Wall Street set another round of records. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,798.99, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 26,803.03. U.S. producer prices were unchanged from the previous month, and Brent ended the day down 2.1%. The two developments reduced pressure on equity valuations, but relief was not distributed evenly across markets.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65%, but the 30-year auction stopped at a 5.216% yield. The tension between near-term inflation relief and long-term borrowing costs therefore remained. Beneath the record headline, selection is becoming more important: as more optimism is priced in, strong results are increasingly not enough.

Key takeaways

  • U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July from the previous month and rose 4.7% from a year earlier. The measure excluding food, energy and trade services increased 0.4% monthly, pointing to a clear conclusion: the headline eased, but underlying pressure did not disappear.
  • The U.S. Treasury's $25 billion 30-year bond auction stopped at a 5.216% yield with a bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, of 2.39. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65% on the same day, making the gap across maturities worth watching; high financing costs are keeping equity selection important.
  • Applied Materials ($AMAT) reported record fiscal third-quarter revenue of $9.115 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $3.50 per share. The company forecast $10.25 billion in revenue for the next quarter. The numbers are strong, but today's regular-session reaction will test how much of the high expectations is already priced in.

What happened?

  • The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,798.99; the Dow Jones rose 0.1% and the Russell 2000 gained 0.2%. QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, advanced 1.17%, while IWM, which tracks smaller U.S. companies, lagged with a 0.25% gain. The market continued higher, but participation was not as strong as it was in large technology stocks.
  • The sector split was more pronounced. Semiconductor ETF SMH rose 0.73%, software-company ETF IGV gained 3.09% and Nvidia advanced 0.56%. Cisco's 8.4% decline was a reminder that AI spending does not carry every company in the same direction.
  • Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) stresses that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, but the quality of financing is decisive for companies with large capital needs. The distinction matters: no matter how bright the revenue outlook, high debt and cash needs can amplify rate pressure at the company level. The AI story is not only about growth, but also a test of financing quality.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) maintains his positive market view for August while making further gains in equities and precious metals conditional on key levels being cleared. In this framework, direction depends on holding the support levels and breaking the resistance levels in the "Market levels" section.
  • In Turkey, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey raised its year-end 2026 inflation forecast from 26% to 28%, while keeping its interim targets for 2026, 2027 and 2028 at 24%, 15% and 9%, respectively. July inflation exceeding the previous forecast, along with higher food and administered-price assumptions, were among the main reasons for the revision.
  • The BIST 100 ended Thursday up 0.16% at 14,132.23. USD/TRY was 47.8821 as of 8:28 a.m., spot gold was $4,318.84 as of 8:29 a.m. and Brent was $87.11. These are morning observations and may change during the day.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent at $87.11: support at $87, first resistance at $90 and the risk threshold at $95. A break below $87 would reduce energy-driven inflation pressure further; a move above $90 would limit the relief.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65%: support and the directional pivot at 4.65%, first resistance at 4.70% and the main risk threshold at 4.85%. A move above 4.70% would narrow the valuation room for technology stocks; a break below 4.65% would broaden the relief.

US indices

  • S&P 500 at 7,798.99: support at 7,750, first resistance at 7,800 and the next threshold at 7,850. A close above 7,800 is needed to extend the record; a break below 7,750 would reduce the move's strength.
  • Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ at $732.11: support at $725, first resistance at $734.09 and the next threshold at $740. Leadership can continue if $725 holds; without a move above $734.09, further momentum remains limited.
  • Small-cap U.S. ETF IWM at $303.48: support at $302, resistance at $305.04 and the lower risk boundary at $299. A move above $305.04 would broaden market participation; a break below $299 would deepen the weakness.

Themes and ETFs

  • Semiconductor ETF SMH at $589.06: support at $585, a resistance zone at $597.86-$600 and lower support at $575. A move through $600 would strengthen sector momentum; a break below $575 would increase the pressure.
  • Software ETF IGV at $106.30: support at $103.70, first resistance at $106.58 and a second threshold at $108. Holding above $103.70 would preserve the recovery; a move through $108 would give it more room.
  • Nvidia at $225.36: a support zone at $224-$225, resistance at $227.20 and lower support at $213. A move above $227.20 would open room for continuation; a break below $213 would materially weaken the setup.
  • Rocket Lab at $80.07: support referenced by Tunç Şatıroğlu at roughly $76.74, resistance at $84.17 and a risk boundary around $74. Holding $76.74 would bring $84.17 back into view; a break below $74 would invalidate the setup.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin at roughly $63,261: support at $62,000 and a resistance zone at $64,400-$65,800. Holding above $62,000 would limit losses; the recovery is not complete until $64,400 is reclaimed.
  • Ethereum at roughly $1,881: support at $1,850 and resistance at $1,925. XRP at roughly $1.008: support at $1.00 and a resistance zone at $1.04-$1.05. Both assets are close to support; momentum is not confirmed until resistance is cleared.
  • Spot gold at $4,318.84 and the gold ETF at $398.94: ETF support at $395-$398, with resistance at $400 and $405. The spot and ETF scales must be kept separate; without reclaiming $400, the rebound remains limited.
  • Silver ETF at $58.17: support at $58, with resistance at $60 and $62. A break below $58 would weaken the metals theme; a move above $60 is the first condition for a recovery.

Turkey

  • BIST 100 at 14,132.23: support at 14,000 and 13,911, with a resistance zone at 14,133-14,200. The index is just below resistance; a move through 14,200 would strengthen the breakout, while a break below 13,911 would increase the risk of a failed breakout.
  • USD/TRY at 47.8821: a support zone at 47.70-47.82, with resistance and the risk threshold at 48.00. Remaining below 48.00 preserves the short-term balance; a move above the threshold would increase currency and inflation pressure.

Red flags

  • Today's U.S. retail sales report carries two-sided risk. Very strong demand could lift Treasury yields again, while marked weakness could turn inflation relief into concern about growth.
  • The 5.216% yield at the 30-year auction shows that the daily decline in the 10-year yield does not by itself mean lasting financing relief. Companies' long-term cost of capital remains high.
  • AI investment is supporting revenue growth, but debt-financed capacity expansion leaves companies with weak cash flow more vulnerable. A record index does not remove the importance of company selection.
  • The USS George Washington's move toward the Middle East and the continuing U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz show that the geopolitical risk premium has not disappeared despite Brent's decline. There is no verified timetable for when the operation will end.

Calendar

  • 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July advance retail sales. The strength of consumption could reset the balance between the Treasury yield and equity valuations after PPI.

My analysis

The rationale for Thursday's rally was clear: headline producer inflation did not accelerate, oil fell and technology companies regained leadership. But continuing the record run requires a new balance in the data. Consumption needs to remain firm enough to support growth, but measured enough to avoid a jump in the Treasury yield.

In the positive scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.70%, Brent stays below $90, and software and semiconductor stocks hold their own support levels. In the negative scenario, strong retail sales push the yield higher or weak data increase concern about demand. In either case, the record index alone does not provide enough information.

Today's dividing question is not whether AI spending will grow, but which companies can turn that growth into earnings and cash. Applied Materials' results confirm the strength of demand. The 30-year Treasury auction is a reminder that financing that demand is still expensive. The central picture, therefore, is not a loss of risk appetite, but relief that remains selective.

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.

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