Oil rose again to start the new week. Expectations for talks with Iran remain, but there is no agreement yet. Brent's return above $105 puts energy costs back in front of U.S. stocks, which ended Friday higher. This week's question is whether that rise can hold alongside expensive oil and high interest rates.

Wednesday's PCE inflation report and Friday's employment report matter for that reason. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 5.17% on Friday. Technology companies may still have strong growth prospects, but **financing costs have not eased**. At today's U.S. open, I will watch which sectors join the advance as well as the direction of prices.

Key takeaways

  • Brent was at $105.64 on Monday morning, 1.27% above the previous settlement; a lasting reduction in energy costs is not yet in sight.
  • The U.S.-China statement covers recommendations for more favorable tariff treatment for $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction. **It is not an enacted, across-the-board tariff cut.**
  • For AI investment, demand is only part of the picture. Borrowing costs, permits and the time it takes for a project to generate revenue matter too.

What happened?

  • Iran talks: Reuters reported that, after rejecting Iran's proposal on Saturday, Trump said on Sunday that he expected talks this week. Diplomacy is continuing, but no outcome that would ease energy supply has been announced. Brent's renewed rise keeps uncertainty over companies' transport and production costs in view. A lasting agreement and an actual improvement in supply could ease that pressure.
  • U.S.-China trade: The White House statement on September 25 reported agreement on recommendations for reciprocal tariff treatment covering some agricultural, wood and consumer goods. The subject remained in the news over the weekend, but this was not a new Monday decision. Implementation details will determine which companies gain a cost advantage. The statement does not mean that all restrictions on advanced-technology exports have been removed.
  • Financing AI: On Sunday's Bloomberg broadcast, Maureen Farrell said permitting delays for data-center projects and rising interest rates were weighing on investor appetite. Her comments do not mean all projects have stopped. They do underline the gap between announcing a large investment and completing a facility that generates cash, a gap investors need to consider in valuations. Delays can be more costly for a company growing with borrowed money.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Bitcoin fell from about $84,460 on Sunday morning to $83,436 on Monday. The decline between these two observations was about 1.2%; it is not a 24-hour return calculation. With U.S. stock markets closed, crypto weakness is an early signal about risk appetite, but it does not determine the direction of the stock-market open on its own.

Market levels

U.S. indexes and chips

  • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41. The 7,780 resistance in Tunç Şatıroğlu's (@tuncsatiroglu) earlier assessment remains overhead. A break above that area would strengthen his 7,900 scenario; losing my earlier 7,650 support reference would weaken the picture. These are levels I am still watching, not new targets.
  • The Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ closed Friday at $744.50. I see Friday's low of $739.64 as a first possible support and its $745.92 high as possible resistance. Holding above the upper boundary would support continued buying; losing the lower one would weaken Friday's recovery. This range comes from Friday's prices, not a new analyst forecast.
  • The semiconductor ETF $SMH closed at $606.56. Although it reached $609.66 intraday, the close remained below the earlier $609 resistance that Şatıroğlu identified. An intraday move above it is not a confirmed breakout. Holding above $609 today could support chip leadership; losing the $602.22 support area marked by Friday's low would call the short-term momentum into question.

Oil, gold and crypto

  • Brent was at $105.64 at 3:36 a.m. TRT on Monday. I am watching Friday's $104.32 settlement as a first possible support and Thursday's $106.60 settlement as possible resistance. A move back below $104.32 would show that the morning increase had been given back. I also use $100 as a psychological comparison point; a fall to that level is not a confirmed scenario. Further gains would increase cost risks for inflation and company earnings.
  • The gold ETF $GLD closed Friday at $393.41. I am watching the $390.05 support at Friday's low and resistance at the $394.22 high: a move above the upper end could extend the recovery, while losing the lower one could broaden the decline. High Treasury yields raise gold's opportunity cost, while geopolitical demand can work in the other direction. The ETF price is not on the same scale as an ounce of gold.
  • Bitcoin at $83,436 is closer to the $82,700 support Şatıroğlu identified earlier. The $85,100 to $85,200 resistance range remains above; the condition for a strong move through it has not been met. Holding support leaves the wait-and-see scenario open. A break below it would call for reassessing risk before looking for upside confirmation. Crypto's continuous trading hours set this price apart from Friday's stock closes.

Red flags

  • If oil rises while Treasury yields rise too, companies may face pressure from both operating expenses and financing costs. Businesses with little room to raise prices are more exposed.
  • A handful of strong chip stocks can carry an index without showing that every technology company is doing well. We need to see how broadly gains spread at the open and whether they hold through the close.

Calendar

  • Monday, September 28, 4:30 p.m.: U.S. stock-market open.
  • Tuesday, September 29, 5:00 p.m.: U.S. JOLTS job openings for August.
  • Wednesday, September 30, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. PCE inflation, personal income and outlays for August, and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP.
  • Friday, October 2, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. employment report for September. All times are in Turkey time.

My analysis

For me, this week's key question is **whether companies' growth prospects can absorb rising costs**. Higher oil prices do not have the same effect on every stock. An energy producer and an energy-intensive business have different earnings profiles. In technology, I also distinguish a company with strong orders from one that must keep borrowing to fund investment. The Treasury yield's response after Wednesday's data will help show how the market is pricing that difference.

I see value in the idea, highlighted in Bora Özkent's (@boraozkent) new video, of turning regular saving into capital and building systems that work. Daily news should not displace a long-term plan, and a plan should not ignore changing costs. Rather than chase the first move at the open, I will watch whether the levels I track hold and what supports earnings expectations. If oil falls, rate pressure eases and gains broaden across more sectors, I will have greater confidence in the outlook for stocks.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.