The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but markets did not relax. Yesterday, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, QQQ dropped 2.0% and SMH, the semiconductor ETF, lost 4.8%, while the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 5.20%. After the close, Microsoft rose on strong cloud growth, while Meta fell under the weight of heavy investment spending and weak cash generation.

U.S. growth and inflation data will be released today at 3:30 pm TRT. Apple and Amazon will report tonight. Before asking when the Fed will act, the market's new question is how much further pressure from long-term interest rates and oil will squeeze technology valuations.

Key takeaways

  • The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate in a range of 3.50%-3.75%. The decision passed by a 9-3 vote; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan favored a 25-basis-point increase. Three dissenting votes show that holding rates steady was not a comfortable consensus.
  • The Treasury yield curve split in two. According to U.S. Treasury data, the 2-year yield fell 4 basis points to 4.22%, while the 10-year yield rose 6 basis points to 4.67% and the 30-year yield climbed 11 basis points to 5.20%. The short end priced less tightening, while the long end charged a higher price for inflation and borrowing risk.
  • Selling was not confined to technology. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow Jones 2.2%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.7% and the Russell 2000 1.6%. The heaviest damage was still in semiconductors: QQQ fell 2.0% and SMH 4.8%, while IGV, the software ETF, rose 0.6%.
  • Brent crude rose 7.3% Wednesday to close at $88.09. The Associated Press reported that the price eased to about $87.18 in Thursday's Asian session, but fresh attacks between the United States and Iran continued. The shock has not intensified unless Brent clears $90-$92; a move above $95 would again become the main inflation risk.
  • Microsoft's quarterly revenue rose 18% to $90.0 billion; Azure growth reached 43%, while remaining performance obligations, the value of contracted business not yet recognized as revenue, climbed 84% to $678 billion. The shares rose about 8.9% in the latest usable trading after the July 29 close.
  • Meta's revenue rose 28% to $60.8 billion, but expenses increased 55%; operating income fell 8% and free cash flow was only $784 million. The company raised the lower end of its 2026 capital-spending range from $125 billion to $130 billion. The shares fell about 7.5% over the same period.
  • Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) said it would be safer to wait until roughly one hour after the U.S. open on July 30 rather than choose a direction on Fed day. His expectation that rates would remain unchanged was correct, but the favorable market condition did not materialize. Bitcoin remained relatively resilient near $63,947, but it still has not reclaimed the $64,400 confirmation level.

What happened?

  • The market's initial response to the Fed decision differed from the pricing at the end of the press conference. Stocks briefly recovered immediately after the decision. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide a clear interest-rate path; as the press conference continued, long-term yields rose and selling deepened into the close. Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance commentators linked this reaction to uncertainty and inflation concerns.
  • Warsh said nominal and real rates had risen across the yield curve and that the increase between the past two meetings ranked among the sharpest moves of the past 20 years. The Fed is emphasizing less forward guidance and more data and market signals. This approach gives it flexibility to correct a mispricing, but also increases near-term uncertainty.
  • Oil and long-term interest rates are applying pressure in the same direction. Brent holding near $88 keeps energy-driven inflation alive, while the 30-year yield at 5.20% raises companies' long-term financing costs. The market is now pricing not only whether artificial-intelligence investment generates revenue, but also the cost of financing it.
  • Microsoft and Meta clarified this distinction. Strong Azure growth and a large backlog showed the revenue side of Microsoft's spending. At Meta, fast revenue growth was overshadowed by rising expenses, capital spending and weak free cash flow, showing that the market is no longer looking only at the growth rate.
  • Technology is not moving as one block. SMH fell about 4.8% on a day when IGV rose, widening the split between software and semiconductor hardware. The opposite post-close moves in Microsoft and Meta carried the same selectivity to the company level. These percentages refer to trading after the July 29 close; they are not current premarket prices for July 30.
  • Şatıroğlu's suggestion to wait until roughly one hour after the open therefore matters. The U.S. data arrive at 3:30 pm TRT, and the cash market opens at 4:30 pm. A positive turn has not been confirmed before QQQ reclaims $668, SMH returns above $518-$520 and long-term yields ease.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was near $87.18 in Thursday's Asian session. Support is at $85-$86, the first resistance at $90-$92 and the main risk threshold at $95. Staying below $90 would limit the oil shock; a move above $95 would show energy inflation and geopolitical risk intensifying again.
  • In the U.S. Treasury's official July 29 data, the 10-year yield was 4.67% and the 30-year yield 5.20%. Support for the 10-year is at 4.60%-4.65%, with resistance at 4.75%; support for the 30-year is at 5.10%, with resistance at 5.25%. If the 30-year yield settles above 5.25%, long-term financing pressure will strengthen further.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15. The first support is 7,300, followed by lower support at 7,235; the first resistance is 7,350 and 7,400 is the stronger confirmation area. Holding below 7,300 would show the selloff deepening, while reclaiming 7,350 would be the first sign of balance.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which I use to track the Nasdaq 100, closed at $661.73. The first support is $660, followed by lower support at $650; the first resistance is $668-$675 and $680 is the stronger recovery threshold. A move below $660 could accelerate the technology selloff; relief will remain limited until $668 is reclaimed.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH, the semiconductor ETF ($SMH), closed at $504.22. The first support is $500, followed by lower support at $490; the first resistance is $518-$520 and the stronger confirmation area is $535-$540. Losing $500 would signal a new wave of selling, while reclaiming $520 would be the first sign of a bottom forming.
  • IGV, the software ETF ($IGV), closed at $92.37. Support is at $89-$90, the first resistance at $93 and the stronger confirmation area at $94-$95. Holding above $90 would preserve software's relative strength; lasting technology leadership cannot be established before $95 is cleared.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin was near $63,947. Support is at $63,000, followed by lower support at $62,000; the first resistance is $64,400 and the stronger confirmation level is $65,800. Relative resilience will not become a strong upside signal before $64,400 is reclaimed.
  • Ethereum was near $1,901. Support is at $1,880-$1,855, the first resistance at $1,970 and the stronger confirmation level at $2,000. Holding above $1,880 would preserve the structure; the recovery will remain limited until $1,970 is cleared.
  • XRP was near $1.071. Support is at $1.065 and $1.05, the first resistance at $1.08 and the stronger confirmation level at $1.13. A move above $1.08 would be positive, but a standalone move carries greater risk until Bitcoin reclaims $64,400.
  • GLD, the gold ETF ($GLD), rose 0.5% to close at $371.08. Support is at $368 and $365, the first resistance at $372 and the stronger confirmation area at $375.50. A move above $372 would show resilience despite pressure from long-term yields; a move below $365 would weaken the structure.
  • SLV, the silver ETF ($SLV), closed at $51.77. Support is at $51.20-$51.50, followed by lower support at $50; the first resistance is $52.50 and the stronger confirmation level is $53.30. A move below $51.20 would deepen the decline; a move above $52.50 would be the first sign of recovery.

Red flags

  • If the U.S. 30-year yield rises above 5.25% while Brent also clears $95, energy inflation and long-term financing pressure will intensify at the same time.
  • If the S&P 500, QQQ and SMH fall below 7,300, $660 and $500 together, the view that selling is confined to semiconductors will no longer hold.
  • If U.S. growth and inflation data are stronger than expected and the 10-year yield rises above 4.75%, the Fed's decision to wait will be offset by tighter market interest rates.
  • If IGV falls below $90 and Microsoft's post-close gain also fails to hold, software's relative resilience may prove temporary.
  • If attacks between the United States and Iran broaden and Brent holds in the $90-$92 area, positive earnings surprises will face a higher discount rate.

Calendar

  • July 30, 10:00 am TRT: TurkStat will release the July economic confidence index.
  • July 30, 3:30 pm TRT: The U.S. second-quarter growth estimate, June personal income and spending figures, and the personal consumption expenditures price index will be released. Strong growth and inflation at the same time would be the most difficult combination for long-term yields.
  • July 30, after the U.S. close: Apple and Amazon will report results. Both companies' conference calls begin at midnight TRT on July 31; device, services, cloud and data-center spending will be watched.
  • July 31: The Bank of Japan will publish its decision and July outlook report; no official time has been announced. The U.S. second-quarter employment cost index will be released at 3:30 pm TRT the same day.

My analysis

This close is not a simple "the Fed kept rates unchanged" story. The 2-year yield fell while the 30-year yield rose, showing that the market expects less tightening in the near term but worries that the cost of inflation and borrowing may persist. Oil's renewed rise reinforced that concern.

The divergence between Microsoft and Meta shows the new standard for artificial-intelligence investment: heavy spending is rewarded only when it comes with strong revenue and cash generation. Apple and Amazon will face the same test tonight.

There is still no reliable reversal signal. A cleaner positive scenario requires Brent to remain below $90, the 30-year yield to ease toward 5.10%, the S&P 500 to hold above 7,350, QQQ above $668 and SMH above $520. If those thresholds are not reclaimed after the data and the U.S. open, waiting is more consistent than chasing the first reaction.

Sources

This material is for research and monitoring purposes only and is not investment advice.