Nvidia's second-quarter revenue rose to $96.2 billion and its third-quarter outlook to $108.0 billion; the stock rose about 4.1% in after-hours trading.

However, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation remained at 3.7% year over year and core PCE at 3.3% while U.S. indexes ended August 26 slightly lower. The question today is not whether Nvidia is strong, but whether that strength will translate into $SMH, the chip ETF, $QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, and broader market participation during the cash session.

Key takeaways

  • NVIDIA's second fiscal-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion (+106% year over year), Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion (+117% year over year), and the third-quarter outlook was $108.0 billion plus or minus 2%; China Data Center compute revenue is not yet assumed in that outlook.
  • The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year; core PCE rose to 3.3% year over year and real PCE was flat month over month at 0.0%.
  • Nvidia closed the regular session at $209.66 and last traded around $219.53 after hours.
  • The latest confirmed BIST 100 level was 14,473.42; Bitcoin was about $78,772, Ethereum $2,488 and XRP $1.404, signaling separate risk appetite.

What happened?

  • NVIDIA's official release shows AI infrastructure momentum concentrated in Data Center revenue and a strong forward outlook for the third quarter; leaving the China-market assumption out requires the geographic scope of growth to be monitored separately.
  • AP's market report shows Nvidia's regular-session and after-hours reactions moving in opposite directions. The split shows that the initial response was strong, but durable market confirmation has not yet appeared.
  • BEA's July data showed current spending continuing to rise while real PCE stayed flat and annual price pressure remained high. That does not create a comfortable backdrop for rate-sensitive technology valuations.
  • Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) is watching Jensen Huang's forward message more than the headline Nvidia result, along with whether AI demand is spreading beyond a few large customers. This is a useful framework for reading the difference between a result and market breadth.
  • Iran and Oman are discussing a possible arrangement to manage vessel traffic in Hormuz, but AP's August 27 report did not confirm an agreement. Oil and logistics relief therefore remain conditional for now.

Market levels

Global risk and rates

  • Brent's latest confirmed August 26 observation was about $86.50. The $90 support and pressure line and the $95 resistance threshold for sharper energy and inflation risk remain in view; until a Hormuz arrangement is confirmed, these levels mark the boundary between relief and risk.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.66% at the official August 26 par yield. Support was 4.65%, the decision threshold 4.70% and the resistance and risk limit 4.85%; sustained trading below 4.70% would give higher valuations room.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.18%, between the 5.00% support area and the 5.35% resistance and risk threshold; above 5.35%, long-term financing pressure would build again.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 finished August 26 at 7,675.70 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,130.20. For the S&P 500, 7,750 is support and the first reclaim, 7,800 the pivot and 7,850 resistance.
  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $711.37 and last traded around $719.77 after hours. Support and reclaim are at $725, resistance is $734.56 and the next threshold is $740; the overnight move is not broad confirmation until $725 is reclaimed during the cash session.
  • IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, stayed at $298.93. The $302-$303 support and reclaim zone, $305 pivot and $310 resistance show that participation beyond large technology has not strengthened yet.

Technology and themes

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH finished August 26 at $555.77 and last traded around $570.02 after hours. Reclaim and confirmation are at $585, with $600 as the next resistance; below $585, the rebound after Nvidia remains narrow.
  • The software-company ETF IGV closed at $102.39. Support and reclaim are at $103.70, resistance is $106.30 and the risk area is $101; software's lack of participation shows that the AI theme has not spread across the market.
  • Nvidia rose from a regular-session close of $209.66 to about $219.53 after hours. Without SMH reclaiming its $585 support and confirmation line, a one-day jump does not prove that the forward outlook has become customer demand.
  • Meta closed at $576.14. Support and reclaim are at $580 and resistance is $590; a settlement of up to $18 billion in the youth-safety case and product changes require the company's cost and regulatory risks to be watched together.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin's last trade was about $78,772 and its intraday bar close was $78,666, keeping it above the $76,500 support and risk line. The watch area is $72,000 and the upper threshold is about $83,000; this framework does not replace equity breadth.
  • Ethereum's last trade was about $2,488 and its intraday bar close $2,484, keeping it above the $2,370 support and risk line. XRP last traded around $1.404 and its intraday bar close was $1.399, near the $1.40 support and risk line; its resistance, and Ethereum's, should be monitored separately.
  • The gold ETF GLD closed at $421.32 and the silver ETF SLV at $61.59. Support is $400 for GLD and $58 for SLV; metal resilience alone is not market confirmation before a technology confirmation line appears.

Turkey

  • The latest confirmed BIST 100 level for August 26 at 10:15 a.m. TRT was 14,473.42, with USD/TRY at 48.1175. A two-hour hold below the 14,300 support and risk line, and a move above the 14,600 resistance and continuation threshold, are the key local tests; sustained USD/TRY above 48.50 would increase local currency pressure.

Red flags

  • If Nvidia's after-hours rise does not hold during the cash session and SMH cannot reclaim $585, the strong earnings result will not confirm broad-based technology strength.
  • If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returns above 4.70% and Brent rises above $90, the two together would create renewed valuation and inflation pressure. Brent above $95 would make the energy channel materially harsher.
  • If QQQ cannot reclaim $725, IWM $302-$303 or IGV $103.70, Nvidia's isolated strength could hide narrow market participation.
  • If the possible Hormuz arrangement is not confirmed and vessel traffic does not normalize in practice, easing oil prices cannot be read as durable supply relief.
  • If Jackson Hole communication pushes Treasury yields higher or the cost and regulatory impact of the Meta settlement expands, the technology rally could reprice the tension between a strong company result and comfortable valuations.

Calendar

  • August 27, 4:30 p.m. TRT: The U.S. cash market opens; the planned 11:00 p.m. TRT close will provide the first real test of Nvidia's after-hours reaction.
  • August 27-29: The Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; policy communication could move Treasury yields and technology valuations again.
  • August 28, 5:00 p.m. TRT: The BLS will publish the preliminary annual Current Employment Statistics benchmark revision for March 2026. This is not a monthly jobs report, but a revision that realigns the employment base.

My analysis

Nvidia's numbers and its $108.0 billion forward outlook show that AI demand has not faded. But the stock fell 1.6% in the regular session and rose about 4.1% after hours, showing that markets now price not only good earnings but how broadly those earnings will translate into participation the next day. QQQ and SMH's after-hours levels showed an optimistic first response, but cash-session confirmation is not yet there.

On the macro side, PCE inflation at 3.7% year over year, core PCE at 3.3% and real PCE at 0.0% month over month deliver two messages at once: nominal spending continues, but inflation pressure has not been resolved. Unless the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stays below 4.70%, the tension between Nvidia's strong result and technology valuations will remain active.

My watch order is $725 for QQQ, $585 for SMH, $302-$303 for IWM, 7,750 for the S&P 500 and 4.70% for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Until these thresholds work together, I do not read resilience in crypto or precious metals as broad-based risk appetite; in Turkey, the BIST 100 also needs a continuation signal above 14,600.

Sources

  • NVIDIA Newsroom, FY27 second-quarter results: nvidianews.nvidia.com
  • BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026: bea.gov
  • AP, August 26 U.S. index closes: apnews.com
  • AP, Nvidia regular-session and after-hours reaction: apnews.com
  • AP, August 27 Hormuz and Iran-Oman talks: apnews.com
  • AP, Meta youth-safety settlement: apnews.com
  • U.S. Treasury, August 26 daily par yield curve: home.treasury.gov
  • Anadolu Agency, August 26 BIST, USD/TRY and Brent: aa.com.tr
  • Kansas City Fed, August 27-29 Jackson Hole: kansascityfed.org
  • BLS, August 28 benchmark revision schedule: bls.gov
  • Market data, August 26-27 U.S. ETFs/stocks and crypto observations: alpaca.markets
  • Bora Özkent, Nvidia Piyasaları Yakacak mı?: youtu.be
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu, PCE Sonrası Piyasalarda Keyifsiz Bir Gün: youtu.be
  • CNBC Television, Mad Money 08/26/26 | Audio Only: youtu.be
  • Bloomberg Television, Meta Settles Landmark Teen Social Media Case: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance, Nvidia beat on every line. Its only bear says that's the problem.: youtu.be
  • Yahoo Finance Live, Daily Market Coverage - August 26, 2026: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.