Chip shares rebounded on Monday after several weeks of heavy selling, but the rally seen in the first hours of the session did not survive into the close. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Dow Jones 0.6%, while the Nasdaq finished almost flat. Brent closed at $89.22, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained at 4.60%.

This picture points less to a new artificial-intelligence rally than to an initial rebound under pressure from high oil prices and interest rates. The main question now is this: Can Alphabet and Tesla earnings turn the rebound in chips into a lasting recovery, or will the rally once again fade during the session?

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,443.28, just below the 7,450 threshold. QQQ ($QQQ) reached $705.78 intraday but closed at $695.97. Technology's failure to carry its morning rally into the close shows that buyers remain selective and short-term.
  • SMH, the semiconductor-company ETF ($SMH), closed at $558.21, while DRAM, the memory-company ETF ($DRAM), finished at $53.11. SMH climbed as high as $572.53 intraday but remained below $560; $58 is still the first technical confirmation for DRAM, while $49.50 is critical support.
  • Brent traded between $86 and $91 on Monday before closing 1.3% higher at $89.22. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.60% and the 30-year yield to 5.11%. With oil and rates elevated at the same time, the rebound in chips could not turn into a broader index rally.
  • Bitcoin was around $65,500 on Tuesday morning and Ethereum near $1,922. Bitcoin is holding support at $64,000, while Ethereum is preserving support at $1,840. Crypto is more resilient than technology shares, but there is no strong confirmation of broader risk appetite until Bitcoin breaks above $67,700.
  • SpaceX ($SPCX) closed at $119.83, dropping just below $120 support for the first time. Rocket Lab ($RKLB) stands at $65.76 and AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) at $57.40. Space shares are approaching support zones, but there is no price-confirmed reversal yet.
  • The BIST 100 rose 0.64% on Monday to close at 14,070.98, while USD/TRY was around 47.20 on Tuesday morning. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announces its rate decision on July 23. The index returned above 14,000, but high oil prices are increasing pressure on Turkey's inflation and current-account balance.

What happened?

  • The clearest picture in the Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) broadcast was in the Nasdaq: the index was up roughly 1% in the morning before giving back all its gains into the close. The Dow Jones fell 307 points and the S&P 500 lost 0.2%. The move shows that investors bought the dip in chips but remained unwilling to hold the position into the close in a high-rate environment.
  • At Monday's close, Nvidia ($NVDA) rose roughly 0.3% to $203.33 and Micron ($MU) roughly 2% to $866.08. SMH and DRAM also finished higher. QQQ, however, fell about 1.4% from its intraday high, meaning the recovery in chips did not spread across the full technology index.
  • The central debate on Yahoo Finance is no longer simply “will artificial-intelligence spending continue?” It is “when will this spending turn into revenue and profit?” When large technology companies announce more data-center and chip investment, the market may no longer applaud automatically. Investors want to see cloud growth, margins and cash flow at the same time.
  • A similar distinction emerged on CNBC's (@CNBC) Mad Money. Many artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks, while Nvidia has remained relatively resilient. This does not mean the AI theme is over. It means investors are no longer pricing every company in the theme as a single package while the cost of capital is rising.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) of Kanal Finans said in his latest video that the Strait of Hormuz was close to reopening and that this could bring relief to oil, interest rates, equities and precious metals. This is an important alternative scenario, but current data have not yet confirmed it. The Associated Press reported that ship traffic through the strait had fallen by roughly 50% over the past week and that a second vessel was attacked on Monday.
  • Tunç's more cautious market message is more consistent with prices. He said he preferred to wait in the S&P 500, that the Nasdaq 100 might need a few more days to complete its technical decline and that investors should not rush into new SMH purchases after critical support levels broke. Monday's selling from the highs into the close supports that caution.
  • Tunç's framework for DRAM is clear: there is no upside confirmation below $58, while a break under $49.50 would further damage the structure. The ETF reached $55.19 on Monday but closed at $53.11. Memory shares have rebounded, but there is still no confirmation that the falling channel has ended.
  • Bloomberg Television (@BloombergTV) reported that US attacks continued on the tenth day of the war with Iran, that Iran-backed Houthis threatened a naval blockade against Saudi vessels in the Red Sea and that new 50% US tariffs on Canada opened a second line of risk. The energy shock is no longer limited to Hormuz. Red Sea and trade-war headlines have also entered market pricing.
  • US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods on Monday. Adding a new trade cost to the energy pressure from Hormuz means inflation could be fed not only by oil but also by imported products. The 10-year yield's move to 4.60% therefore weighed on small companies as well as technology shares; the Russell 2000 finished the day down 0.7%.
  • SpaceX fell as low as $119.70 on Monday and closed at $119.83. Tunç said he expected a new Starship test after Thursday's close and that a successful test could be a catalyst for the stock. I could not independently verify this timing on SpaceX's public official schedule, so I am tracking it as a source scenario, not a confirmed calendar item.
  • Precious metals also lack price confirmation. Tunç thinks gold and silver are ready to break higher within a few days, but GLD ($GLD) closed Monday slightly lower at $367.58 and SLV ($SLV) at $50.99. Geopolitical demand and high bond yields continue to offset each other.
  • The financing side of the artificial-intelligence sovereignty debate in recent issues of The Economist is more visible today. A country or company may want to build its own chips, data centers and models, but the economic return on those investments is questioned more aggressively as the cost of capital rises. A US 10-year yield of 4.60% is a reminder that the AI race is also a financing race, not only a technology race.

Market levels

Global risk and rates

  • Brent stands at $89.22. The first support is $88-$88.50, the first resistance is $93 and $95-$96 is the more dangerous risk zone. Remaining below $93 may contain the shock; settling above $95 would again increase pressure on inflation and central banks.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield officially closed at 4.60%, while the 30-year yield stands at 5.11%. The first support and relief threshold is 4.50%, 4.60% is the current resistance and breakout point, and 4.70% would be a more difficult zone for technology valuations. A sustained return below 4.50% becomes harder without a decline in oil.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 stands at 7,443.28. The first threshold to reclaim is now 7,450, the lower support zone is 7,350-7,327 and stronger resistance is at 7,550. The index slipped below support by only a few points, but it is too early to say it held until 7,450 is reclaimed.
  • QQQ stands at $695.97. The first support is $687-$690, the first resistance is $700-$705 and $712 is the stronger recovery level. The reversal from an intraday $705.78 to a $695.97 close showed why the $700-$705 area is the first confirmation zone.
  • IWM ($IWM) stands at $292.32, at the lower edge of its $292-$294 support band. The first resistance is $300. Small companies underperforming chips on Monday shows that rate pressure has spread across the broader market.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH stands at $558.21. The first support is $537-$540, $560 is the first resistance and reclaim level, and $590 is the stronger recovery zone. The damage in chips remains because the ETF reached $572.53 intraday but closed below $560.
  • DRAM stands at $53.11. Support is at $49.50 and $58 is the first technical confirmation. Micron stands at $866.08, with support at $804-$820 and resistance at $875-$905. Memory shares rebounded on Monday, but Micron did not enter its resistance band and DRAM did not reach its confirmation level.
  • Nvidia stands at $203.33. The first support is $198-$200 and the first resistance is $207-$210. Nvidia's resilience relative to other artificial-intelligence infrastructure shares is positive, but fresh upside momentum is not price-confirmed until $210 is reclaimed.
  • IGV, the software-company ETF ($IGV), stands at $92.94. Support is at $92 and first resistance at $94-$95. Software has suffered less damage than chips, but clear sector leadership has not formed below $95.

Space and crypto

  • SpaceX stands at $119.83. The previous $120-$122 support band has been lost on a closing basis for the first time; that same area is now the reclaim threshold, while $130-$135 is the first strong resistance. If the stock cannot quickly return above $120, post-offering price discovery may continue lower.
  • Rocket Lab stands at $65.76, with support at $64-$65 and resistance at $70-$71. AST SpaceMobile stands at $57.40, with support at $54-$55 and resistance at $61-$62. Both stocks are close to support, but the bullish divergences Tunç described will not be price-confirmed until resistance levels are broken.
  • Bitcoin is around $65,500. The first support is $64,000, stronger support is $63,000, first resistance is $67,700 and the upper target zone is $72,000. Ethereum is around $1,922, with support at $1,840, a first threshold at $1,920 and stronger resistance at $2,000. ETH is testing its first threshold, while BTC has not yet broken resistance.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 stands at 14,070.98. The first support is 14,000, lower support is 13,882 and resistance is at 14,300-14,450. Monday's close brought short-term relief, but there is no strong trend change until 14,300 is broken.
  • USD/TRY is around 47.20. Support is at 47.00 and resistance at 47.35-47.50. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announces its decision on July 23. Tunç highlighted the possibility of easing through the policy rate or the interest-rate corridor; this is a source view, not official guidance. With Brent around $90, the currency and inflation effects of any easing will be watched more closely.

Red flags

  • If Brent rises above $93 while the US 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.60%, the rebound in chips will struggle to turn into a lasting rally. Oil at $95 and the yield at 4.70% at the same time would create heavier pressure on technology valuations.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,350, QQQ loses $687 and SMH loses $537, Monday's rebound will have been only a brief interruption. QQQ selling another intraday gain would especially weaken buyer confidence.
  • If Alphabet and Tesla announce strong artificial-intelligence spending but cannot show the corresponding revenue, margin or cash flow, the market may read further investment as a financing burden rather than a positive development.
  • Further ship attacks in Hormuz or an actual blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea could create another price gap in Brent. Tunç's reopening scenario will be confirmed only if ship traffic rises on a sustained basis.
  • An escalation in Canadian tariffs through retaliation would add new goods-price pressure to energy-driven inflation. Small companies and consumer shares could then remain weaker than chips.
  • If SpaceX cannot return above $120 while DRAM loses $49.50, Bitcoin loses $64,000 and the BIST 100 loses 14,000, caution would be rising simultaneously across different risk assets.

Calendar

  • Tuesday, July 21: In the US session, watch the 10-year yield at 4.60%, Brent at $93, the S&P 500 at 7,450, QQQ at $700-$705 and SMH at $560. The first test is whether Monday's selling from the highs repeats.
  • Wednesday, July 22: Alphabet and Tesla report earnings. The focus for Alphabet will be cloud and artificial-intelligence revenue alongside capital expenditure; for Tesla, margins, cash flow and the return on high-technology investment.
  • Thursday, July 23: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and the European Central Bank announce rate decisions, followed by Intel earnings. Oil-driven inflation risk, growth and technology investment will be tested on the same day.
  • Friday, July 24: Preliminary July manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices and June new-home sales are released. Markets will look for the first effects of high oil prices and interest rates on the real economy.
  • July 28-29: The Federal Reserve meets. Although June inflation brought relief, if Brent and bond yields remain elevated, the Fed's assessment of second-round energy effects will become more important.

My analysis

Monday's market sent two separate messages. First, buyers are still willing to respond after several weeks of selling in chip and memory shares. Second, those buyers are not yet ready to carry positions into the close with oil elevated and the Treasury yield at 4.60%. SMH's reversal from $572.53 to $558.21 and QQQ's reversal from $705.78 to $695.97 show the distinction clearly.

I therefore read the move not as “the chip rally has begun” but as “the first rebound arrived and the market did not confirm it.” A rise in Nvidia or Micron alone is not enough for confirmation. QQQ must reclaim $700-$705, SMH must reclaim $560 and the S&P 500 must close back above 7,450.

The picture could change quickly if Tunç's view that Hormuz is close to reopening proves correct. A return in Brent below $88 would ease bond yields, amplify technology's response to earnings and reduce the energy pressure on Turkey. Current ship traffic, new attacks and the Red Sea threat, however, show that the market is not yet ready to price this scenario.

The measure of this week on artificial intelligence will not be the size of spending, but its return. If Alphabet can show strong cloud growth and margins against elevated capital expenditure, the rebound in chips may broaden. If investment rises while revenue and cash flow fail to grow at the same pace, the market may start to read “more AI spending” as a new risk.

My decision tree for today is:

  • Can Brent remain below $93 while the US 10-year yield falls back from 4.60%?
  • Can the S&P 500 reclaim 7,450, QQQ reclaim $700-$705 and SMH reclaim $560 at the close?
  • Can DRAM approach $58 as Micron enters the $875-$905 band, or is Monday's rebound being given back?
  • Can SpaceX return above $120 and hold there, while Rocket Lab preserves support at $64-$65?
  • Can Bitcoin remain above $64,000 while Ethereum breaks $1,920 and then $2,000?
  • Can the BIST 100 remain above 14,000 while USD/TRY is held below 47.50 before the central-bank decision?

If oil remains below $93, the yield falls from 4.60% and SMH returns above $560, Monday's chip rebound may be the first step in a genuine recovery. If Brent heads back toward $93 while the S&P 500 cannot reclaim 7,450 and QQQ approaches $687, the rally will once again have faded before it began.

Sources

  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Yahoo Finance Live: youtube.com
  • Bloomberg Television / The Asia Trade: youtube.com
  • CNBC / Mad Money: youtube.com
  • Associated Press, US index closes: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, Iran-Hormuz developments: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, Canada tariffs: apnews.com
  • US Treasury, official July 20 yields: home.treasury.gov
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, 2026 Monetary Policy Committee calendar: tcmb.gov.tr
  • Tesla Investor Relations, Intel Newsroom, the European Central Bank and Alpaca market data.
  • The Economist: the June 27, July 4, July 11 and July 18, 2026 issues, plus the combined Turkish summary.

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.