As Bitcoin neared $80,000 on Sunday morning, U.S. semiconductor stocks held up after strong employment data. But it is too early to conclude that the entire market has found relief; this week's inflation data could reopen the question of how long rates may stay high.

I am not approaching this week with a simple expectation that prices will rise. Crypto has thresholds to clear, while some technology companies are not participating in the advance. I will first watch how far the rebound spreads, then whether the data supports the move.

What changed since yesterday?

  • There is no new U.S. stock session; Friday's closes are unchanged. The tanker attack reported over the weekend adds a risk that has not yet been reflected in Friday's prices.

Key takeaways

  • It matters that U.S. stock markets are closed on Monday: we will not be able to say that the move in crypto that day is also being supported by the U.S. equity market. Tuesday's open will be the first chance to see whether the two markets are moving in the same direction.
  • It can be misleading to assess semiconductor and software companies under one technology heading. One group's resilience does not mean selling in the other has ended; a stronger picture would require more companies to join the advance.
  • Strong employment may support consumption, but if inflation also stays high it narrows the Fed's room to ease. Good growth news and expensive financing can affect stocks at the same time.

What happened?

  • In Associated Press's September 4 closing summary, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% while the Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap companies, rose 0.2%. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.37%. The two equity indexes closing in opposite directions makes the reaction to the employment data difficult to describe in a single word.
  • In his September 5 assessment, Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) sees the stock-market reaction as limited despite strong employment and says he does not expect a rate hike. That is his view; trading on expectations of a low inflation reading is still different from seeing that reading actually released.
  • U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on September 5 that it struck three Iranian crude-oil tankers after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted two U.S. warships with missiles. This adds a new risk to transportation and insurance costs; its impact on oil supply remains uncertain.

Market levels

U.S. stocks

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 on Friday. 7,700 remains support and 7,750 resistance that needs to be cleared again; the narrow range between the two lines offers no strong directional signal for the new week.
  • The QQQ ETF ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $718.96. Although $721.86 was seen on Friday, there was no close above the $720 resistance. Reclaiming this line would strengthen the rebound; below, $712 remains a prior support.
  • The semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) closed at $567.01 on Friday. It would be positive to establish support above the $562 threshold in Şatıroğlu's latest assessment; $572 must be cleared for stronger confirmation. A move below $545 would weaken the structure he described; these are conditional monitoring lines, not price targets.
  • The software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) last closed at $104.57, showing that the previous rebound to $106 did not hold. Friday's $104.36 low is nearby support below; clearing $106 first, then the resistance zone at $108, would improve the group's picture.

Crypto and gold

  • Bitcoin ($BTC) traded around $79,828 on Sunday morning. It is above Şatıroğlu's first threshold at $79,000; it needs to hold this area as support and clear the resistance zone at $80,000. Staying above it afterward matters as much as touching it, because a reversal would put the first rebound back into question.
  • Ethereum ($ETH) was around $2,510, above the $2,490 confirmation zone. This area becoming support would help the rally continue; Şatıroğlu's lower $2,380 line is a separate risk boundary for judging whether the move has broken down.
  • XRP's ($XRP) approximate price of $1.4177 is just below the $1.42 confirmation threshold. I do not count Bitcoin's move as a confirmed breakout for XRP; it must clear its own boundary. Failure to find support at $1.36 would weaken the analyst's rebound expectation.
  • The gold-tracking GLD ETF closed at $406.77 on Friday; this is not the spot gold price. I will watch whether support forms at the same session's $403.96 low and whether the $408 high is cleared. If the upper boundary is cleared while rate pressure persists, that would be the first confirmation that gold is gaining strength on its own.

Red flags

  • If inflation exceeds expectations, it could pressure companies whose valuations rely heavily on future earnings. I am not assuming in advance that semiconductors' earlier resilience will continue on such a day.
  • A new disruption in oil shipping could increase price pressure through energy costs. Assuming in advance that oil will not rise would understate this possibility.

Calendar

  • Sunday, September 6: A meeting involving seven OPEC+ countries is planned. Any production decision will be monitored for its implications for energy supply.
  • Monday, September 7: U.S. stock markets are closed for Labor Day; the next regular session is Tuesday, September 8.
  • Thursday, September 10, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. Producer costs and prices will provide additional information ahead of the consumer data.
  • Friday, September 11, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. All times are Türkiye time.
  • September 15-16: Fed rate meeting (FOMC). Employment and this week's inflation data will be assessed together.

My analysis

The impression Friday left me with is that strong employment has not completely eliminated the possibility of a stock-market rebound. But the tanker attack over the weekend is a reminder that we may not be able to continue into the new week from where Friday's close left off. I do not want to downplay this risk based on the resilience of a few semiconductor stocks. On Tuesday, I will first look at how the oil news feeds through to rates, then whether stocks can absorb that pressure.

What would change my mind by the end of the week is whether post-data prices hold. If softer inflation is followed by a rise that includes software, I would view the rebound more positively. If the initial enthusiasm does not carry into the close and the crypto thresholds are lost, I see no reason to rush. For now, it seems more meaningful to me to watch without putting expectations ahead of actual prices.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.