Iran's Supreme National Security Council made reopening the Strait of Hormuz conditional on the United States changing its position, lifting the blockade and taking steps on sanctions. The UAE also said an ADNOC-owned vessel had been hit by an Iranian missile. Low vessel traffic through Hormuz keeps the risk of another increase in oil and transportation costs alive.

Brent closed Friday at $83.47, while gold ETF GLD ($GLD) finished at $398.47. A move in oil above $85 in the new week could revive inflation concerns; Wednesday's U.S. consumer inflation report could limit gold's advance after it benefited from falling Treasury yields.

The main focus, therefore, is not another agreement headline but whether physical transit increases. Without concrete relief in Hormuz, $85 remains Brent's main risk threshold, while the $395-$400 area in GLD stands out as the decision range for gold.

Key takeaways

  • Brent is at $83.47 below its $85 risk threshold, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.64%, below its main resistance at 4.70%. If both levels are cleared, energy and interest-rate pressure will rise at the same time. A move in Brent below $82 would be the first factor to provide relief.
  • Spot gold is about $4,343. Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) is watching $4,200 as a critical level and about $4,456 as resistance in spot gold, and expects next week to be seasonally weaker.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, finished Friday at $722.89, semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) at $582.92 and SpaceX ($SPCX) at $133.11, all with strong gains. Bitcoin, meanwhile, was compressed below $65,800 resistance at about $64,732.

What happened?

  • According to Associated Press's August 8 report, Iran's Supreme National Security Council tied reopening Hormuz to changes in U.S. behavior, an end to the blockade, the lifting of sanctions and compensation. Talks between Iran and Oman on the route and fee structure are continuing; whether formal talks between the United States and Iran are taking place has not been disclosed.
  • The UAE said an ADNOC-owned vessel had been hit by an Iranian missile and that there were no casualties. A separate UKMTO notice said a projectile had struck a vessel east of Khasab, the fire had been extinguished and the crew was safe; it is unclear whether the two records refer to the same incident.
  • The U.S. Senate passed a new sanctions bill targeting Russia and Iran on August 7 by 86 votes to 11. The bill would allow additional tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian energy and sanctions on Russian financial, energy and shadow-fleet entities; the House of Representatives has not yet approved it.
  • In a new Kanal Finans video, Şatıroğlu said that if no Hormuz agreement emerges, Brent could rise again and create a short-term pullback in gold. This is an analyst scenario; the market has not confirmed it while Brent remains below $85.
  • SPCX rose from $114.915 to $133.11 on Friday and reached $133.44 during the day. Şatıroğlu's new technical resistance is $134.88; because the daily close remained below that level, the breakout is not yet complete.

Market levels

Global risk and rates

  • Brent closed Friday at $83.47. Support is at $83 and $82, while $85 is resistance and the main risk threshold. If the $83-$82 area fails to hold, the latest advance will weaken; a price below $82 would be the first sign of relief in physical transit or diplomacy.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield finished Friday at 4.64%. Support is at 4.60%, with 4.70% the critical threshold and 4.85% the main risk boundary. If core inflation is strong and the yield clears 4.70%, the discount-rate advantage for growth stocks will narrow; below 4.60% would ease that pressure.

Precious metals

  • GLD closed at $398.47. Support is at $395 and $390, with resistance at $400 and $405. A close above $400 would bring the second resistance level into view; losing $395 would open room toward the lower support. Spot gold is about $4,343; Şatıroğlu's $4,200 level should also be watched, but readers should note that the two instruments are not direct price equivalents.
  • SLV closed Friday at $57.51; support is at $56.75 and $56.10, with resistance at $58 and $60. Clearing $58 would widen the room for the move; below $56.75 would weaken participation across the metals group.

US indices and space

  • QQQ closed at $722.89; $717 is support, while $725 is resistance and the continuation threshold. Holding above $725 would open new room for the technology advance, while below $717 would mean Friday's gain had been given back.
  • SMH closed at $582.92 and software-company ETF IGV at $102.68. Support and resistance are $575 and $585 for SMH, while $101 is support and $103.70 the first resistance for IGV. Şatıroğlu updated his longer-term main support for SMH to about $548 and his target area for IGV to $108.
  • SPCX is at $133.11. Support is at $124 and $115, with resistance at $134.88. Clearing resistance on a daily close could open new price territory; a failure to do so would create room for profit-taking after the rapid advance.
  • NASA ETF closed at $25.54, Rocket Lab at $82.85, AST SpaceMobile at $71.91 and Intuitive Machines at $16.40. Their main supports are $23.80, $74, $63.94 and $14.77, respectively; the same levels should also be treated as risk boundaries. Closes below them would make the split within the sector more pronounced.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin is about $64,732, Ethereum $1,913 and XRP $1.037. Direction remains unclear until Bitcoin's compression between $64,400 support and $65,800 resistance is resolved; Ethereum has support at $1,890 and resistance at $1,925, while XRP has support at $1.00 and recovery resistance at $1.04-$1.05.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 closed Friday at 13,779.39. Support is at 13,700 and 13,600, with resistance at 13,956 and 14,000. The intraday high cannot be considered a lasting breakout until the index clears 14,000.
  • The indicative dollar/TL price is 47.7436; support is at 47.70 and 47.59, while 48.00 is resistance and the risk threshold. A move above 48.00, especially if Brent also clears $85, would raise currency and energy costs in the same direction for Turkish companies.

Red flags

  • If vessel traffic through Hormuz does not increase while Brent and the U.S. 10-year yield clear $85 and 4.70% together, Friday's rate relief will give way to energy-driven inflation pressure.
  • If GLD falls below $395 as the 10-year yield rises to 4.70%, geopolitical demand is not enough to carry gold; losing $390 would deepen the technical deterioration.
  • If QQQ, SMH and IGV lose support at $717, $575 and $101 together, participation across technology will narrow. If SPCX falls below $124 at the same time, the rapid move in space stocks will also be fading.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,600 while dollar/TL and Brent clear 48.00 and $85, equity, currency and energy risk will rise at the same time in Turkey.

Calendar

  • August 12, 15:30 TRT: U.S. July consumer inflation and real earnings will be released. The market will watch whether oil-driven cost pressure passes through to interest-rate expectations.
  • August 13, 15:30 TRT: U.S. July producer inflation will be released. The effect of energy, transportation and other input costs on company margins will be measured.

My analysis

On Friday, the market priced weak employment as lower interest-rate pressure. Tighter conditions in Hormuz on Saturday are working in the opposite direction: if oil rises, inflation expectations and therefore interest-rate pressure could strengthen again. In the new week, growth concerns are confronting energy inflation.

Gold is not a one-way safe-haven trade in this setting. Geopolitical risk may support initial demand, but the inflation and Treasury yields lifted by Brent could limit GLD's advance. That makes holding $395 and clearing $400 on a close more important than distant targets.

Technology and space stocks finished Friday strongly. If QQQ clears $725, SMH $585 and SPCX $134.88, technology and space stocks will be preserving their strength despite the news flow; if those thresholds remain out of reach while Brent moves toward $85, the advance will become less durable.

The Senate sanctions bill adds a second layer of uncertainty for energy trade, but it is not yet an active tariff without House approval. The market first needs to see whether the bill becomes law, then follow physical flows and the price response; it is important not to price a political headline as a realized cost.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.