Oil fell toward $77, but that relief is not enough by itself. Hormuz is no longer the day's central issue. The focus has shifted to rates, divergence within technology and the extreme volatility in the space theme after SpaceX.

Key takeaways

  • Brent is near $76.74. Remaining well below the $95-$96 war-and-inflation threshold is positive for global markets and especially for US risk appetite.
  • That optimism does not mean the problem is fully resolved. The Guardian reported that the US had eased sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days and that the Swiss talks produced a roadmap.
  • In Bloomberg Television's interview with Donald Trump, however, the tone remained: “If Iran does not comply, I will do what is necessary.”
  • The S&P 500 last closed at 7,472.79. Watch 7,450 as support and 7,550 as resistance. The broad US market cannot be treated as a new, strong buying zone until it clears 7,550.
  • Weakness is more visible in the Nasdaq. As Yahoo Finance also stressed, capital is not leaving the entire market.
  • Rotation is moving from mega-cap technology and software toward smaller companies, financials, industrials and selected semiconductor names.
  • SMH remains strong while IGV, the software ETF, has weakened. In my view, this is not “the end of AI”; it is a period in which capital is becoming more selective within AI.
  • SpaceX/SPCX broke $174 support and closed at $154.60. The theme remains interesting but now needs to be read through very high volatility, supply and lock-up risk.
  • Bitcoin is around $62,800 and has fallen back below the $64,000 repair level. A stronger crypto setup requires reclaiming $64,000.

What happened?

  • The oil market is pricing a peace scenario. According to The Guardian, the US eased sanctions on Iranian oil until August 21.
  • The parties are working on a roadmap toward a permanent agreement within 60 days.
  • Brent moving below the $95 war-and-inflation threshold supports US equities in the short term. But that should be read as “oil is not creating pressure for now,” not “the risk is over.”
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.48%-4.49% in the morning. The 4.50% area is critical; if yields remain there, valuation multiples for technology shares stay under pressure.
  • Yahoo Finance described the June 22 close as mixed: the Dow rose, the S&P 500 edged lower and the Nasdaq weakened sharply.
  • The market therefore looks more like rotation and divergence within technology than a broad collapse.
  • The Micron-Anthropic partnership brought the AI memory bottleneck back into focus. Memory and semiconductors remained strong, while selling was more pronounced in software.
  • The post-IPO sell-off in SpaceX/SPCX needs to be considered alongside plans to raise more than $20 billion of debt and the small public float.
  • Future lock-up expiries mean the space theme now carries liquidity and supply risk, not just an attractive story.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu maintained his sideways-range view for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Kanal Finans.
  • He also discussed AI strategies designed to beat the S&P 500 through the lens of risk-adjusted return. The lesson is to consider drawdown risk and volatility, not only returns.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is near $76.74. Watch $72 as downside support, $95-$96 as the war-and-inflation threshold and $120 as major-stress resistance.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is in the 4.48%-4.49% band. The 4.40% level is support and a relief threshold; 4.50% is resistance and a risk boundary.
  • The dollar index is near 101. The 100 level is psychological support and the 102-103 band is a resistance and risk area. A strong dollar can limit appetite for gold, silver and emerging-market assets.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,472.79. Support is 7,450 and 7,550 is resistance and confirmation. A move below 7,450 raises risk; a break above 7,550 strengthens the picture.
  • The main technical range for the Nasdaq 100 is 29,700 support and 30,700 resistance and confirmation.
  • As long as 29,700 holds, the technology market does not look like a panic. A move above 30,700 confirms renewed strength.
  • QQQ is near $737-$738. Watch $734-$735 as support and $745-$750 as the resistance and confirmation band. When the live Nasdaq 100 level cannot be confirmed, QQQ is the cleaner proxy.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is around $666-$669. The main support is $640, the lower support zone is $624-$616 and the resistance and confirmation band is $690-$700.
  • As long as this range holds, semiconductors remain stronger than software.
  • IGV closed at $87.31. The lower support is $86, $89 is the first repair level and $92 is the stronger resistance and confirmation. Software remains weak below $89.
  • SPCX/SpaceX closed at $154.60. The $150 area is the first important support, the $135 IPO price is the main support, and broken $174 support is now resistance and confirmation.
  • Rocket Lab closed at $100.29. The $96.50-$100 band is support and $106-$110 is the resistance and confirmation area. Inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 is structurally positive, but the price is still testing support.
  • EchoStar/SATS closed at $106.40. Support is $104 and the $109-$111 band is resistance and confirmation. The SpaceX and AT&T spectrum story is interesting, but volatility is high.
  • AST SpaceMobile closed at $73.19. Support is $72.50 and the $79-$80 area is resistance and confirmation. The direct-to-device theme is strong, but it also belongs to the high-volatility category.
  • Micron's AI memory story has strengthened. Ahead of Wednesday's earnings, the primary risk is not a particular technical level but expectations becoming too elevated and the possibility of profit-taking after the news.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is around $62,800. Support is $62,000 and $60,000, the repair level is $64,000 and resistance is $67,500. A strong recovery is not confirmed until $64,000 is reclaimed.
  • Ether is around $1,686. The $1,700 level is the support and repair threshold, lower support is $1,600 and resistance sits at $1,780 and $1,840. The weak setup continues below $1,700.
  • XRP is around $1.11-$1.12. The $1.12 level is support and repair, lower support is $1.08 and resistance is $1.16. It is too early to call a strong repair before $1.16 is cleared.
  • Gold is near $4,116. The $4,100-$4,200 area is support and $4,400-$4,500 is the resistance and repair zone. With continued pressure from the dollar and rates, there is no need to rush in the short term.
  • Silver is near $62.28. The $62 area is support and $65-$66 is the resistance and repair band. Silver is more volatile than gold, so a loss of support may be priced more sharply.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 is at 14,729.65. The 14,600 level is support and a positive threshold, 15,000 is the first psychological resistance and the 330-340 area on the dollar-based chart is the larger resistance.
  • USD/TRY is near 46.48. Support is 46.20 and resistance is 47.00; the spot rate alone is not signalling panic.
  • Reserves, the possibility of an early election and external financing conditions are the macro risks that matter most for the currency.

Red flags

  • Lower oil is good for markets, but the decline is largely pricing the diplomatic scenario.
  • If the 60-day roadmap breaks down, a return in Brent toward the $95-$96 threshold would weigh on global risk appetite again.
  • If the US 10-year yield remains around 4.50%, the main problem for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq becomes the discount rate rather than oil.
  • SpaceX/SPCX has broken $174 support. The small public float, debt plans and future lock-up calendar could increase volatility.
  • Not every AI stock is reacting in the same way. Memory and semiconductors are strong; software and expensive narrative stocks are weaker. If that divergence continues, the “AI theme” should not be treated as a single block.
  • Crypto remains fragile while Bitcoin stays below $64,000. A move below $60,000 could revive Tunç Şatıroğlu's previous downside scenario toward $53,600.

Calendar

  • Today at 16:45 Istanbul time: US S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs. PMIs indicate whether production and services are accelerating or slowing.
  • Wednesday, June 24: US new-home sales and the EIA weekly petroleum status report. Inventories and tanker flows are important for the durability of the decline in Brent.
  • Wednesday, June 24: Micron earnings are the AI memory theme's most important short-term test.
  • Thursday, June 25: US headline and core PCE inflation. This is among the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation measures.
  • From mid-August onward: monitor SpaceX/SPCX lock-up expiries, which may create supply pressure as they approach.

My analysis

The central picture is straightforward: oil is providing relief, but the risk has not disappeared.

Brent below $95-$96 is positive for US risk appetite. Even so, rates and divergence within technology now matter at least as much as oil.

In my view, this is not the end of AI. A better reading is that capital has become more selective within AI.

Memory, semiconductors and infrastructure remain strong while software and expensive narrative stocks face greater scrutiny.

The 7,450-7,550 range in the S&P 500 is the day's cleanest compass. Holding 7,450 limits the panic signal; clearing 7,550 strengthens risk appetite.

Until that range breaks, the broad US market cannot be treated as an aggressive new buying zone.

The story in space remains substantial, but price action is now issuing a warning.

SPCX below $174, Rocket Lab back near $100 and violent volatility in ASTS and SATS all matter. In this theme, position sizing and patience are as important as technical analysis.

In short: oil helps, rates sit at the boundary and technology is diverging. The stronger market today is semiconductors and memory. The weaker one is software, crypto and the most volatile space narratives.

Sources

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.