Chip shares made a strong comeback on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20 and the Nasdaq gained 1.3% to 25,837.21; Micron jumped 12.2% and Nvidia added 2%. Unlike Monday's intraday rebound, this move survived into the close.

But two major pressures also intensified alongside the rally: Brent crude rose to $91.01 and the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.63%. The main question is therefore no longer simply “have chips recovered?” It is whether high oil prices and interest rates will allow an earnings-led rebound to spread across the broader market.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,509.20 and reclaimed 7,450. QQQ ($QQQ) rose 1.8% to $708.78; $700-$705 is support again and $712 is the first strong confirmation level. The price response was healthier than the day before, but the index has not yet produced a fresh breakout.
  • SMH, the semiconductor-company ETF ($SMH), closed 4.6% higher at $584.01, while DRAM, the memory-company ETF ($DRAM), gained 10.7% to $58.81. DRAM moved above the $57.68-$57.69 technical threshold highlighted by Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu); $590 remains the stronger recovery level for SMH.
  • Micron ($MU) finished about 12% higher at $969.94. Nvidia ($NVDA) rose to $207.24 and Intel ($INTC) to $105.40. The chip rally was not dependent on one stock, but it is too early to say the recent damage has been repaired until Micron clears $980-$1,000, Nvidia clears $210 and SMH clears $590.
  • Brent rose 2% to close at $91.01. Official data put the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.63% and the 30-year yield at 5.13%. Chips rising alongside oil and yields creates a market that looks strong in the short term, but remains fragile over the medium term.
  • Bitcoin was around $65,900 on Wednesday morning, Ethereum at $1,919 and XRP at $1.13. Ethereum is holding the $1,890-$1,900 area, while Bitcoin remains below its $67,900-$68,000 confirmation zone. Crypto retains a positive structure, but Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a broader return of risk appetite.
  • The BIST 100 fell 0.73% on Tuesday to close at 13,968.86; USD/TRY was around 47.22 on Wednesday morning. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announces its decision on July 23. With the index just below 14,000, direction still needs confirmation before the rate decision.

What happened?

  • According to Associated Press data, the S&P 500 gained 65.92 points, the Nasdaq 329.13 points and the Russell 2000 44.97 points. The technology rebound that faded into Monday's close therefore lasted through the end of Tuesday's session. Micron and Nvidia were the two largest positive contributors to the S&P 500.
  • Bloomberg Television's The Close reported that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 5% for its strongest day in a month. Even so, 230 S&P 500 stocks rose while 271 fell. The index rally was strong, but market breadth was less reassuring than the headline suggested.
  • Technology was by far the strongest S&P 500 sector in Yahoo Finance's (@YahooFinance) coverage, while small companies also advanced. The 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.13% at the same time matters: investors bought chips despite a high discount rate, but that does not mean interest rates have stopped mattering.
  • Chip shares rising as Brent approached $92 intraday shows that markets are, for now, pricing the energy risk from Iran separately from corporate earnings. But oil has climbed to $91 from below $72 at the start of the month. If that move persists, it will feed back into technology valuations through energy costs, inflation and bond yields.
  • On CNBC's (@CNBC) Mad Money, market commentator Jim Cramer said large semiconductor rallies can also be used to rebalance portfolios. He remained positive on Micron and Nvidia, but stressed that software was lagging and leveraged positions magnify risk during sharp technology moves.
  • The same split was visible in prices. SMH rose 4.6% and DRAM 10.7%, while IGV, the software-company ETF ($IGV), fell 1.1% to $91.89. The artificial-intelligence theme returned, but money once again concentrated in hardware and memory.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu said on Kanal Finans that $57.68-$57.69 was the technical reversal threshold for DRAM. With the ETF closing at $58.81, that call received its first price confirmation. The same area now needs to hold as support after a strong one-day move.
  • In Tunç's crypto framework, the important levels were $67,900-$68,000 for Bitcoin, $1,970-$2,000 for Ethereum and $1.13 for XRP. On Wednesday morning, XRP was at its threshold, Ethereum above its first support and Bitcoin below confirmation. The three assets are therefore not providing full confirmation at the same time.
  • Space shares also rebounded. SpaceX ($SPCX) rose 3% to $123.47 and AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) gained 10.3% to $63.34. Tunç is watching $63.84 as the stronger technical confirmation for ASTS; the stock moved above it intraday but closed a few cents below.
  • Borsa Istanbul did not join the global risk-on move. The BIST 100 fell below 14,000. Tunç thinks the central bank could signal easing through the corridor or its September guidance even if it leaves the policy rate unchanged. This is a source scenario, not a result to price as official before the decision and communication are published.

Market levels

Global risk and rates

  • Brent stands at $91.01. The first support is $89-$90, the first resistance is $93 and $95-$96 is the more dangerous risk zone. Remaining below $93 may contain the energy shock; settling above $95 would materially increase pressure on inflation and central banks.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.63% and the 30-year at 5.13%. For the 10-year, 4.60% is the first support and relief threshold, while 4.70% is the next resistance and risk zone. Either oil prices or long-term yields need to retreat for the chip rally to last.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 stands at 7,509.20. Support is back at 7,450, the first resistance is 7,550 and 7,600 is the stronger breakout zone. The index reclaimed the threshold it lost the day before; a fresh move to record highs is not confirmed until 7,550 is broken.
  • QQQ stands at $708.78. Support is at $700-$705, the first resistance at $712 and the next target zone at $720. A close above $712 would strengthen the technology rebound; a return below $700 would show that Tuesday's move was short-lived.
  • IWM, the small-company ETF ($IWM), stands at $296.45. Support is at $292-$294 and the first resistance at $300. A 1.5% rise in small companies was positive, but rate pressure across the broader market cannot be called over until $300 is broken.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH stands at $584.01. The first support is $560, the first strong resistance is $590 and $600 is the cleaner recovery zone. The ETF reclaimed $560 decisively, but much of last week's damage remains.
  • DRAM stands at $58.81. The $57.68-$58 area is now the first support and technical confirmation zone, while $60 is the first resistance. Micron stands at $969.94, with support at $920-$930 and resistance at $980-$1,000. Memory shares have delivered price confirmation; the next test is whether they can hold these levels.
  • Nvidia stands at $207.24, with support at $203-$205 and first resistance at $210. Intel stands at $105.40, with support at $100-$102 and first resistance at $106-$108. Intel's earnings on Thursday will show whether the chip rally is confined to memory companies or spreading across the sector.
  • IGV stands at $91.89. Support is at $90-$91 and resistance at $94-$95. Software falling as chips recovered sharply shows that the debate over who will generate revenue from artificial-intelligence spending is still unresolved.

Space and crypto

  • SpaceX stands at $123.47. Support is at $120-$122 and the first resistance at $129-$130. AST SpaceMobile stands at $63.34, with support at $59-$60, technical confirmation at $63.84 and the next resistance at $64.50. Both shares recovered, but ASTS closed just below its confirmation threshold.
  • Bitcoin is around $65,900. Support is at $64,000, confirmation at $67,900-$68,000 and the first target at $71,600. Ethereum is around $1,919, with support at $1,890-$1,900 and confirmation at $1,970-$2,000. XRP is around $1.13, with a pivot at $1.13 and first resistance at $1.16.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 stands at 13,968.86. The first support is 13,880-13,900, the first reclaim level is 14,000 and resistance is at 14,300-14,450. A close above 14,000 before the central-bank decision would bring short-term relief; a move below 13,880 would signal increasing pressure.
  • USD/TRY is around 47.22. Support is at 47.00 and resistance at 47.35-47.50. With oil above $90, the currency and inflation effects of any easing signal become more important than usual.

Red flags

  • If Brent rises above $93 as the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.70%, the chip rebound will struggle to spread across the broader market. Oil at $95 and the yield at 4.70% at the same time would create heavier pressure on technology valuations.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,450, QQQ loses $700 and SMH loses $560 again, Tuesday's strong move will remain a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal.
  • If DRAM falls below $57.68, Micron below $920 and Nvidia below $203, the first price confirmation from the memory and chip rally will fail.
  • If Alphabet and Tesla announce high investment spending but cannot show the corresponding revenue, margin or cash flow, markets may read artificial-intelligence investment as a financing burden rather than a growth engine.
  • If market breadth remains negative while the S&P 500 rises again, the rally will still depend on a small group of large technology shares. Risk cannot be called fully dispersed until the index gain and the number of advancing stocks strengthen together.
  • If Bitcoin loses $64,000, Ethereum loses $1,890 and XRP loses $1.13 at the same time, the early signal of returning risk appetite in crypto will weaken.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,880 as USD/TRY rises above 47.50, Turkey will be pricing oil and currency pressure ahead of the central-bank decision, rather than rate expectations.

Calendar

  • Wednesday, July 22: Alphabet and Tesla report earnings. For Alphabet, watch cloud growth, artificial-intelligence revenue and capital expenditure; for Tesla, margins, cash flow and the return on high-technology investment.
  • Thursday, July 23: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and the European Central Bank announce rate decisions, alongside US weekly jobless claims and Intel earnings after the close. Oil-driven inflation risk, growth and technology investment will be tested on the same day.
  • Friday, July 24: Preliminary July manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices and June new-home sales are released. Markets will look for the effects of high rates and oil prices on the real economy.
  • July 28-29: The Federal Reserve meets. If Brent and bond yields remain elevated, the Fed's approach to second-round energy inflation will matter as much as the decision itself.

My analysis

Tuesday's move sent a stronger message than Monday's. This time the market delivered not only an intraday rebound, but also confirmation at the close. The S&P 500 reclaimed 7,450, QQQ reclaimed $700-$705, SMH reclaimed $560 and DRAM reclaimed $57.68-$58. The first repair in price has taken place.

I still do not read this as the start of a new rally. Brent rose to $91.01 on the same day, the 10-year yield to 4.63% and the 30-year yield to 5.13%. More S&P 500 stocks also fell than rose. The headline was strong; the structure beneath it remains selective.

The positive difference in chips is that the move did not depend on Nvidia alone. Micron, DRAM, SMH, Intel and South Korean memory shares all rose together. That shows real buyers emerged after last week's sell-off. But as Cramer noted, a sharp semiconductor rally does not make every technology stock equally attractive. IGV falling on the same day confirms the distinction.

Earnings are now the next test. Alphabet needs to show cloud revenue and margins against its high artificial-intelligence spending, Tesla needs to show cash flow against its investments, and Intel needs to provide strong demand and production guidance on Thursday. If the link between spending and revenue strengthens, the chip rally can spread to the S&P 500. If that link remains weak, investors may use Tuesday's strength to take profits.

Tunç's DRAM level received price confirmation for the first time. Confirmation is still missing in crypto and ASTS: Bitcoin remains below $67,900-$68,000, Ethereum below $1,970-$2,000 and ASTS below $63.84. Today's picture should therefore be read not as “risk appetite has returned,” but as “risk appetite has begun to return in selected areas.”

My decision tree for today is:

  • Can Brent remain below $93 while the US 10-year yield falls back from 4.63%?
  • Can the S&P 500 hold above 7,450 and move toward 7,550, while QQQ advances to $712 and SMH to $590?
  • Can DRAM turn $57.68-$58 into support while Micron breaks the $980-$1,000 band?
  • Can Alphabet and Tesla support their artificial-intelligence investment with revenue, margins and cash flow?
  • Can Bitcoin clear $67,900-$68,000, Ethereum clear $1,970-$2,000 and ASTS clear $63.84 to confirm risk appetite?
  • Can the BIST 100 reclaim 14,000 before the central-bank decision while USD/TRY remains below 47.50?

If oil remains below $93, the yield falls toward 4.60% and SMH breaks above $590, Tuesday's move may be the first strong step in a new technology rally. If Brent heads toward $93 while the S&P 500 loses 7,450 and DRAM loses $57.68, the strong rebound will have faded before it could overcome the macro pressure.

Sources

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.