U.S. stocks finished Friday higher as lower oil prices supported buying. But a report after the close that President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire offer leaves the relief built on hopes for a deal looking fragile.

Going into the weekend, the distinction matters: Friday’s prices reflect positive diplomatic expectations, while the market response to the later report has not yet been seen. At Monday’s open, I will watch not only the direction of the indexes but whether energy costs start rising again.

Key takeaways

  • It is too early to read the stock rebound as proof that the war or inflation pressure has ended. Lower oil can help companies’ costs; for that relief to last, talks need to turn into a tangible increase in shipments.
  • Companies’ investment orders strengthened while consumers’ price concerns increased. This mixed picture is a reminder that resilient growth and a Fed that struggles to cut rates can coexist.
  • AI agents could create new demand for infrastructure. But it would be unwise to apply the same expectations to every technology stock before separating which companies may gain revenue from increased use and which may face only added costs.

What changed since yesterday?

  • In yesterday’s note, I was watching rising oil and rate pressure even as stocks recovered their losses. On Friday, oil fell, chips rose again and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down from 5.18% to 5.17%. Support for stocks improved; the decline in borrowing costs was still very limited.

What happened?

  • The S&P 500 rose about 0.5% on Friday and the Dow gained 0.9%. According to Reuters’ September 25 report, Brent crude fell 2.1% to settle at $104.32. Talks between the U.S. and Iran about a phased exit from the war, along with discussion of a possible U.S. diesel export ban, affected prices. No export ban was announced as an implemented decision.
  • The overnight report was different. Anadolu Agency reported on September 26, citing The Wall Street Journal, that Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire offer, which also included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This is a report attributed to officials, not a signed agreement or the start of a new attack. Friday’s oil close cannot be read as a reaction to this later development.
  • U.S. durable-goods orders were unchanged in August, while non-defense capital-goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.6% month on month. By contrast, the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7, and one-year inflation expectations rose from 4% to 4.6%. Business demand for equipment is diverging from households’ concerns about purchasing power.
  • Technology investor Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) argues that personal AI agents could increase demand for processors, memory, authentication and data centres. The same shift could challenge software sold on a per-person licence and intermediaries that acquire customers through advertising. This is a business-model thesis, not a profit forecast that justifies today’s price for every infrastructure company.

Market levels

Oil and rates

  • Brent’s latest close was $104.32. A move toward the $106.60 resistance I am watching would reverse Friday’s relief; settling below $100 would be a more meaningful threshold for energy costs. We remain above the lower $95-$96 support area.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains high at 5.17%. A retreat toward the lower support areas at 5.11% and 5% could ease financing pressure; a return toward resistance around 5.20% would again challenge stocks priced on distant future profits.

U.S. indexes and chips

  • The S&P 500 closed at about 7,743. Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) maintained his 7,800 target in an assessment before Friday’s open, then said he expected a decline in October. That is a scenario: 7,800 has not yet been crossed, and the earlier 7,650 support remains important below.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, finished the day at $744.50. A break above $745.92, the top of Friday’s range, could extend the recovery. If it falls back below the $739.64 support level, the day’s buying appetite needs to be reassessed; these are ETF prices, not index points.
  • SMH ($SMH), which tracks semiconductor companies, rose 1% to $606.56. A new-high thesis is not complete before price reaches the earlier $616-$617 resistance area. Friday’s low at $602.22 is the first nearby support; Şatıroğlu’s $587 stop-loss reference marks the downside limit of his short-term bullish view.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is around $83,918 this morning. Şatıroğlu says he does not know which way the consolidation will break: $82,700 is support below, while $85,100-$85,200 is the resistance area he expects to be cleared with a strong rise. Merely touching the threshold is not enough; the risk of a reversal remains if the move is weak.
  • Ethereum is around $2,685 and above the $2,630 support level. Şatıroğlu’s condition that the $2,730-$2,740 area be cleared has not yet been met; if it is, the next resistance is $2,810. A move expected in Bitcoin does not automatically imply gains across other cryptocurrencies.
  • GLD ($GLD), which tracks gold, rose to $393.41 on Friday, while SLV ($SLV), which tracks silver, reached $58.14. Friday’s lows, $390.05 and $57.25 respectively, are support; the day’s highs of $394.22 and $58.52 are resistance. A break above these ranges would strengthen the recovery, while losing the lows would signal that the gains were not held.

Red flags

  • Until the gap between a diplomatic offer and an accepted agreement closes, it is risky to treat the fall in oil as lasting. Weekend headlines could create a gap in Monday’s prices; trading near Friday’s close may not be possible.
  • If consumers’ higher inflation expectations feed into spending and wage demands, a one-day fall in energy prices may have only a limited effect on the Fed. Survey expectations are not realized inflation.

Calendar

  • Monday, September 28: U.S. stock markets reopen. I will watch whether weekend news about Iran moves oil, Treasury yields and technology stocks in the same direction.
  • Wednesday, September 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. personal income and outlays, including the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The inflation measure followed by the Fed will be important for rate expectations.
  • Friday, October 2, 8:30 a.m. ET: the U.S. employment report for September. The combination of hiring and wage growth will help compare companies’ sales outlook with inflation pressure.

My analysis

I first want to see whether the improvement on the cost side holds before treating the rebound as durable. When oil falls, companies can retain more profit from the same sales; if energy becomes more expensive again, strong demand alone may not protect margins. On Monday, I will assess whether stock buying continues alongside the response in oil and Treasury markets.

In AI, I am watching the difference between increased usage and earning a return on investment. More activity by agents could increase infrastructure needs; if customer fees do not cover the cost of those transactions, growth may not strengthen a company’s cash position. I would have more confidence in this thesis if lower energy costs, stable financing and rising paid demand appeared together. For now, I am not substituting a compelling story for a reasonable price and realized profits.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.