Nvidia Gains, Rally Faces a Test
Nvidia's strong results and $108.0 billion outlook lifted after-hours trading, but high PCE inflation and the lack of cash-session confirmation keep the rally under test.
Topic guide · Turkey
Turkey, Inflation, Currency Shocks and Economic Behavior
Inflation and currency shocks do more than change a price index or an exchange rate. They alter balance sheets, planning horizons, spending decisions, working capital, investment and the credibility of future commitments. This path combines Turkey's historical record with the behavior and market channels needed to read the next phase.
Framework
A four-part transmission framework
- 01
Shock
Identify whether the impulse begins with external financing, domestic demand, supply, policy or expectations.
- 02
Balance sheets
Track foreign-currency exposure, bank resilience, working capital and the distribution of real-income losses.
- 03
Behavior
Observe how households and companies change pricing, inventories, spending, hiring and investment horizons.
- 04
Durability
Judge corrections through reserves, financing quality, inflation expectations, productivity and the credibility of the policy path.
Consumer Spending Weakens, Treasury Yield Rises
U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July and consumer sentiment weakened, yet the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68% and Brent to $88.52. Markets priced growth concern and inflation pressure at the same time.
Record Highs, No Relief
Wall Street set new records as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65% and Brent to $87.11. The 30-year auction and sector divergence show why relief remains selective.
CPI Eases, Treasury Yield Holds Firm
U.S. CPI supported the equity rally, but the 10-year Treasury yield remained high. The chip-software split, producer prices and the 30-year auction are the rally's next tests.
Markets Split Ahead of CPI
Headline indexes fell ahead of CPI while small caps and semiconductors rose. Oil, long-term yields and the split within technology set up the report's first test.