Micron showed that demand for AI memory remains strong, but the week's close showed that investors have become far more selective in semiconductor and mega-cap technology shares.

The S&P 500 held its main support area. By contrast, the damage in the Nasdaq 100 and SMH has not been repaired. The question entering the new week is whether relief in oil and rates can offset selling pressure in technology.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 last closed at 7,354.02. The 7,350-7,327 support area remains active; 7,450 is the first recovery level and 7,550 is stronger resistance. The index has not broken away from support, but it has not produced a strong buying signal either.
  • The Nasdaq 100 fell to 29,118.24. The previous 29,300 support was broken; QQQ ($QQQ) is at $706.52, below $712 support and just above the lower support area of $700-$705. It is too early to say the selling in mega-cap technology is over.
  • SMH ($SMH), the semiconductor ETF, fell to $611.61. The $624 support was lost, $608 is the lower support to monitor and $640 is the first level that must be reclaimed. Micron reported strong earnings, but the semiconductor sector could not carry that strength into the end of the week.
  • Brent is near $72.60. The $70-$72 area is support and $76-$80 is the first resistance zone. Although headlines around Hormuz remain fragile, Brent below $80 is currently the most important source of relief limiting inflation and Fed pressure.
  • Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic adviser and Wharton professor, told Yahoo Finance that his central expectation was for no change in Fed rates this year. That is not the direct relief of rate cuts; it means the market may continue to swing with data, inflation and Fed communication.

What happened?

  • Yahoo Finance Live's weekly summary was clear. Mega-cap technology shares pulled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 lower, while the equal-weight S&P 500 and small companies held up better. Selling did not spread everywhere with the same intensity, but pressure was severe in technology-heavy indices.
  • Bloomberg Television's The Close focused on volatility in semiconductor shares. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index traded across a range of roughly ten percentage points during the week, and Bank of America data showed a record $9.3 billion outflow from technology funds.
  • That suggests profit-taking and risk reduction after many investors crowded into the same technology shares, rather than the end of the AI story.
  • Micron ($MU) closed at $1,132.33. The $1,180-$1,210 post-earnings support zone was lost and $1,250 remains the first important resistance. This does not mean AI memory demand weakened; it means short-term price confirmation after the report broke down.
  • The Fed debate remains mixed. El-Erian said some institutions expected a rate increase and others a cut, while his own expectation was for the Fed to wait this year.
  • New Fed chair Kevin Warsh's review of the institution's framework and communications is intended to make markets respond less as though every data release requires panic.
  • Hormuz risk is not over. Bloomberg Television's Balance of Power reported that US forces struck storage facilities and coastal radar sites in Iran after an attack on a commercial vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Even so, falling oil matters. For now, the market is not pricing a lasting disruption to energy flows.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is near $72.60. Support is $70-$72, the first resistance levels are $76 and $80, and $95-$96 is the war-and-inflation threshold. As long as Brent remains below $80, inflation pressure on global equities is limited. Because Hormuz headlines remain fragile, however, a move above $80 must be taken seriously in the new week.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.37%. The 4.38%-4.40% area is the relief threshold and 4.50% is the risk boundary. Remaining below 4.40% supports growth shares; a return above 4.50% increases pressure on the Nasdaq and semiconductors.
  • The dollar index is near 101.37. Support is 100-101 and resistance is 102-103. A move above 102 would make a recovery in gold, silver and crypto more difficult.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,354.02. Support is 7,350-7,327, first resistance is 7,450 and stronger resistance is 7,550. The close says support remains alive, but the weekly selling cannot be called over before 7,450 is reclaimed.
  • The Nasdaq 100 is at 29,118.24. It lost 29,300 support; 29,000 is psychological support, while 29,700 and 30,700 are previous recovery resistances. The Nasdaq is weaker than the S&P 500, and whether 29,300 is reclaimed on Monday matters.
  • QQQ ($QQQ) is at $706.52. Lower support is $700-$705, first recovery resistance is $734-$735 and stronger resistance is $745-$750. QQQ below $712 increases the need for patience and confirmation in technology.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH ($SMH) is at $611.61. Support is $608, $624 is now the first resistance and $640 is the first serious confirmation level. A move below $608 would weaken the post-Micron semiconductor recovery; a return above $640 would show the sector beginning to repair the damage.
  • Micron ($MU) is at $1,132.33. The $1,100-$1,120 band is near support, $1,180-$1,210 is now first resistance and $1,250 is stronger resistance. The report remains strong, but losing support sends the short-term message that good news was not enough.
  • IGV ($IGV), the software ETF, is at $88.20. Support is $86, first resistance is $89 and the stronger confirmation level is $92. Software reacted better than semiconductors, but it is too early to call a strong recovery before the $89-$92 band is cleared.
  • IWM, the US small-cap ETF, is at $299.83. Support is $294-$295, first resistance is $300 and upper resistance is $305. Small companies show that the market damage has not spread to every index, but holding above $300 is essential.
  • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) is at $84.54. Support is $80, first resistance is $84-$85 and the stronger recovery zone is $92-$95. The long-term space theme may remain alive, but short-term risk is high until the stock reclaims $92-$95.
  • SPCX ($SPCX) is at $153.23. Near support is $150, the $135 IPO reference is the main support and $174 is the first important resistance. Until $174 is reclaimed, post-IPO volatility connected to SpaceX remains in place.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $60,400. The $59,000-$60,000 band is support, $62,000 is the first resistance and $64,000 is the stronger confirmation level. Bitcoin is trying to hold above $60,000, but there is no strong crypto recovery before $64,000 is reclaimed.
  • Ether is near $1,582. The $1,520-$1,600 band is support, $1,700 is first resistance and $1,840 is stronger resistance. Ether remains in its support area; the setup stays weak below $1,700.
  • XRP is near $1.058. Support is $1.00, $1.05 is the first threshold and $1.12 is stronger resistance. A return above $1.05 would provide short-term relief, but the setup is not fully repaired before $1.12 is cleared.
  • Gold futures are near $4,096. Support is $4,000, lower support is $3,950 and the $4,100-$4,200 band is resistance. Gold is again at the door of $4,100. Falling rates and the dollar would strengthen the picture; a dollar index above 102 would increase pressure.
  • Silver futures are near $59.67. Support is $55-$56 and resistance is $60-$62. Silver has approached $60, but because it is more volatile than gold, it does not provide a strong continuation signal before the $60-$62 band is cleared.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 is at 14,274.02. Support is 14,200 and 14,000, first resistance is 14,440-14,460 and the stronger confirmation level is 14,600. The short-term picture remains weak while the BIST stays below 14,600.
  • USD/TRY is near 46.55. Support is 46.20 and resistance is 47.00. The currency looks calm, but foreign-investor confidence, reserves, market rules and political risk are the decisive factors for the BIST.

Red flags

  • If the S&P 500 falls below 7,327, the support structure breaks. If QQQ loses the $700-$705 band, the risk of a second leg in technology selling increases.
  • If SMH falls below $608 or Micron below its $1,100-$1,120 support zone, post-earnings price damage in semiconductors needs to be taken more seriously.
  • If the US 10-year yield returns above 4.50%, the Fed discussion shifts from “will it cut?” to “will it stay tighter?” and growth shares come under pressure.
  • If Brent establishes itself above $80, inflation relief weakens. Near $95-$96, Hormuz and war risk again become the main market story.
  • If Bitcoin falls below $59,000 and the BIST 100 below 14,000, weak links in crypto and Turkey become more pronounced.

Calendar

  • Monday, June 29: S&P 500 at 7,350-7,327, QQQ at $700-$705, SMH at $608 and Brent at $80 will show the market's first reaction.
  • Thursday, July 2: the US employment report. Yahoo Finance discussed expectations for non-farm payrolls to fall to 115,000 while unemployment remains near 4.3%. Weak but non-alarming data could support technology; strong wage or inflation signals would increase Fed pressure.
  • Friday, July 3: normal US trading is disrupted by the July 4 holiday. Thursday's data and close may therefore provide the week's main pricing signal.

My analysis

This week did not show that the AI story was over. It showed that the era in which every AI headline was bought automatically is weakening.

Micron's report says demand remains strong. But Micron lost the $1,180-$1,210 post-earnings support zone, SMH fell below $624 and QQQ closed below $712. The news was good; the market's pricing was weak.

My decision tree for the new week is therefore simple:

  • Can the S&P 500 hold the 7,350-7,327 support area and reclaim 7,450?
  • Can QQQ hold $700-$705 and recover toward $734-$735?
  • Can SMH avoid falling below $608 and reclaim $624, then $640?
  • Can Brent remain below $80 and limit pressure on inflation and the Fed?

If all four answers are positive, the weekend picture remains a severe but manageable technology correction. If the answers are weak, even exceptionally strong company results such as Micron's may not be enough for the broad market.

Sources

  • Yahoo Finance: youtube.com
  • Yahoo Finance / Mohamed El-Erian: youtube.com
  • Bloomberg Television / The Close: youtube.com
  • Bloomberg Television / Balance of Power: youtube.com
  • Previous technical and thematic frameworks from Kanal Finans and Bora Özkent ile Nasdaq.
  • Yahoo Finance market data.

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.