Wall Street did not move in one direction ahead of CPI. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.6% and QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, 0.35%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.3% and semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) gained 0.63%. The headline indexes fell, but the market split beneath the surface.

Brent ended Tuesday 1.4% higher at $88.91; it is around $89.46 this morning. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.69%, but not enough to ease inflation pressure. The U.S. CPI release at 3:30 p.m. TRT will determine how the tension between oil and rates feeds into growth stocks.

Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) recommends waiting for direction to be confirmed the next day rather than chasing trades before high-impact data or during the initial reaction. Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) argues that a favorable inflation report could support the advance, but a broader move would require sustained semiconductor participation. Both views share the same point: wait for price to show the direction rather than trusting the first headline.

Key takeaways

  • U.S. July CPI will be released today at 3:30 p.m. TRT. Rather than the initial move, it will be more meaningful if the 10-year Treasury yield, QQQ and SMH confirm the same direction toward the close.
  • QQQ fell to $718.30 while SMH rose to $573.06; software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) slipped to $103.96. There is no single direction even within technology.
  • The Russell 2000 rose 0.3% while the S&P 500 fell to 7,728.20 and the Nasdaq Composite to 26,445.45. Small caps' resilience separates Tuesday's move from a broad risk-off shift.
  • Brent at $89.46 is close to the $90 stress threshold. A strong inflation report could let oil and long-term yields apply pressure together; softer data would bring a recovery toward $725 in QQQ and $108 in IGV back into view.

What happened?

  • Associated Press (@AP) reported that at Tuesday's close, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite were down 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Russell 2000 rose 0.3%. In the same session, Brent climbed to $88.91 and the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.72% to 4.69%.
  • Semiconductors and small caps rose while big technology and software fell. Nvidia closed nearly flat at $217.45; SMH gained 0.63%, while IGV lost 1.01% and SpaceX fell 3.83%.
  • According to AP, Yemeni officials said six people were killed in a Houthi attack on a ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The U.S. military also fired on a vessel in the Gulf of Oman that it said was trying to break the blockade on Iranian ports. The two events show that energy and shipping risk cannot be reduced to a Hormuz agreement alone.
  • Iran said Hormuz would remain closed until its conditions were met, while the U.S. energy secretary argued that roughly 9 million barrels of oil per day were passing through the strait. Conflicting claims about flows accompanied Brent's move above $90 and below $87 on Tuesday.

Market levels

Global risk and data

  • Brent is around $89.46. Support is at $87, with near resistance at $90, the risk line at $95 and the main regime threshold at $100. Holding above $90 would increase energy pressure; below $87 would indicate that Tuesday's risk premium was beginning to unwind.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended Tuesday at 4.69%. Support is at 4.65%, with first resistance and the directional threshold at 4.70%, and the main risk boundary at 4.85%. Above 4.70% after CPI would pressure growth stocks; below 4.65% would ease valuation pressure.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,728.20. Support is at 7,700, with first resistance at 7,750 and the main continuation threshold at 7,800. Reclaiming 7,750 would preserve the record area; below 7,700 would broaden the correction.
  • QQQ is at $718.30. Support is at $717 and $708.50, with resistance at $725. There is room for a post-data recovery while $717 holds; technology leadership will not have returned until $725 is cleared.

Sectors and themes

  • SMH rose to $573.06. Support is at $560, with first resistance at $575 and strong confirmation at $585. Reclaiming $575 would strengthen chip participation; below $560 would bring sector pressure back to the fore.
  • IGV fell to $103.96. Support is at $103.70 and $101, with resistance at $108. Holding above $103.70 would keep the software pullback limited; below $101 would show that the recent recovery had broken down.
  • Nvidia closed at $217.45 and SpaceX at $133.38. Nvidia has support at $213 and resistance at $224-$225; SpaceX has support at $130 and $124, with resistance at $134.88. Nvidia reclaiming $224 and SpaceX reclaiming $134.88 would signal recovery in two separate growth themes.

Precious metals

  • Spot gold is at $4,401.53 this morning, while gold ETF GLD ($GLD) closed Tuesday at $400.92. GLD has support at $400 and $395, with resistance at $405. In Tunç Şatıroğlu's spot-gold framework, support is around $4,300 and the confirmation threshold is $4,440; the two price scales should not be converted into each other.
  • Silver ETF SLV fell to $58.56. Support is at $58, with first resistance at $60 and strong confirmation at $62. Holding $58 would sustain the consolidation; above $60 would broaden metals participation.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin ($BTC) is around $63,756. Support is at $62,000, with first resistance at $64,400 and strong confirmation at $65,800. The short-term structure will not have recovered until $64,400 is reclaimed; below $62,000 would increase the risk.
  • Ethereum is around $1,888 and XRP $1.021. Ethereum has support at $1,850 and resistance at $1,890-$1,925; XRP has support at $1.00 and resistance at $1.04-$1.05. Both clearing their resistance areas would strengthen participation beyond Bitcoin.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 ended Tuesday 0.78% lower at 13,704.52. Support is at 13,700 and 13,600, with first resistance at 13,779 and the main resistance area at 13,911-14,000. Below 13,700 would weaken local momentum; reclaiming 13,779 would be the first repair.
  • Dollar/TL is around 47.7553. Support is at 47.70 and 47.59, while 48.00 is resistance and the main risk threshold. A simultaneous break above 48.00 and $90 Brent would increase imported energy-cost pressure.

Red flags

  • If Brent and the 10-year Treasury yield remain above $90 and 4.70%, respectively, after CPI, energy costs and the discount rate will rise at the same time.
  • If QQQ falls below $717 and SMH below $560 while IGV loses $101, Tuesday's divergence will end and the selloff will spread across technology.
  • If Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP fall below $62,000, $1,850 and $1.00 together, the crypto compression will resolve to the downside.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,600 while dollar/TL and Brent clear 48.00 and $90, local equity, currency and energy pressure will increase at the same time.

Calendar

  • August 12, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July consumer inflation and real earnings will be released. The market will first test the inflation trend, then long-term yields and technology participation.
  • August 13, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July producer inflation will be released. The pass-through of energy and transportation costs to company margins will be watched.

My analysis

Tuesday's main message was internal rotation rather than the decline in the indexes. The rise in the Russell 2000 and SMH shows that capital did not leave the market entirely; it was redistributed within big technology and software.

If CPI is soft, the first positive chain would be the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 4.65%, QQQ testing $725 and IGV testing $108. A strong report, however, would keep the yield above 4.70% and combine with Brent at $90 to pressure long-duration growth stocks in particular.

Tunç Şatıroğlu's warning not to chase the initial reaction is useful in this environment. When the data is released, indexes, yields and the dollar can all change direction at once; the next day's close provides more reliable confirmation than the move in the first few minutes.

In Turkey, BIST 100 support at 13,700, the 48.00 dollar/TL threshold and Brent resistance at $90 are parts of the same risk chain. Lasting relief in local equities requires not only a higher index, but also the currency and oil remaining below their thresholds.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.