The Nasdaq closed at a record on Monday, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also rose. To judge how durable the buying is, company growth and borrowing costs need to be considered together.

High interest rates can reduce the present value of future earnings. Strong sales and profit expectations can nevertheless help some companies advance despite that pressure, so rising stocks and rising Treasury yields on the same day need not be a contradiction.

Key takeaways

  • A record does not mean financing has become cheaper. A company that funds its growth from its own cash and one that needs to borrow regularly can be affected very differently by the same increase in rates. That distinction matters as much as the sector label.
  • I am looking beyond another peak to assess whether buying in technology can continue. Holding intraday gains and drawing in other sectors would provide a firmer picture than an index lifted by a few large stocks.
  • Market commentator Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) sees relief in Treasury yields as important for a sustained rally. I do not treat that view as a fixed market rule: if earnings expectations strengthen, high yields and rising share prices can coexist for a while.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% on Monday to close at a record 27,477.31. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,773.95. The strong close in the technology-heavy index shows investors remain willing to back companies' growth expectations, though it does not establish equal strength across all stocks.
  • The U.S. Treasury's October 5 data put the 10-year yield at 5.31%, compared with 5.28% on Friday. Interest-bearing assets offer an alternative to shares while raising costs for companies taking out new loans. Stocks rising alongside yields can be read as investors expecting enough earnings to justify that expense, but those expected profits still need to materialize.
  • The U.S. ISM Services PMI eased from 55.4 to 54.9 in September, with the sector still expanding. The Prices Index nevertheless rose from 72.6 to 74. That combination suggests a modest slowing in demand does not immediately remove cost pressure. How far service companies can pass higher expenses through to customers can affect profit as much as sales.

What changed since yesterday?

  • Yesterday morning, the U.S. market picture was based on Friday's close. The Nasdaq reached a new high on Monday, and the 10-year yield rose too. The positive direction in equities did not come with easing rate pressure, making the distribution of those gains across companies more important.

Market levels

U.S. equities and bonds

  • The S&P 500 last closed at 7,773.95, very close to the 7,775 resistance threshold cited by financial analyst Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) on October 1. I would first look for a sustained move above that area; a retreat toward the earlier 7,600 support would erase a larger portion of the advance.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, finished Monday at $756.20. The day's $756.92 high is the nearest upper threshold, while the $749.08 low is the lower boundary I will watch to assess how much of the latest gain holds. These are Monday's trading boundaries: one session alone does not establish lasting support or resistance.
  • Semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) reached $633.90. Clearing Monday's $634.78 high would be the first test of continued buying; a move below $626.96 would take it beneath the same day's trading range. This single-session range does not yet establish lasting support or resistance. Maintaining a positive view of chip demand differs from assuming the price must rise under all conditions.
  • TLT ($TLT), which tracks U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years, closed at $77.11. Monday's range was $76.69-$77.26. Reclaiming the upper confirmation boundary would be a first step toward recovery in bond prices; losing the lower boundary would point to continued selling. For support to form at the low, I would look for that area to hold in subsequent sessions. Bond prices can fall as yields rise, so earning a high yield and expecting gains in a long-duration bond fund are different exposures.

Metals and crypto

  • Gold ETF GLD ($GLD) last closed at $379.55. Monday's high was $380.78 and its low was $377.98. Crossing the upper boundary would break out of the latest narrow range, while falling below the low would make recovery harder. While looking for upside confirmation, I do not treat a single-session low as established support. Higher income available from bonds can weigh on demand for gold, which pays no interest.
  • Silver ETF SLV ($SLV) closed at $55.13. It reached $55.61 during the session before pulling back; I would first seek confirmation through a move back above that high. Below $54.92, it would lose Monday's range; lasting support at that low has not yet been confirmed. Silver's industrial uses can cause it to respond differently from gold to slower growth.
  • Bitcoin is around $85,679 this morning, above the $85,100-$85,200 confirmation band in Şatıroğlu's September 26 assessment. However, a single quote does not establish the strong move and follow-through he sought. Earlier support is at $82,700. Ethereum is around $2,701, still below its $2,730-$2,740 confirmation area, with $2,630 support and $2,810 as the next resistance.

Red flags

  • If earnings expectations fall while yields rise, stocks may face two separate pressures. A strong previous close offers no protection against new data in that situation; companies that rely on borrowing to grow deserve particular reassessment.
  • If the index advance is concentrated in a handful of companies, the stocks an average investor follows may not share the record. It matters whether the new high reflects broad strength or a narrow pocket of buying.

Calendar

  • October 7, 17:30: The U.S. weekly petroleum inventory report. Crude and fuel inventories help assess supply and refinery conditions together.
  • October 7, 21:00: Minutes of the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting. They describe the discussion at that meeting, rather than an assessment of the employment and services data released later. All times are Türkiye time.

My analysis

I read today's record as a sign that the market trusts companies' earnings despite expensive financing. I do not spread that confidence equally across all technology stocks. A company that generates its own cash and demonstrates returns on its investment is different from one that continually seeks new funding. How good news helps a company make money matters more than how exciting the headline sounds.

I will first watch the direction of Treasury yields, then whether technology and semiconductor ETFs can hold their latest highs. Easing financing costs alongside buying spread across more companies would increase my confidence in the advance. If yields stay high while earnings expectations weaken, I would reassess today's optimism; a single record close does not remove that risk.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.