Gold failed to shelter investors during Monday's sell-off. Rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on precious metals and stocks alike. Nvidia, by contrast, ended the day higher after announcing a buyback authorization. Today's question is what could start a recovery in assets that have become cheaper.

Expensive oil is keeping inflation concerns alive. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.24% on Monday from 5.17% on Friday. As interest-bearing assets become more attractive, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises; markets may also assign a lower value today to the money companies are expected to earn in the future. This week's jobs and inflation data will help show whether that pressure is easing.

Key takeaways

  • A sharp fall, by itself, is not a reason to buy. When looking for a recovery in gold, I need to watch the level the price reclaims alongside the direction of Treasury yields.
  • Nvidia has more capital it could allocate to its own shares, but one company's cash generation does not provide the same protection across the technology sector. Company selection and index direction can produce different results.
  • Fund investigations and liquidity measures in Türkiye add uncertainty to the global sell-off. The authorities' statements and investors' ability to access their money need to be assessed separately.

What happened?

  • Oil and diplomacy: According to Reuters, oil rose after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal, then gave back some of its gains on Monday as expectations grew for talks mediated by Qatar. Brent futures still settled up 0.9% at $105.28. The prospect of talks does not mean shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal; energy costs need lasting relief from an actual improvement in supply.
  • Nvidia ($NVDA) increased its share-repurchase authorization by $150 billion on September 28, taking the total amount available to $235 billion. The company expects to carry out the program through fiscal 2028. This is an authorization, not a completed purchase. The stock rose 1.7% on Monday to close at $228.86. A buyback can support earnings per share by reducing the number of shares in circulation; it does not automatically increase operating profit.
  • Gold's technical picture: Financial analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) again highlighted the risk of gold falling toward $4,000 an ounce. For a recovery, he is watching for gold to first move above $4,250; for silver, he considers a daily close above $63 important. His downside scenario for silver is $56. These are conditional technical views; reaching the stated levels may not start a reversal.
  • In Türkiye, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on September 28 that the legal process was continuing and that measures for the market's liquidity needs would continue. The stated aim is to protect fund investors' rights and prevent the impact from spreading into the real economy. Whether the measures are sufficient will become clearer as the payment and liquidation process unfolds.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday, we were watching whether Friday's recovery could withstand high interest rates. On Monday, U.S. technology and chip stocks fell, while losses in gold and silver were larger. Nvidia's rise remained a company-specific story that diverged from the broad sell-off.

Market levels

U.S. equities

  • The S&P 500 closed down 0.8% at 7,683.69. The gap to my 7,650 support level has narrowed, while Tunç Şatıroğlu's earlier resistance level of 7,780 remains overhead. Losing support would raise the risk of a deeper sell-off.
  • The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ ($QQQ) ended the day at $736.53. Monday's low of $731.63 is nearby support, while the session high of $741.42 can be watched as first resistance. A move below the first threshold would signal fresh weakness; reclaiming the upper boundary would mark progress toward a recovery.
  • The semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) fell to $600.01. It did not reach the previous resistance level of $609, and Monday's low of $591.92 stands out as nearby support. If that area is lost, the previous $587 risk limit will matter again.

Precious metals and Bitcoin

  • The gold ETF GLD ($GLD) fell 3.9% to close at $377.91. Closing near the $376.88 low suggests that no strong recovery followed the sell-off. $376.88 is short-term support and $381.52 first resistance; these are ETF prices and are not on the same scale as thresholds for gold per ounce.
  • The silver ETF SLV ($SLV) fell 5.5% to $54.95. A move below the $54.87 support level could extend the decline; moving above the $55.84 resistance area would recover part of Monday's loss. Silver's sharper fall than gold also shows the limits of treating precious metals as a single risk group.
  • Bitcoin is around $83,234 this morning. It remains above the previous $82,700 support area, but is some distance from the $85,100-$85,200 resistance area. The upside scenario needs a clear move above that zone and follow-through.

Türkiye

  • The BIST 100 finished Monday down 2.38% at 12,592.76. In the technical framework reported by Anadolu Agency, 12,500 and 12,400 are support, while 12,700 and 12,800 are resistance. Fund-related developments mean that local market moves should not be attributed solely to U.S. equities.

Red flags

  • Diplomatic headlines can move oil sharply in either direction. Confusing the one-day relief caused by an announcement with a lasting improvement in shipping and insurance costs could lead to underestimating companies' expenses.
  • Bond prices fall when yields rise. When losses in bonds are added to same-day declines in gold and stocks, holding different assets together may not provide the same degree of protection in every sell-off.

Calendar

  • September 29, 5:00 p.m. TRT: U.S. job openings for August, from JOLTS. The focus is how strong labor demand remains.
  • September 30, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for August and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP. Inflation trends and the strength of growth will be assessed together.
  • October 2, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. employment report for September. Jobs and wages could change rate expectations again.

My analysis

Before considering how much an asset has fallen, I look at why it became cheaper. In a sell-off driven by still-expensive energy and higher Treasury yields, good news at a company may support its own share price. Nvidia's cash generation and the financing of a company that is growing through borrowing do not face the same conditions. Keeping that distinction in view is more useful than expecting all technology stocks to react alike.

I would need to see rate pressure ease first, followed by gains spreading beyond a few large companies, before becoming more positive on a recovery. If the data show that inflation is slowing and oil also falls, those two conditions could reinforce each other. By contrast, if strong employment comes with sticky inflation, lower prices may continue to struggle to attract new buyers.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.