U.S. technology stocks fell on Thursday. Concerns about OpenAI’s revenue also weighed on chip companies, while rising oil prices and high borrowing costs made the question of how to finance artificial intelligence investment more pressing.

Today I am looking beyond demand growth: how much revenue that demand brings companies and how far it covers their investment costs also matter. A deeper chip selloff on a day when the bond fund rose shows the limits of applying the same interest rate explanation to every asset.

Key takeaways

  • Even if demand for AI infrastructure continues, a customer’s revenue and a supplier’s expectations may grow at different speeds. The source of financing for a new order can therefore affect prices as much as the announcement itself.
  • SMH ($SMH), which tracks chip companies, remained below the analyst’s revised nearby support. When assessing a new purchase, I think a lower price alone is insufficient: the lost boundary needs to be regained and held.
  • The gold and bond funds recovered, while silver and crypto did not respond in the same way. Assets watched for protection should not be treated as one group that always rises together.

What happened?

  • Axios attributes the revenue discrepancy to differences in accounting methods. CNBC’s closing review said the report had weighed on related companies including Nvidia, CoreWeave and Oracle. I do not conclude that OpenAI missed a revenue target. The debate also concerns how reported revenue is calculated and compared across companies; by itself, it does not prove demand has weakened.
  • The same program said the Nasdaq lost approximately 1.25%, while the Dow edged higher. Major indexes moving in different directions suggests selling was uneven across companies. A broader selloff would be needed before treating a technology fund’s performance as representative of the entire market.
  • CNBC reported that higher oil prices were accompanied by news of fresh attacks in the Middle East and storm risk in the Gulf of Mexico. Two separate uncertainties about energy supply can affect prices at the same time; the inflation effect of more expensive oil could delay the relief investors hope for from interest rates.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday I was watching whether demand at the Treasury auction would also bring buyers into stocks. In the latest session, the bond fund rose, but the chip fund’s selloff accelerated. A report questioning AI companies’ revenue expectations added another concern to the general financing pressure; the bond rebound did not lift all technology stocks.

Market levels

Technology and bonds

  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, ended the latest session at $747.50. Thursday’s $743.28 low is a candidate support boundary, and the $757.18 high is a nearby resistance candidate and recovery test. These are single-session boundaries. Closing toward the lower end of the range suggests intraday buying did not retain its earlier strength.
  • At $606.68, SMH is below the $610 boundary watched by financial analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu); $600 remains important as support. The first recovery confirmation condition would be regaining $610; the analyst’s $640 area could become relevant afterward. He also leaves open the possibility of a dip toward $600. This conditional recovery view is different from an actual reversal.
  • IGV ($IGV), which tracks software companies, closed at $109.57. It is near the $110 resistance area highlighted by Şatıroğlu; selling there needs to be absorbed for the advance to continue. The latest session’s $108.83 low can serve as a nearby support candidate and downside risk boundary.
  • TLT ($TLT), which tracks long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, rose to $77.87. It cleared the $77.50 threshold Şatıroğlu wanted to see before considering an additional purchase; holding above that threshold will be the next test. The latest session’s $77.08 low is a candidate support boundary, and its $77.91 high is a nearby upper boundary. Meeting one price condition does not prove the downtrend has ended entirely.

Precious metals

  • GLD ($GLD), which tracks gold, recovered to $378.63. Thursday’s $376.13-$379.83 range can be used for short-term monitoring: if the low holds, the upper boundary could be tested again; if the low is lost, the rebound weakens. I do not treat one day’s high and low as durable support and resistance.
  • SLV ($SLV), which tracks silver, last closed at $53.45. That session’s $52.87 low and $53.62 high are candidate nearby support and resistance. Silver’s failure to join gold’s advance matters; industrial demand expectations also affect its price, so gold’s recovery may not automatically carry over to silver.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is approximately $82,445 this morning. It is below the $82,700 support boundary Şatıroğlu watched on September 26; I will look first for that area to be regained. The earlier $85,100-$85,200 confirmation band remains conditional on a strong upward candle and follow-through.
  • Ethereum has fallen to approximately $2,486. Former $2,630 support is now the first boundary to clear for a recovery; the $2,730-$2,740 confirmation band and a test of $2,810 come afterward. While the price remains below the first boundary, it is too early to treat those later targets as immediately reachable.

Red flags

  • If uncertainty in the revenue report spreads to other companies’ orders or ability to pay, the selloff could broaden. Announcing a customer’s investment and collecting payment as a supplier are different stages; growth expectations need to be assessed with that distinction in mind.
  • If oil-driven cost increases persist, consumer spending and corporate profits could come under pressure together. One day of buying in bonds does not remove the potential pressure from energy prices.

Calendar

  • Today at 17:00 TRT, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey is due. Consumers’ price and income expectations matter when assessing how expensive oil could affect spending.
  • At 19:45 TRT, the New York Fed will update its growth nowcast. This is an estimate based on available data, rather than a realized growth figure.
  • The next major inflation release is U.S. consumer prices on October 14 at 15:30 TRT. I also want to see that release before drawing the same conclusion from today’s revenue debate and interest rate expectations.

My analysis

Wider adoption of AI does not mean infrastructure investment will deliver the same return at every price and under every financing condition. If revenue expectations weaken while the investment schedule proceeds at the same pace, a company may need more outside funding. Expensive borrowing makes that gap harder to close. What is new to me in today’s selloff is that investors are questioning when technology demand will turn into cash, alongside the demand itself. I assess the conditions for a good product and a good investment separately.

I will assess recovery first through the customer’s revenue and ability to pay, then through the supplier’s conversion of orders into earnings. If the chip fund regains its lost boundary alongside that improvement, I can have greater confidence that the selloff was temporary. If oil stays high, borrowing becomes more expensive and revenue expectations are revised down, strong long-term demand alone may not be enough to defend current prices. That is why I want to see the initial rebound alongside an improvement in companies’ financing position.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.