U.S. stocks recovered most of their intraday losses yesterday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing almost flat. But oil rose as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.18%, raising the cost of sustaining the rebound.

News of talks over the Strait of Hormuz brought buyers back. What I will watch now is whether this optimism translates into cheaper energy and lower borrowing costs, because for buying sparked by one headline to last, companies’ earnings expectations also need to hold up.

Key takeaways

  • An almost flat index close does not mean the day was quiet. The recovery from the morning selloff shows that buyers are still active; whether that appetite persists after today’s data will matter more than a one-session reaction.
  • Meta ($META) rose on its own AI news while the semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) ended slightly lower. The effect of company news needs to be separated from the broader direction of the sector, rather than treating technology as one group.
  • Gold and silver funds also fell, a reminder that geopolitical tensions do not lift every asset at once. As interest-bearing alternatives strengthen, safe-haven demand alone may not be enough to support prices.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as yields rose. On Thursday, the indexes recovered their losses even as yields continued higher. What changed was not an improvement in financing conditions, but investors again allocating money to the possibility of diplomacy and to growth at some companies.

What happened?

  • The S&P 500 closed on September 24 at 7,704.13, down by a very small amount. The Nasdaq Composite was also almost flat, while the Dow fell 0.3%. The divergence among the indexes shows that gains in large technology companies did not spread across the whole market.
  • According to Reuters’ September 24 report, U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased exit that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the U.S. economic blockade of Iran. A Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia on the same day added to concerns about oil supply. Talks continuing does not mean shipping has returned to normal.
  • Meta ended the day up 4.5% at $777.59. CNBC and Yahoo Finance linked the move to the company’s Muse AI app and plans to monetize it. Whether user interest turns into recurring revenue will be the key company outcome to watch when assessing the rise.
  • Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping extended their trade truce by two months in their talks. This reduces near-term tariff uncertainty; it does not remove technology competition or energy costs.

Market levels

Oil and Treasury yields

  • Brent ended Thursday up 3.4% at $106.60. A move back below $100 would be the first condition for relief in energy costs; staying above the $95-$96 area I had been watching keeps pressure on company costs and inflation. A fall in energy costs is the threshold that could support stocks here; I am not assuming oil will reach those levels immediately.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18% from 5.11% on Wednesday. The first threshold for support to stocks is a return to the previous day’s yield, followed by a move below 5%. If yields keep rising, it becomes harder to justify paying a high price today for profits expected in the future.

U.S. indexes and chips

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,704.13, with 7,650 as prior support and around 7,765 as initial resistance. Technical analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu maintains in his latest assessment that 7,800 could be crossed. The latest close remains below that expectation; losing support would first weaken the scenario that looks for a new high.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, ended Thursday at $741.10. Wednesday’s low of $734.62 can be watched as near-term support, with the $742.66 high as initial resistance. A break above the upper bound could extend the intraday recovery; a break below the lower bound would undo buyers’ last line of defence.
  • SMH fell as low as $588.92 before recovering to $600.52, a concrete example of intraday buying in chips; Wednesday’s low can be watched as near-term support. Şatıroğlu’s latest stop-loss reference is $587. Above, Wednesday’s $602.03 high is the first resistance, followed by the earlier $616-$617 resistance area. Moving away from the low and clearing these resistances are separate steps.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is around $84,187 this morning. Wednesday’s low near $82,865 can be watched as support. Reclaiming the earlier $84,600-$85,000 area and holding above it is the first condition for a recovery. If Bitcoin remains below it, the stock-market rebound will not have been matched with equal strength in crypto.
  • GLD ($GLD), which tracks gold, closed at $391.69. Wednesday’s low of $389.05 is the first support below; clearing resistance at $393.07 would strengthen the attempt to recoup the day’s loss. These prices refer to the ETF share, not the price of an ounce of gold.
  • SLV ($SLV), which tracks silver, fell more than the gold ETF and closed at $57.62. A move below the $56.95 support level carries a risk of renewed weakness; the previous close at $58.16 is initial resistance. Reclaiming that level would be a stronger sign that selling is easing. Silver’s sensitivity to industrial demand can also make it move differently from gold.

Red flags

  • New attacks on energy infrastructure after positive statements about diplomacy could reverse prices again within the same day. This headline risk matters as the weekend approaches.
  • If buying remains concentrated in a few large companies while yields rise, the market beneath the indexes will be more fragile. I will not look only at Meta when assessing today’s rebound.

Calendar

  • September 25, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: U.S. durable goods orders, an indicator of demand for long-lasting products and company investment. The effect of strong demand on Treasury yields will matter.
  • September 25, 5:00 p.m. Turkey time: the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading and inflation expectations. The focus will be how persistent households expect price increases to be.
  • September 30, 3:30 p.m. Turkey time: the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. personal income and outlays report. As one of the inflation measures followed by the Fed, it could affect rate expectations.

My analysis

I do not read yesterday’s buying as proof that the market has adjusted to high interest rates. Expectations that companies will earn more can temporarily overshadow borrowing costs. But for that balance to last, sales and profits must also meet expectations. That is why I pay attention to excitement around Meta’s product; I also keep in view the distance between an app’s popularity and the money it brings into the company.

Today I will first watch the bond market’s reaction to the data, then whether buying in chips continues. If yields fall despite strong data and more companies join the advance, I would turn more positive. If oil stays expensive, credit costs rise and only a few stocks carry the indexes, I will be more cautious about expectations for new highs.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.