Brent rose to $91.08 before the U.S. open as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.72%; U.S. stocks fell at the August 17 close.

Bora Özkent's (@boraozkent) constructive U.S. equity framework rests on softer inflation and the possibility of a Fed cut. But Monday's pricing will test that view by putting oil's ability to stay above $90 and the 10-year yield's ability to stay above 4.70% in focus.

Key takeaways

  • When oil and yields rise together, the first pressure reached technology; the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ must hold $725 to preserve short-term balance.
  • Gold ETF GLD rose to $405.46 and silver ETF SLV to $59.575 at the August 17 close; defensive demand strengthened, but this move alone does not confirm broad risk aversion.
  • IWM, the ETF that tracks small U.S. companies, fell to $304.05 while SMH, the semiconductor ETF, rose to $593.97; the market's internal split continues.
  • The opening arguments in the Meta trial and the August 19 FOMC minutes are two near-term catalysts for technology valuations and rate expectations.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press's August 17 close, the S&P 500 fell 40.70 points to 7,745.06, while the Dow Jones ended at 53,459.78 and the Nasdaq at 26,644.91; Brent rose to $90.87 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.72%.
  • In its August 18 Asia update, the Associated Press said equities fell while Brent reached $91.08; uncertainty around the Iran war and energy flows through Hormuz is putting oil back at the centre through inflation and Treasury-yield channels.
  • In Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu's (@tuncsatiroglu) August 17 program, spot gold around $4,425 and silver around $66 are being watched as confirmation of an advance; these are the commentator's conditional levels, not one-to-one prices for GLD and SLV.
  • In Meta's federal trial in Oakland, opening arguments for the first four states will begin on August 18; the allegations are disputed and the company contests them.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent at $91.08 is above the first resistance line at $90; $87 is the support area and $95 the main risk threshold. If this zone holds, oil-driven inflation and rate pressure may weigh heavily on technology stocks.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.72%; support is 4.65%, the directional resistance line 4.70% and main risk threshold 4.85%. A return below 4.70% would ease valuation pressure.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 at 7,745.06 is just below the 7,750 support area; 7,800 is first recovery and 7,850 the next resistance. Reclaiming 7,750 is the first condition for preserving the index's high-level structure.
  • QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, at $729.945 is above support at $725; first resistance is $734.56 and the next threshold $740. Technology leadership cannot be considered fully broken while $725 holds.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH, the semiconductor ETF, at $593.97 is above support at $585; $600 is main resistance. A break above $600 would put the AI-investment theme in focus, while losing $585 would highlight short-term momentum loss.
  • IWM, the U.S. small-company ETF, is at $304.05; the support zone is $302-$303, the pivot $305 and resistance $310. Participation recovery weakens below $303.
  • IGV, the software-company ETF, at $101.96 is below support at $103.70; first resistance is $106.30 and the lower-risk area $101. With rate pressure continuing, software is the most sensitive technology group.
  • Meta is at $568.99; $580 is the support/lower-risk line and $590 resistance. There is no recovery confirmation until $590 is reclaimed; trial news flow raises company-specific risk for QQQ.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is around $64,164; support is $62,000, conditional confirmation $67,000 and the next risk area $58,000. Until $67,000 is cleared, the crypto move is not confirmation of broad risk appetite.
  • Ethereum is around $1,895; support is $1,850 and resistance $1,950. XRP is around $0.995; support is $0.92 and confirmation $1.07. Both remain in a middle range.
  • Gold ETF GLD closed August 17 at $405.46; support is $400. For spot gold, $4,425 and for silver $66 remain Kanal Finans's conditional confirmation levels; the ETF and spot scales should not be mixed.
  • Silver ETF SLV at $59.575 is above support at $58; unless spot silver clears the $66 confirmation threshold, the move is not expected to become broad-based commodity confirmation.

Red flags

  • If Brent stays above $90 while the 10-year yield exceeds 4.70%, valuation pressure on technology stocks will grow.
  • If QQQ falls below $725, IWM below $302 or IGV below $101, market participation weakens.
  • If spot gold fails to confirm above $4,425 and silver cannot clear $66 while Bitcoin falls below $62,000, defensive demand broadens but risk appetite does not recover.
  • If Meta stays below $580 and the August 19 FOMC minutes point to a tighter rate tone, the technology correction could deepen.

Calendar

  • Tuesday, August 18, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. import and export prices will be released.
  • Tuesday, August 18, 4:15 p.m. TRT: U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization will be released.
  • Tuesday, August 18: opening arguments for the first four states will begin in the Oakland Meta trial; the allegations are disputed.
  • Wednesday, August 19, 9:00 p.m. TRT: minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting will be released.

My analysis

My base case is a selective correction driven by oil and Treasury yields weighing on technology rather than a full flight from risk. Although U.S. indexes remain in a high range, $725 for QQQ, $101 for IGV and 4.70% for the 10-year yield are different tests of the same story. A move back below $90 in Brent and a reclaim of their own resistance levels by technology ETFs would ease the pressure; otherwise, continued strength in gold and silver would confirm a defensive divergence.

Sources

  • Associated Press, August 17 U.S. market close: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 18 Asia markets and oil: apnews.com
  • Federal Reserve, August 2026 calendar: federalreserve.gov
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026 release schedule: bls.gov
  • U.S. market and crypto observations: data.alpaca.markets
  • Bloomberg Television, Stocks & Bonds Fall as Oil Rises on Geopolitical Tensions: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance Live, Daily Market Coverage - August 17, 2026: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Mad Money 08/17/26: youtu.be
  • Kanal Finans, August 17, 2026 program: youtu.be
  • Bora Özkent, August 17, 2026 program: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.