Interest in Meta's ($META) artificial intelligence app Muse lifted the company's stock more than 11% on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record, while chip and software stocks joined the buying. The new question is how much of these gains can hold after the rise. Interest in the app is a strong start, but turning user growth into profit is a separate test.

Falling bond yields helped technology stocks. By contrast, Brent crude is back above $100 this morning and shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues. At today's open, I will watch whether buying spreads beyond a few large companies and whether the rebound in oil pulls yields higher again.

Key takeaways

  • Meta's rise showed that expectations for artificial intelligence are affecting more than chipmakers. Wider adoption of a product used by consumers can also bring buying into a stock. To judge whether this lasts, we need to see downloads turn into regular use, and use into sustainable revenue.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.01% on Friday to 4.96% on Monday. The five-basis-point decline supported valuations, but the move is too small to conclude that borrowing costs have eased substantially. Companies with high capital spending still need financing.
  • Bitcoin is around $85,000 and Ethereum around $2,725 this morning after joining the rise in U.S. stocks. Small pullbacks can be normal after a rapid rise; what matters is where buyers return when selling arrives.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press (@AP), the S&P 500 finished Monday up 1.5% at 7,764.70, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 27,122.09, up 2.3%. The Dow Jones's 0.7% rise and the 0.5% gain in the Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, show that buying was present beyond technology, though the strength was not the same.
  • Meta rose 11.34% to close at $741.25. CNBC's closing broadcast said Muse ranked first in Apple's free app rankings. The product Meta introduced on September 8 can perform tasks on behalf of the user. This is not a new earnings announcement; it is interest in an existing product being reflected in the share price.
  • In AFP's report this morning, Brent was at $101.04 and U.S. crude at $96.19. Oil, which fell about 4% on Monday, rose again. According to a statement from the British maritime security unit UKMTO reported by the AP, an object struck a tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, lightly injuring two people, and the vessel continued on its route. The statement does not identify who was responsible for the incident.
  • In a Bloomberg broadcast, Long Beach Port CEO Noel Hacegaba said importers were bringing shipments forward to manage uncertainty. Strong port traffic therefore may not always show an equal increase in final demand. When assessing trade talks, we need to distinguish between larger orders and earlier delivery dates.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday we were waiting to see whether the diplomatic optimism at the U.S. open would be confirmed; now there is a strong close. The chip fund finished above $580 and the software fund above $106. Bitcoin also rose from about $81,659 at yesterday morning's cutoff to $85,165 today. These update the earlier conditions; they do not mean the move will continue without interruption.

Market levels

Holding on to technology gains

  • QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $741.47. I am watching Monday's high of $743.22 as a nearby resistance candidate. Below, the opening area around $728 is the first support candidate; a return there would give back a substantial part of the day's gain.
  • The chip-company ETF SMH rose 4.02% to $596.03. If the reclaimed $580 area works as support, confidence in the rise increases. If Monday's $598.62 resistance candidate is cleared, I will watch for buying to continue; a move back below $580 would weaken the earlier confirmation.
  • The software-company ETF IGV closed at $107.13. The former resistance at $106 is now a support candidate. Software's recovery can continue above this area; if it stays below, the gap between software and chips may open again.

Limits to a crypto pullback

  • Bitcoin is around $85,165. Market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) pointed to the $85,000 and $84,600 areas as support in a possible correction in today's assessment. These are support candidates only; I am looking for the pullback to stop around them and the two-hour view to strengthen again. A move below them would suggest that the expected recovery is delayed. The source's more distant $96,000-$100,000 resistance area would come into focus only if the rise continues.
  • XRP is around $1.50, below the $1.55 resistance watched by Şatıroğlu. The source's $1.68-$1.70 scenario depends on that resistance being cleared and Bitcoin continuing higher while holding its supports. If XRP cannot hold above $1.55, I would not treat that upper area as a target close to being reached.

Red flags

  • Not every stock is rising at the same pace while the indexes set records. Concentrated profit-taking in a few large companies can pull technology-heavy indexes lower even if smaller companies continue to rise.
  • A renewed rise in oil prices can reduce the support that falling yields have given share prices. Continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz are positive, but a single day's price move does not show that shipping and insurance risks have disappeared.
  • As interest in artificial intelligence grows, the computing cost of providing the service also matters. The IMF managing director said in a Bloomberg broadcast that high expectations and debt could magnify the impact of a disappointment. The warning concerns how losses could grow if expectations are not met.

Calendar

  • September 22, 4:30 p.m.: U.S. stock markets open. I will watch how much of Monday's gains hold and how buying is distributed across sectors.
  • September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping visits the White House. According to the official schedule, he arrives in the United States on September 23, while the White House visit is on Thursday. Whether statements on trade and technology become actions will matter.
  • September 25, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. August durable-goods orders. Equipment demand will provide information about how resilient company investment is to high rates. All times are Turkey time.

My analysis

What interests me in today's rise is that artificial-intelligence expectations have reached a product used by consumers. This development may make it easier to see what need expensive infrastructure investment is meant to serve. Even so, there is a gap between an app being downloaded and the company generating more cash. Meta's reported usage frequency, conversion to paid services and service costs will be more important in assessing how much optimism the stock price already contains.

Before worrying about missing a stock that rises quickly at the open, I care whether yesterday's buyers stay present during pullbacks. Holding around $580 in chips and $106 in software provides two useful checks here. If calm rates and buying across a broader group of stocks accompany those levels, I will have more confidence that the rise can continue. If technology gives back its gains while oil and yields rise together, I will think that excitement about the product has not yet overcome cost pressure.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.