell 1.9% to $691.96, while SMH, the semiconductor ETF ($SMH), declined 1.2% to $580.17. In contrast, Micron ($MU) gained 3.2% to close at $990.21, and Intel ($INTC) rose to about $104.61 in after-hours trading following its results.
  • GLD, the gold ETF ($GLD), fell 2% to $371.52, while SLV, the silver ETF ($SLV), lost 3.5% to close at $52.06. The decline in precious metals despite the oil shock showed that safe-haven demand was not strong enough to lift prices in this session.
  • The BIST 100 fell 0.43% to close at 14,077.67, while USD/TRY traded near 47.24 during the day. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye kept its policy rate unchanged at 37%. The European Central Bank also left its three key rates unchanged.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press, the risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea both contributed to Brent's advance. Oil moving above $100 shifted geopolitical risk beyond energy stocks and into the centre of the inflation, interest-rate and technology-valuation debate.
  • Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) showed that the Nasdaq sell-off was concentrated in mega-cap technology stocks, while industrial, healthcare and energy companies were more resilient. The Russell 2000's 0.7% decline was also smaller than the Nasdaq's 2.2% loss. I therefore do not read Thursday's move as a market-wide collapse.
  • Bloomberg Television's (@BloombergTV) The Close separated the day's two main pressures clearly: hundreds of billions of dollars in AI investment and $100 oil. As oil rises, inflation risk, bond yields and corporate energy costs increase together. That combination raises the discount rate applied to future technology profits.
  • Alphabet's results had shown 82% growth in Google Cloud revenue, while the company raised its full-year capital-spending forecast to $195-$205 billion and free cash flow turned negative by $5.9 billion. The stock's 7.1% fall the following day does not mean the market rejected cloud growth. Investors are measuring more strictly how much cash that growth produces.
  • Tesla's 14.5% fall was a more severe version of the same capital-discipline debate. Revenue grew, but adjusted earnings per share missed expectations and research-and-development spending rose about 49%. Investment in robotaxis, AI infrastructure and humanoid robots continues, while the market questions how quickly it will translate into profit.
  • Micron's 3.2% gain and Intel's roughly 4.4% after-hours rise marked an important split. High AI investment is a near-term cash outflow for Alphabet. For suppliers of memory, processors, networking and data-centre infrastructure, the same investment represents new orders and revenue.
  • CNBC (@CNBC) highlighted Micron's positive divergence within semiconductors while large technology stocks such as Alphabet and Amazon fell sharply. This looks less like the end of the AI theme and more like the market selecting new winners within the same theme.
  • The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye kept its policy rate at 37%, its overnight lending rate at 40% and its borrowing rate at 35.5%. Its statement said the underlying trend of inflation declined in June, a temporary rise was expected in July and energy prices had increased again. With oil above $100, the room for rapid monetary easing is narrowing.
  • The European Central Bank also kept its deposit rate at 2.25%. It said the energy shock had created substantial uncertainty and that its full effect on inflation had not yet been seen. Both central banks holding rates and emphasising energy risk on the same day showed that oil has again become a central macro variable.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) said on Kanal Finans that the rapid rise in oil was one of the main reasons for Thursday's sharp sell-off, and he believes geopolitical risk remains elevated over the weekend. This is a scenario, not a confirmed development. The price test is clear: pressure persists if Brent stays above $100, while a move below it would offer the first relief for technology.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $100.69. The first support and psychological threshold is $100, with stronger support at $97-$98. The first resistance is $102, followed by a higher-risk area at $105. Holding above $102 would increase energy-driven inflation pressure, while a return below $100 would be the first macro relief signal for technology.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.71% and the 30-year yield is at 5.17%. For the 10-year, 4.67% is the first support, 4.75% the first resistance and risk threshold, and 5% the larger pressure zone. For the 30-year, support is at 5.10%-5.15% and resistance at 5.20%. The most difficult combination for technology would be Brent holding above $100 while the 10-year yield moves above 4.75%.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,408.30. The first support is 7,400, followed by 7,350. The first resistance is 7,450, with 7,500 the stronger recovery level. The index closed just above critical support. It is too early to say the sell-off is over before 7,450 is reclaimed.
  • QQQ is at $691.96. The first support is $688-$690, followed by $680. The first resistance and recovery area is $700-$705, with $712 the stronger rebound level. Short-term damage in the Nasdaq remains while QQQ stays below $700-$705.
  • IWM, the small-cap ETF ($IWM), is at $292.09. Support is at $290-$292, the first resistance at $294 and the stronger continuation threshold at $300. Holding up better than the Nasdaq is constructive, but a broad market appetite for buying is not confirmed before $300 is cleared.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $580.17. The first support is $574-$580, with the main support at $560. The first resistance is $590, followed by a stronger recovery level at $600. The ETF held above support, but it is too early to say the semiconductor sell-off is over before $590 is reclaimed.
  • Micron is at $990.21. The first support is $980-$990, followed by $950. The first resistance is $1,000, with Thursday's high at $1,012 as the next threshold. Holding above $1,000 would show that AI-infrastructure demand is also strengthening in the share price.
  • Alphabet is at $317.69. The first support is $315, followed by $310. The first resistance and recovery area is $325-$330, with stronger resistance at $342. Capital-spending concerns would grow below $315, while a move above $330 would show that the market is refocusing on cloud growth.
  • Tesla is at $319.69. The first support is $315-$320, with the main support at $300. The first resistance is $325-$330, followed by a stronger recovery level at $342. The stock held above support, but the post-earnings selling pressure is not resolved before $330 is cleared.
  • Intel closed the regular session at $100.23 and rose to about $104.61 in after-hours trading following its results. Support is at $100-$102, the first resistance at $105 and the stronger continuation level at $108. Holding above $105 would broaden the positive semiconductor split, while a move back below $100 would weaken the initial reaction.

Crypto and precious metals

  • GLD is at $371.52. Support is at $370-$372, the first resistance at $375 and the stronger recovery area at $382. Its decline while oil rose shows that safe-haven demand is not moving in one direction. The short-term picture does not strengthen before $375 is reclaimed.
  • SLV is at $52.06. The first support is $52, with the main support at $50. The first resistance is $53-$54, followed by a stronger continuation threshold at $55. Holding $52 matters, but it is too early to expect renewed acceleration in silver before $54 is cleared.

Türkiye

  • The BIST 100 is at 14,077.67. The first support is 14,000, followed by 13,900. The first resistance is 14,200, with 14,300-14,450 the stronger area. The index stayed above 14,000 after the policy-rate decision, but there is no new upside confirmation before 14,200 is reclaimed.
  • USD/TRY is near 47.24. Support is at 47.00 and resistance at 47.35-47.50. A move above 47.50 would show rising oil and inflation pressure, while a retreat toward 47.00 would indicate that the currency remained calm after the decision.

Red flags

  • If Brent settles above $102 while the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.75%, energy-driven inflation and higher financing costs would pressure technology stocks at the same time.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,400 while QQQ falls below $688, the sell-off could spread more clearly from mega-cap technology stocks to the broader market.
  • If Alphabet and Tesla remain below $315 while QQQ loses $688, the post-earnings decline would move beyond a short-lived reaction and large technology stocks would begin searching for new support.
  • If SMH falls below $574 and Micron below $950, the positive split among semiconductor companies benefiting from AI investment would weaken. In that case, the idea that those funding the spending fall while suppliers benefit would lose price support.
  • New attacks or shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea would increase oil's weekend risk premium. Before the headlines, Brent's behaviour in the $102-$105 area will show whether Tunç's scenario is taking hold.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 14,000 while USD/TRY rises above 47.50, the market would be pricing oil and currency pressure rather than the central bank's rate decision.

Calendar

  • Friday, July 24 at 14:45 BST: the US flash manufacturing and services PMI data are due. With oil and yields rising, the focus will be on what companies say about costs, employment and pricing.
  • Friday, July 24 at 15:00 BST: US new-home sales for June are due. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.71% putting renewed pressure on housing finance, demand and inventory will matter.
  • July 24-26 weekend: watch developments around the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and energy shipments. The most important variable for Monday's open is whether Brent remains above $100.
  • July 28-29: the Federal Reserve meets on interest rates. The focus will be less on the decision itself and more on whether $100 oil changes the inflation outlook and the Fed's communication. The decision is due at 19:00 BST on July 29, followed by the press conference at 19:30.

My analysis

Thursday's sell-off was not driven by a single problem. Alphabet and Tesla were already under pressure over how quickly investment spending would translate into cash generation. Brent moving above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.71% added a second cost to that question.

Oil affects technology through more than data-centre electricity bills. More expensive energy raises inflation, makes it harder for central banks to cut rates and pushes bond yields higher. When bond yields rise, the present value of expected future profits falls. Technology stocks built on longer-term growth promises are therefore hit harder.

It would still be a mistake to place the entire AI chain in the same basket. Data-centre investment is a cash outflow for Alphabet today, while the same spending is a revenue opportunity for suppliers such as Micron and Intel. Micron's 3.2% rise and Intel's after-hours reaction show that investors are making this distinction.

The broader market is not yet showing a complete breakdown either. The Russell 2000 fell less than the Nasdaq, while industrial, healthcare and energy stocks were more resilient. For that split to continue, oil must avoid another upward leg and selling in large technology stocks must not break the S&P 500's 7,400 support.

The decisions by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye and the European Central Bank to hold rates while emphasising energy risk matter for the same reason. Oil is no longer only a geopolitical headline. It is a common variable affecting currency and inflation in Türkiye, the room for rate cuts in Europe and technology valuations in the United States.

My decision tree for today:

  • Can Brent produce lasting relief below $100, or does it move toward $102-$105?
  • Can the US 10-year Treasury yield return to 4.67%, or does it move above 4.75%?
  • Can the S&P 500 hold above 7,400 and reclaim 7,450, while QQQ recovers the $700-$705 area?
  • Can SMH move toward $590, Micron above $1,000 and Intel above $105?
  • Can Alphabet hold $315 and Tesla hold the $315-$320 area before moving toward their respective $325-$330 resistance zones?
  • Can the BIST 100 stay above 14,000 while USD/TRY remains below 47.50?

If Brent returns below $100, the 10-year yield falls to 4.67% and QQQ reclaims $700-$705, Thursday's sell-off could remain a sharp repricing within strong AI demand. If Brent advances toward $102-$105, the yield moves above 4.75% and the S&P 500 loses 7,400, the heavier energy and financing bill could spread beyond technology.

Sources

This material is for research and monitoring purposes only and is not investment advice.