Iran and Oman's framework for shipping traffic through Hormuz remains at the announcement stage. Iran has made reopening conditional on the lifting of the U.S. blockade and sanctions, the withdrawal of American forces, the release of frozen assets and compensation. Therefore, a route agreement does not mean physical flows have returned to normal.

Brent rose 0.68% to $84.12 this morning. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield's decline to 4.64% on Friday had supported technology shares, but oil moving above $85 could turn rate relief into inflation pressure.

Three steps should be watched in the new week: formal announcement of the agreement, actual removal of the U.S. blockade and an increase in vessel traffic. Until that chain is complete, looking only at diplomacy headlines could lead investors to conclude too early that the energy risk is over and lose money.

Key takeaways

  • Brent is approaching the main $85 risk threshold at $84.12. Even if the agreement is announced, oil-driven inflation risk cannot be considered over until the blockade is lifted and vessel traffic increases.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.64%. Support is at 4.60% and the directional threshold at 4.70%; Brent and the yield rising together would reduce the support that weak employment gave growth shares.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $722.89, semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) at $582.92 and gold ETF GLD ($GLD) at $398.47. Their first continuation thresholds are $725, $585 and $400, respectively.
  • Bitcoin ($BTC) is about $65,023, below resistance at $65,800. The compression continues while support at $64,400 holds; clearing resistance would provide a new recovery signal for crypto.

What happened?

  • Associated Press (@AP) reported on August 9 that Iran and Oman had made progress on new maritime routes. Iran said this framework would not reopen the strait by itself and listed the lifting of the U.S. blockade and sanctions, the withdrawal of American forces, the release of frozen assets and compensation for war damage as conditions.
  • Axios reported that an agreement regulating vessel traffic was being negotiated among Iran, Oman and the United States, but its announcement had been awaited for several days. Bloomberg HT's Reuters feed also said the United States would lift the blockade after the agreement is announced. The blockade therefore has not been lifted; it is expected to be removed after the agreement is announced.
  • Bloomberg This Weekend stressed that even after an agreement is announced, physical oil flows may not immediately return to normal because of security, mine clearance, insurance and the time required for vessels to return to the route. This is an assessment from the programme; normalisation can be confirmed only by actual vessel traffic.
  • After weak U.S. employment data on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.64% while the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64. The market's next test is whether Wednesday's consumer inflation report preserves that rate relief.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $84.12. Support is at $83 and $82, while $85 is resistance and the main risk threshold. Holding above $85 would show Hormuz uncertainty spreading back into energy costs; below $82 would be the first price move indicating a lower risk premium.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.64%. Support is at 4.60%, 4.70% is the critical reversal threshold and 4.85% the main risk boundary. If the yield rises above 4.70%, growth shares will lose some valuation support; below 4.60% would strengthen it.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 set a record at 7,757.64 on Friday. The first holding area is 7,750, main support is 7,700, and 7,800 is resistance and the continuation threshold. If the index holds 7,750 and clears 7,800, the record move will broaden; below 7,700 would reduce the likelihood of another record.
  • QQQ closed at $722.89. Support is at $717, resistance and the continuation threshold at $725, and the main risk line at $708.50. Holding above $725 would preserve technology leadership; below $717 would put Friday's gain at risk.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $582.92 and software-company ETF IGV at $102.68. SMH has support at $575 and resistance at $585; IGV has support at $101 and resistance at $103.70. Both funds clearing their thresholds together would show that the advance is not resting on only a few large technology shares.
  • SpaceX ($SPCX) ended Friday at $133.11. Resistance carried over from the previous source is $134.88, with support at $124 and $115. A daily close above $134.88 would open continuation room; below $124 would suggest the rapid advance was beginning to unwind.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Spot gold fell to $4,334.14 this morning, while GLD finished Friday at $398.47. GLD has support at $395 and $390, with resistance at $400 and $405. On a close above $400, safe-haven demand would outweigh rate pressure; losing $395 would open room toward $390.
  • Spot gold and GLD use different price scales. Their support and resistance figures should not be converted into one another; decisions should be made by watching GLD's $395-$400 range together with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.
  • Bitcoin is about $65,023. Support is at $64,400 and $62,000, with resistance at $65,800. A move above $65,800 could start a new recovery leg; below $64,400 would bring the risk of $62,000 back into view.
  • Ethereum is about $1,916 and XRP $1.029. Ethereum has support at $1,890 and resistance at $1,925; XRP has support at $1.00 and a resistance area at $1.04-$1.05. Both assets clearing their thresholds would indicate that Bitcoin's move is spreading across the market.

Turkey

  • The latest indication for the BIST 100 is 13,779.39. Support is at 13,700 and 13,600, with resistance at 13,956 and 14,000. Until the 13,956-14,000 area is cleared, the upward move cannot be considered a lasting breakout; below 13,600 would break the local recovery.
  • Dollar/TL is about 47.7163. Support is at 47.70 and 47.59, while 48.00 is resistance and the main risk threshold. Pressure remains limited below 48.00; clearing that level together with Brent at $85 would raise companies' currency and energy costs in the same direction.

Red flags

  • If Brent and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield clear $85 and 4.70% together, the market will not be able to price weak employment as rate relief; energy inflation will take precedence.
  • If QQQ and SMH fall below $717 and $575 at the same time, technology participation will narrow. IGV losing $101 would show that the weakness is spreading into software as well.
  • If GLD falls below $395 while the 10-year yield rises to 4.70%, geopolitical demand is not enough to carry gold. Losing $390 would deepen the technical deterioration.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,600 while dollar/TL and Brent clear 48.00 and $85, equity, currency and energy risk will rise at the same time in Turkey.

Calendar

  • August 12, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July consumer inflation and real earnings will be released. The balance between weak employment and high energy costs will be tested.
  • August 13, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July producer inflation will be released. The pass-through of oil, transportation and other input costs to company margins will be watched.

My analysis

On Friday, the market interpreted weak employment as lower Treasury yields and higher technology valuations. Brent's move above $84 is limiting that rate support. If consumer inflation softens, the relief can be preserved; if it is strong, oil and long-term yields will apply pressure in the same direction.

The difference between a headline and an outcome is especially important for Hormuz. Announcing a route document does not mean the U.S. blockade has been lifted or vessels are passing at a normal rate. The market should follow three stages: formal announcement, implementation and physical flow.

Bloomberg The Asia Trade's discussion of memory supply highlights the balance between semiconductor producers' pricing power and the higher component costs faced by customers. Before company news arrives, SMH clearing $585 and IGV $103.70 would be a more reliable market signal for technology demand.

If Brent and dollar/TL rise in the same direction in Turkey, imported energy costs and currency pressure will combine. For the BIST 100, it is therefore necessary to watch not only resistance at 14,000 but also support at 13,600, Brent at $85 and dollar/TL at 48.00 together.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.