Alphabet's results showed that demand for artificial intelligence is not slowing: company revenue rose 24%, Google Cloud revenue grew 82%, and the cloud backlog reached $514 billion. But Alphabet also spent $44.92 billion on investment during the quarter, raised its full-year capital-spending forecast to $195-$205 billion and reported negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion.

The market is no longer asking only whether AI is growing. It is also measuring how much cash that growth produces. At the same time, Brent crude reached $94.07 and the official US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.67%. AI demand is strong, but the bill facing both companies and investors is getting heavier.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to close at 7,498.96, while the Nasdaq lost 0.6% to 25,690.90. QQQ ($QQQ) declined to $705.35; it remained inside the $700-$705 support area, but once again failed to clear $712.
  • Alphabet ($GOOGL) closed the regular session at $342.09 and fell to about $330.76 in extended trading after its results and higher investment-spending forecast. Google Cloud's 82% growth confirmed demand; the share-price response showed that the market is now pricing cash flow as closely as growth.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) rose 2.3% to $212.06 and SMH, the semiconductor-company ETF ($SMH), gained 0.5% to $586.91. By contrast, DRAM, the memory-company ETF ($DRAM), fell 1.8% and Micron ($MU) lost 1.2%. The chip rebound survived for a second day, but memory shares did not retain the same strength.
  • Brent crude rose 3.4% to close at $94.07 and traded above $95 intraday. US Treasury data put the 10-year yield at 4.67% and the 30-year yield at 5.15%. With oil and interest rates rising together, technology shares have less room for error.
  • GLD, the gold ETF ($GLD), closed at $379.12 and SLV, the silver ETF ($SLV), at $53.92. Bitcoin was around $65,550 on Thursday morning, Ethereum at $1,919 and XRP at $1.14. Precious metals are strengthening and crypto is holding above important thresholds, but a fresh wave of risk appetite has not yet spread to the Nasdaq.
  • The BIST 100 rose 1.18% to close at 14,138.85; USD/TRY was around 47.22 on Thursday morning. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announces its rate decision today. The index reclaimed 14,000, but the move cannot be considered durable before the statement and the currency response are known.

What happened?

  • According to Associated Press data, the S&P 500 lost 10.24 points, the Nasdaq 146.30 points and the Russell 2000 27.46 points. The Dow fell by only 6 points. The indices looked calm, but there was a clear divergence among technology, small-company and defence shares.
  • Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said company revenue grew 24% year over year and Google Cloud revenue rose 82%. The cloud backlog reached $514 billion, and Alphabet said capacity constraints were limiting its ability to meet AI demand. That evidence does not support the view that demand for AI infrastructure is weakening.
  • Alphabet nevertheless raised its full-year capital-spending forecast from $180-$190 billion to $195-$205 billion. Reuters reported that free cash flow turned negative for the first time, with a $5.9 billion shortfall. Demand is strong, but the data centres, servers and energy infrastructure needed to serve that demand are weighing on cash generation.
  • Before the results, Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) said he was watching Google's earnings more closely than Tesla's as a test of AI. The main questions were whether investment spending would keep rising and whether that spending would convert into revenue. The results answered yes to both, but revenue growth has not yet fully offset the pressure on cash flow.
  • Bora's short-term risk framework had three parts: oil and war, high leverage, and money rotating from the fastest-rising AI shares into other sectors. Wednesday's prices supported that distinction. Nvidia rose while Micron and DRAM fell; the S&P 500 stayed near its record as small companies declined 0.9%.
  • Bloomberg Television's (@BloombergTV) The Close stressed that investors are no longer looking only for high revenue growth. They also want margins and proof that investment is producing a return. Alphabet faced exactly that test: Google Cloud growth beat expectations, but higher investment spending pressured the share price.
  • CNBC's Mad Money also highlighted strong Google Cloud growth alongside the negative free cash flow that caught investors' attention. This does not mean the AI story is over. It means investors have added “how much cash is left?” to the question “how much was spent?”
  • Tesla ($TSLA) revenue rose 26% to $28.24 billion, but adjusted earnings per share missed expectations. Research and development spending increased about 49%, and the shares fell roughly 4.1% in extended trading. As spending on robotaxis, AI infrastructure and humanoid robots grows, the market is questioning how quickly those investments will turn into profit.
  • Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) showed that not all large technology shares moved in the same direction despite Nvidia's gain. IGV, the software-company ETF ($IGV), fell 3.1% to $89.02. AI spending remains strong, but money is still not flowing evenly across technology.
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in an interview published by Yahoo Finance that better and more accessible open AI models would increase usage, and that more usage would create demand for more computers, data centres and services. It is a counterargument to the assumption that lower-cost Chinese models must reduce demand for hardware.
  • Technical analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) believes crypto moved first, gold and silver followed, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 may be next. Prices partly support the first two links in that chain: GLD and SLV rose, and Bitcoin remains above $64,000 support. But QQQ is still below $712, so the Nasdaq leg has not been confirmed.
  • Tunç said the probability of a bottom would improve if the rebound in SMH and DRAM lasted for two days despite pressure in South Korea. SMH finished higher for a second day, but DRAM fell from $58.85 to $57.77. Semiconductors therefore have an initial confirmation, while memory still lacks one.
  • Borsa Istanbul diverged from weakness in global technology and reclaimed 14,000. Today's Central Bank decision is about more than the policy rate; the interest-rate corridor and forward guidance also matter. With Brent above $94, the currency and inflation effects of any easing signal are more important than usual.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $94.07. The first support is $93, with stronger support at $90-$91; $95-$96 is the first risk and resistance area. A sustained move above $96 would increase energy-driven inflation pressure, while a return below $93 would be the first sign of macro relief for technology.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.67% and the 30-year yield 5.15%. For the 10-year, 4.60% is the first support and relief threshold, 4.70% the first risk level and 4.75% the next resistance. A move above 5.20% in the 30-year would increase pressure from long-term financing costs.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,498.96. Support is 7,450, the first resistance is 7,550 and 7,600 is the stronger breakout area. The index held above support despite oil and interest rates; a fresh record move is not confirmed before it clears 7,550.
  • QQQ is at $705.35. Support is $700-$705, the first confirmation is $712 and the next resistance is $720. The ETF closed at the upper end of support. Reclaiming $712 would strengthen the case for a new Nasdaq rally; falling below $700 would break the repair of the past two days.
  • IWM, the small-company ETF ($IWM), is at $293.79. Support is $292-$294 and the first resistance is $300. Renewed weakness in small companies shows that pressure from high interest rates is still spreading through the broader market.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $586.91. Initial support is $580, with main support at $560; $590 is the first confirmation and $600 the stronger recovery level. A second positive close is constructive, but the damage from last week is not repaired before SMH clears $590.
  • DRAM is at $57.77. Support is $57-$57.70, the first resistance is $59.50-$60 and $61 is the stronger continuation threshold. The previous day's confirmation above $57.68 weakened; the ETF now needs to reclaim $59.50.
  • Micron closed the regular session at $959.48 and rose to about $983.28 in extended trading. Initial support is $950, with main support at $920-$930; resistance is $980-$1,000. Alphabet's high infrastructure spending is positive for memory demand, but the price still needs to hold above $1,000.
  • Nvidia is at $212.06. Support is $207-$210, the first resistance is $214-$215 and the next area is $220. The shares reclaimed $210 and carried semiconductors higher; a close above $215 would show that the move is broadening.
  • Alphabet closed the regular session at $342.09 and traded around $330.76 after hours. The first support is $330, while $342-$350 is the first resistance and reclaim area. Below $330, concern about investment spending would be increasing; above $342, the market would be refocusing on cloud growth.
  • Tesla closed the regular session at $374.01 and traded around $358.55 after hours. Support is $355-$360 and $375 is the first resistance and reclaim level. With concerns about profit and investment spending continuing despite revenue growth, the earnings response is not repaired before Tesla clears $375.
  • IGV is at $89.02. The first support is $88-$89, the first reclaim level is $92 and strong resistance is $94-$95. Software falling below $90 while chips recover shows that the AI theme is still being priced through a narrow part of the market.
  • AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) is at $61.95. Support is $59-$60, while $64 is the technical confirmation and first resistance. The $64 threshold watched by Tunç was not cleared again, so the move has not yet strengthened.

Crypto and precious metals

  • GLD is at $379.12. Support is $374-$375, the first resistance is $382 and the next area is $385. Gold continues to repair its short-term downtrend; a move above $382 would strengthen the recovery.
  • SLV is at $53.92. Support is $53 and the first resistance is $55. Tunç is watching a move above roughly $61 in spot silver as stronger confirmation of continuation; the ETF also needs to clear $55 before momentum can be considered stronger.
  • Bitcoin is around $65,550. Support is $64,000, the confirmation area is $67,900-$68,000 and the first target is $71,600. Holding above the channel is constructive, but a fresh return of risk appetite requires $68,000.
  • Ethereum is around $1,919. Support is $1,890-$1,900 and the confirmation area is $1,970-$2,000. It remains above support but has not produced an upside breakout.
  • XRP is around $1.14. The $1.13 level is both pivot and support, with first resistance at $1.16. Holding $1.13 keeps the structure intact; there is no strong continuation before XRP clears $1.16.

Türkiye

  • The BIST 100 is at 14,138.85. Initial support is 14,000, with lower support at 13,900; the first resistance is 14,200 and the stronger area is 14,300-14,450. A close above 14,200 after the Central Bank decision would strengthen the move, while a return below 14,000 would weaken Wednesday's gain.
  • USD/TRY is around 47.22. Support is 47.00 and resistance is 47.35-47.50. A move above 47.50 after the Central Bank statement would show that pressure from oil and the currency is outweighing the rate decision.

Red flags

  • If Brent settles above $95-$96 while the US 10-year yield clears 4.70%, the positive demand signal from AI earnings may be overwhelmed by a higher discount rate and higher energy costs.
  • If QQQ loses $700, SMH loses $560 and DRAM loses $57 at the same time, the chip rebound of the past two days will look more like short-term position covering than the start of a new advance.
  • If Alphabet's free cash flow remains negative in coming quarters while Google Cloud growth slows, the market may begin to treat AI investment as a financing burden rather than a growth engine.
  • If Micron, DRAM and IGV remain weak while Nvidia holds above $210, the AI rally will become too dependent on a single leading stock.
  • High leverage and sector rotation can produce selling even on days with strong earnings. That is exactly the risk Bora highlighted: short-term prices can move sharply even when the long-term story remains intact.
  • If Bitcoin loses $64,000, Ethereum loses $1,890 and XRP loses $1.13 at the same time, crypto's leading signal for risk appetite will weaken and Tunç's crypto, metals, Nasdaq sequence will be delayed.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 14,000 as USD/TRY rises above 47.50, markets will be pricing currency and oil pressure rather than stronger local risk appetite after the Central Bank decision.

Calendar

  • Thursday, July 23: rate decisions from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and the European Central Bank, plus US weekly jobless claims. For Turkey, the interest-rate corridor and September guidance matter alongside the policy rate; for the ECB, the focus is its message on energy-driven inflation.
  • Thursday, July 23 after the close: Intel earnings. Data-centre and AI demand, manufacturing investment, margins and guidance will show whether the chip rebound can spread across the sector.
  • Friday, July 24: preliminary July manufacturing and services PMIs, plus June new-home sales. The first effects of high oil prices and interest rates on the real economy will be in focus.
  • July 28-29: Federal Reserve meeting. Even if markets expect no rate change, the Fed's approach to second-round inflation risks from energy will matter as much as the decision while Brent is at $94 and the 10-year yield is at 4.67%.

My analysis

Alphabet's results did not end the AI debate. They moved it to a more useful question. Google Cloud's 82% growth, the $514 billion backlog and continuing capacity constraints show that demand is real. I therefore do not read these results as evidence that the AI bubble has burst.

But the same report does not support unlimited optimism. Quarterly investment spending of $44.92 billion, a full-year forecast of $195-$205 billion and negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion made the cost of growth visible. With capital expensive again, investors are no longer giving this spending the benefit of the doubt as easily as they did a few quarters ago.

The distinction matters. High investment spending can create short-term pressure on cash flow for an Alphabet shareholder. For Nvidia, Micron, data-centre, energy and networking companies, the same spending represents demand. Alphabet falling while Nvidia rises is therefore not a contradiction. Different parts of the AI investment chain are affected differently by the same bill.

Bora's distinction between the long term and the short term became more useful after the results. Demand for AI infrastructure can remain strong while oil, bond yields, leverage and sector rotation pressure prices in the short term. A strong fundamental story does not guarantee a strong share price every day.

The first two links in Tunç's crypto, precious-metals and Nasdaq sequence are working. Bitcoin is above support, while gold and silver are rising. But QQQ has not cleared $712, SMH $590 or DRAM the $59.50-$60 area. It is therefore still too early to say that the Nasdaq is next.

My decision tree for today:

  • Can Brent return below $93 and the US 10-year Treasury yield move back toward 4.60%?
  • Can the S&P 500 hold above 7,450 and advance toward 7,550, while QQQ approaches $712?
  • Can SMH clear $590 as DRAM returns to the $59.50-$60 area?
  • Can Alphabet hold $330 in the regular session and move toward $342, while Tesla holds $355-$360 and approaches $375?
  • Can Nvidia remain above $210 while Micron clears the $980-$1,000 area?
  • Can Bitcoin clear $67,900-$68,000, Ethereum $1,970-$2,000 and ASTS $64 to confirm broader risk appetite?
  • Can the BIST 100 stay above 14,000 and clear 14,200 after the Central Bank decision while USD/TRY remains below 47.50?

If Alphabet's high investment spending continues to create demand across the chip and data-centre chain, while Brent returns below $93 and the 10-year yield falls back to 4.60%, a new leg of the AI rally may begin. If Brent settles above $95-$96, the yield moves above 4.70% and QQQ loses $700, strong AI demand will not be enough to offset the heavier bill in the short term.

Sources

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.