U.S. President Donald Trump said he would halt new attacks on Iran and that the outlines of an agreement including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz had taken shape. But Iran has not yet responded; this is not an agreement, but a new possibility that markets will price on Monday.

Brent closed at $87.93 on Friday and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75%. If traffic through Hormuz genuinely increases and Brent falls below $85, energy-driven inflation pressure will ease; otherwise, the weekend optimism may be short-lived.

Monday's direction will come from three indicators: Brent, the 10-year yield and the breadth of the technology rally. An unverified report that the Fed could reduce the frequency of its meetings is also keeping bond volatility in focus.

Key takeaways

  • Trump's statement withdrew Friday's new attack threat, but Iran's participation, increased ship traffic through Hormuz and a halt to attacks have not been confirmed. The first positive sign will be shipping traffic and Brent falling, not words.
  • Brent was at $87.93, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75% and the 30-year yield at 5.27%. If Brent breaks $90-$92 and the 10-year yield breaks 4.85%, pressure from oil and long-term financing will grow at the same time again.
  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72 just below 7,500 resistance. QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, rose to $687.89, but IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, remained at $291.18 and the semiconductor ETF SMH at $540.52; the rise is still narrow.
  • Bitcoin was around $63,450 over the weekend. Until $64,400 is reclaimed, Ethereum clears $1,880 and XRP holds above $1.09, the crypto market cannot be said to be pricing a completed Hormuz agreement.

What happened?

  • According to an Associated Press report on August 2, U.S. President Donald Trump said regional allies had agreed on the outlines of a deal to end the Iran war and that he would halt new U.S. attacks. Full reopening of Hormuz is part of the goal, but because Iran has not responded, this is a statement, not a signed or implemented agreement.
  • The same report said a tanker had been hit and that Kuwait had responded to Iranian drone attacks. These events show that suspending a new attack order is not the same as removing the risk to maritime and energy infrastructure on the ground.
  • Bloomberg This Weekend, citing The New York Times, reported that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had raised the idea of reducing the frequency of meetings. The Fed's official 2026 and 2027 calendars still show eight meetings a year; no change is an official decision. Longer gaps between decisions could create expectations of larger rate moves after data surprises and higher bond volatility.
  • Technical analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) expects a recovery in U.S. stocks, crypto and precious metals in August; he also said a weekend Iranian attack could bring a Monday sell-off. The latest news changed that short-term assumption, but the seasonal view will gain market confirmation only if QQQ clears $690, SMH $550 and Bitcoin $64,400.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent closed at $87.93 on Friday. Support is $83-$85, initial resistance $90-$92 and $95 is the main inflation-risk threshold. A return below $85 alongside confirmed tanker traffic would ease energy pressure; a move above $92 or new tanker attacks would break the relief scenario.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.75% and the 30-year yield 5.27%. The first relief level for the 10-year is 4.65% and the risk threshold 4.85%; the 30-year has support at 5.20% and resistance at 5.30%. A 10-year yield above 4.85% would increase pressure on technology valuations even if oil falls.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72. Initial support is 7,450, initial resistance 7,500 and the stronger continuation threshold 7,550. If the index clears 7,500 while small companies lag, the rise will again rest on a few large companies.
  • The QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $687.89. Support is $680, initial resistance $690 and the stronger continuation threshold $700. A close above $690 would strengthen the recovery; below $680 would weaken Friday's rise.

Themes and ETFs

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH closed at $540.52 and IWM, the small-U.S.-company ETF, at $291.18. SMH has support at $535 and resistance at $550; IWM has support at $290 and initial resistance at $295. It is too early to call the rise broadening beyond technology until IWM clears $295.
  • The software-company ETF IGV closed at $94.59. Support is $93, initial resistance $95 and the stronger continuation area $100. A move above $95 would show software companies joining the technology rally more strongly; below $93 would be a renewed sign of weakness.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin was around $63,450. Support is $62,000, the first recovery level $64,400 and the stronger confirmation level $65,800. The weekend rise should not be considered a lasting change in direction until Bitcoin reclaims $64,400.
  • Ethereum was around $1,878 and XRP around $1.083. Ethereum has support at $1,850, initial recovery at $1,880 and resistance at $1,970; XRP has support at $1.05, initial resistance at $1.09 and the stronger confirmation level at $1.13. Ethereum is near its first threshold, while XRP has not yet cleared $1.09.
  • The gold ETF GLD closed at $371.47 and the silver ETF SLV at $52.37. GLD has support at $370 and initial resistance at $375.50; SLV has support at $52 and initial resistance at $53.30. Recovery in both metals may remain limited until long-term yields fall.

Red flags

  • If Iran does not confirm the agreement's terms, Hormuz crossings do not increase or a new tanker attack occurs, the agreement should not be considered implemented; Brent above $92 would price this risk.
  • If the meeting-frequency report becomes an official decision while the 10-year yield rises above 4.85% and the 30-year above 5.30%, a less frequent decision calendar would combine with higher long-term financing costs.
  • If QQQ falls below $680, SMH below $535 and IWM below $290 together, it would confirm that Friday's rise did not broaden and remained concentrated in a few large technology companies.

Calendar

  • August 3, 5:00 p.m. TRT: The U.S. July ISM manufacturing index will be released. New orders and input prices will show growth and inflation pressure together.
  • August 4, 5:00 p.m. TRT: U.S. June job openings will be released. The focus will be whether labor demand is cooling despite high financing costs.
  • After the U.S. close on August 4, at midnight TRT on August 5: Chipmaker AMD will report second-quarter results. The question is whether SMH can clear $550 on the company results.
  • August 5: ADP will publish its July private-sector employment report. The U.S. July ISM services index will follow at 5:00 p.m. TRT the same day; employment and price components will be read together.
  • August 6, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Preliminary U.S. second-quarter productivity and unit-labor-cost data will be released. The effect of wage pressure on company margins and Treasury yields will be monitored.
  • August 7, 3:30 p.m. TRT: The U.S. July employment report will be released. Employment, unemployment and wage growth may not move in the same direction; the 10-year yield's reaction will matter as much as the result.

My analysis

The weekend headline should separate a suspended attack order from an implemented agreement. Real relief for oil requires three confirmations at the same time: increased tanker traffic, Brent returning below $85 and the 10-year yield moving toward 4.65%. If only one occurs, the market may settle for short-lived optimism.

The second test for stocks is breadth. If QQQ clears $690, SMH $550 and IWM $295 together, geopolitical relief will spread to growth stocks and small companies. If Brent returns above $92 or IWM loses $290, energy pressure and a narrow rise will again become the main story. Until the Fed meeting report becomes an official decision, the long-term yield is a more reliable indicator than the rumor.

Sources

Not investment advice; this is a research and monitoring note.