Brent crude climbed to $90.87 on Monday morning, breaking above last week's critical threshold. US equity index futures were still slightly positive, but chip stocks remain damaged, and this week's Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings will test whether artificial-intelligence spending is truly translating into profit.

The main question for the new week is this: Will oil above $90 trigger another wave of selling in technology stocks, or can the S&P 500 hold support at 7,450 and produce a limited rebound?

Key takeaways

  • Brent rose about 3.1% to $90.87, its highest level since June 11. Only four ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight on Saturday. The first resistance is $93, while $95-$96 is the more dangerous zone for inflation and market risk.
  • The S&P 500 last closed at 7,457.69, QQQ ($QQQ) at $695.31 and SMH, the semiconductor-company ETF ($SMH), at $556.08. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were slightly positive before Monday's open, but it is too early to say the technology sell-off is over until QQQ returns above $700-$705 and SMH above $560.
  • SpaceX ($SPCX) closed Friday at $123.94. The stock is about 8% below its $135 initial public offering price and roughly 45% below its June peak of $225.56. A lower price does not automatically mean it is “cheap”; the downtrend cannot be considered broken until the $130-$135 area is reclaimed.
  • Interest in artificial-intelligence infrastructure is no longer confined to Nvidia. Micron ($MU) stands at $849.46, while SK hynix ($SKHY), newly listed on Nasdaq, is at $154.02. Memory and power demand are strong parts of the AI investment cycle, but sharp volatility in both stocks shows that the right theme and the right entry price are not the same thing.
  • Bitcoin was around $64,240 on Monday morning and remained above its $63,000 support. Ethereum was near $1,864 and XRP around $1.09. Crypto is not yet following Friday's technology sell-off, but there is no strong confirmation of broader risk appetite until Bitcoin moves above $67,700.
  • The median price of an existing US home reached a record $440,600 in June. Sales fell 2.4% from the previous month, while the average 30-year mortgage rate stood at 6.49%. The price record does not mean the housing market is strong; it shows that affordability remains difficult because rates are high and supply is limited.

What happened?

  • Reuters data showed Brent rising to $90.87 and WTI to $84.84. US and Iranian attacks expanded over the weekend; the Associated Press reported that shipping through Hormuz had largely halted and that a vessel caught fire after being struck on Monday. The market is no longer pricing only the war headline. It is pricing how many ships can actually pass and how much energy can be exported from the Gulf.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) had said in yesterday's video that heavily sold risk assets could rebound strongly if Hormuz reopened. That conditional view remains valid, but Brent moving above $90 and fewer ships passing through the strait support a scenario of mounting pressure today, not reopening.
  • Bloomberg Television's morning assessment placed oil, bond yields and elevated technology valuations within the same risk framework. The long-term impact of AI investment is not in dispute. The uncertainty is how much revenue and profit each company can generate from very high spending. Strong earnings alone may therefore no longer be enough; investors will also question the return on capital expenditure.
  • The central thesis in the Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) segment was that artificial intelligence cannot operate without memory and power. Nvidia ($NVDA) remains a core player, while Micron and SK hynix were highlighted in memory and Vertiv and American Electric Power in energy and data-center infrastructure. I do not read this as “Nvidia is finished.” I read it as an expansion in the list of companies earning money from AI spending.
  • SK hynix's Nasdaq ADRs were priced at $149 and opened at $170 on July 10; they closed Friday at $154.02. The wide range between $145.60 and $194.69 during the first six trading days shows that even when the story is strong, a newly listed security may need time to find direction.
  • Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) described SpaceX not as an easy short-term purchase but as a high-risk, long-term thesis that should be watched through very small and gradual positions. The central idea is that SpaceX is not merely a rocket company carrying other customers' payloads. Through Starlink, it is also carrying its own recurring revenue into orbit and building a “space transportation network.” Revenue scenarios such as orbital data centers remain assumptions about the future, not proven economies of scale.
  • According to SpaceX's official initial public offering announcement, the offer price was $135 and the first trade was at $150. The stock now trading below both levels validates Bora's warning about a post-offering decline and small position sizes, but the main uncertainty remains when the company's current revenue can support its elevated valuation.
  • CNBC (@CNBC) highlighted today the housing data released by the National Association of Realtors on July 9. Existing-home sales fell 2.4% in June from the previous month, while the median price rose 1.8% year over year to $440,600. First-time buyers' share increased to 33%, while cash sales fell to 25%. Buyers have not escaped high rates; more of them are returning to the market by accepting the cost.
  • The shared “who controls the bottleneck?” framework across recent issues of The Economist connects two different markets today. Hormuz is the bottleneck for energy flows, while high-bandwidth memory and electricity capacity are bottlenecks for artificial intelligence. Volatility in oil and chips is therefore not disconnected; both reflect the price of constrained capacity.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent stands at $90.87. The $88-$88.50 area is now the first support, $93 the first resistance and $95-$96 the stronger risk zone. If Brent settles above $93, inflation and interest-rate pressure will intensify; a return below $88 would show that today's jump is not lasting.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield last officially closed at 4.55%. The first support and relief threshold is 4.50%, while 4.57%-4.60% is the first resistance zone. The most difficult short-term scenario for growth and technology shares would be oil rising as the yield also moves above 4.60%.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 stands at 7,457.69. The first support is 7,450, followed by the stronger lower support at 7,350-7,327, while 7,550 is the first resistance. A limited pre-market rise may preserve support at 7,450, but a strong rebound cannot be said to have begun until the index returns above 7,550.
  • QQQ stands at $695.31. The first support is $687-$690, the first resistance is $700-$705 and $712 is the stronger recovery level. If $700-$705 cannot be reclaimed, Monday's rebound may remain only a brief pause.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH stands at $556.08. The first support is $537-$540, the first resistance is $560 and $590 is the stronger recovery zone. The semiconductor sector closed Friday below $560; the damage remains active until that level is reclaimed, while a move below $537 would show that selling has entered a new phase.
  • Nvidia stands at $202.80, with first support at $198-$200 and first resistance at $207-$210. Micron stands at $849.46, with support at $804-$820 and resistance at $875-$905. SK hynix stands at $154.02, with support at $145-$150, first resistance at $168-$170 and upper resistance at $194-$195. The memory thesis remains strong, but prices do not yet show a calm, broad-based recovery.
  • SpaceX stands at $123.94. The first support is $120-$122, the first recovery zone is $130-$135 and the stronger resistance is $145-$150. No new uptrend can be considered established until the $135 offering price is reclaimed; a break below $120 would show price discovery continuing lower.
  • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) stands at $67.60, with support at $64-$65 and first resistance at $70-$71. AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) stands at $57.78, with support at $54-$55 and resistance at $61-$62. Both stocks holding up better on Friday while SpaceX declined is positive, but it is too early to conclude that they are decisively diverging given the high volatility of the space theme and the resistance levels still overhead.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is around $64,240. Support is at $63,000, first resistance at $67,700 and the stronger target zone at $72,000. The leading-indicator view remains active above $63,000, but there is no strong risk-taking signal spreading into equities until $67,700 is broken.
  • Ethereum is around $1,864, with support at $1,840, first resistance at $1,920 and stronger confirmation at $2,000. XRP is near $1.09, with support at $1.07 and resistance at $1.13. Both assets remain in narrow ranges and have not yet produced a new direction.
  • Gold is around $4,005, with support at $3,940-$4,000 and first resistance at $4,100. Silver is around $56.61, with support at $55-$56, first resistance at $58 and a stronger recovery level at $60. Despite elevated geopolitical risk, expectations of higher interest rates are limiting precious metals.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 was roughly flat at around 13,993 on Monday morning. The intraday range was 13,910-14,074, with first support at 13,882, the first threshold at 14,000 and resistance at 14,300-14,450. Energy shares rising while the index remains flat shows that the oil shock has different effects across companies.
  • USD/TRY is around 47.18. Support is at 47.00 and resistance at 47.35-47.50. Even if the exchange rate remains calm, Brent holding above $90 increases the pressure on fuel prices, inflation and the current account in Turkey; gains in refinery and energy shares do not remove that macroeconomic cost.

Red flags

  • If the US 10-year Treasury yield moves above 4.60% as Brent heads toward $93, the relief in June inflation will quickly become stale information. Oil above $95-$96 would create a much more difficult scenario for technology and consumer shares.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,450, QQQ loses $687-$690 and SMH loses $537, a second phase of Friday's technology sell-off may begin. Positive pre-market futures are not evidence of lasting improvement until these levels hold.
  • If SpaceX falls below $120 while SK hynix loses $145 and Micron loses $804, price discovery in the new listing and the AI-memory theme is continuing lower. A strong long-term story does not remove short-term loss risk.
  • A further decline in ship transits through Hormuz, or attacks spreading to oil storage, refineries and export terminals, could create a price gap in Brent. Sunday's four ship transits do not show that energy flows have normalized.
  • If Bitcoin falls below $63,000 while gold also loses $3,940, geopolitical risk would be generating cash demand and rate pressure rather than safe-haven demand. If the BIST 100 falls below 13,882 as USD/TRY rises above 47.50, the effect of the oil shock on Turkey would become more visible.

Calendar

  • Monday, July 20: At the US open, watch Brent at $93, the S&P 500 at 7,450, QQQ at $700-$705 and SMH at $560. The first test is whether the limited pre-market gain can hold through the session.
  • Wednesday, July 22: Alphabet and Tesla report earnings. The focus will be whether Alphabet's AI spending is translating into cloud and advertising revenue, and whether Tesla's high-technology investment is translating into margins and cash flow.
  • Thursday, July 23: Intel reports earnings and the European Central Bank announces its interest-rate decision. Chip demand, capital expenditure and oil-driven inflation pressure will be tested on the same day.
  • Friday, July 24: Preliminary July manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices and June new-home sales are released. Markets will look for the first signs of how higher oil prices are affecting growth expectations.
  • July 28-29: The Federal Reserve meets. June inflation had reduced pressure for a rate increase; if Brent remains above $90, the Fed's assessment of renewed energy-driven inflation risk will become more important.

My analysis

Today's picture is not as simple as “oil rose, so stocks will fall.” US equity index futures are slightly positive despite Brent moving above $90. This does not mean the market is ignoring the risk. It means investors are waiting to see how long the energy shock lasts and whether big-technology earnings can offset it.

The artificial-intelligence story is not over, but the investor's question is changing. In the past, the question was “who will sell more chips?” Now it is “who will generate how much cash from spending on memory, electricity, data centers and models?” Micron and SK hynix are interesting for that reason, but volatility in both stocks is also a reminder that a good company and a good entry price are not the same thing.

The same distinction applies to SpaceX. Reusable rockets, Starlink's recurring revenue and the growth of a space transportation network could create a very strong long-term story. Yet the stock falling below its offering price is not an automatic buy signal; current revenue, valuation and the timing of new businesses reaching scale remain uncertain. It is too early to say price has confirmed the story until $135 and then $150 are reclaimed.

My decision tree for today is:

  • Can Brent remain below $93 and return to $88-$88.50, or is it increasing the risk of $95-$96?
  • Can the S&P 500 hold 7,450 while QQQ reclaims $700-$705 and SMH reclaims $560?
  • Can Alphabet, Tesla and Intel show that elevated AI spending is producing revenue, margin and cash-flow returns?
  • Can SpaceX hold above $120-$122 and reclaim $135, while SK hynix holds above $145-$150 and reclaims $170?
  • Can Bitcoin remain above $63,000 while the BIST 100 preserves support at 13,882 and USD/TRY stays below 47.50?

If oil remains below $93, the S&P 500 holds 7,450 and SMH returns above $560, the technology move may remain a sharp but manageable correction. If Brent approaches $95 while the S&P 500 loses 7,450, SMH loses $537 and Bitcoin loses $63,000, the market will have entered another wave of risk reduction.

Sources

  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Bora Özkent: youtube.com
  • Yahoo Finance: youtube.com
  • Bloomberg Television: youtube.com
  • CNBC: youtube.com
  • Reuters, the Associated Press, the National Association of Realtors, the US Treasury, SpaceX, Nasdaq, Tesla Investor Relations and Alpaca market data.
  • The Economist: the June 27, July 4, July 11 and July 18, 2026 issues, plus the combined Turkish summary.

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.