Brent crude closed Tuesday at $99.25, back below $100. The Nasdaq Composite set another record, but the Dow fell and the S&P 500 was little changed. Cheaper oil gives technology stocks some breathing room; Tuesday's close shows that the relief did not reach every stock equally.

The question I am watching today is whether lower energy costs will last and whether buying in chip stocks will spread to software and the broader market. President Donald Trump said U.S. and Iranian officials held talks, but no agreement has been announced. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also stayed at 4.96% on Tuesday. I will not take a Nasdaq record alone as a signal of broad optimism without considering oil, diplomacy and rates together.

Key takeaways

  • The chip-company ETF $SMH rose 1.9% on Tuesday, while the software-company ETF $IGV fell 0.4%. Gains are uneven even within technology. Continued buying in chips does not by itself reverse weakness in software.
  • $META fell 0.6% at Tuesday's close after jumping more than 11% on Monday. Interest in the Muse app is strong, but this move does not prove that the product is contributing to revenue or profit. The September 23-24 Meta Connect event may bring product news; usage and revenue data are separate questions.
  • Bitcoin is around $86,922 this morning, above yesterday morning's $85,165. Its recovery moving in the same direction as selective buying in technology stocks may be a sign of shared risk appetite, but it is not confirmation on its own.

What happened?

  • According to the Associated Press (@AP), the Nasdaq Composite finished Tuesday at 27,244.28, up 0.5%. The S&P 500 was flat at 7,764.64, while the Dow fell 185 points. The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, rose 0.5%, so the split was not simply between large and small companies.
  • Brent briefly fell below $98 during the day, then closed at $99.25. That is lower than yesterday morning's $101.04, though the figures come from different times and are not a session return. Easing energy pressure is positive for inflation and company costs, but shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains.
  • Trump said U.S. and Iranian representatives met for about three hours during the United Nations meetings. He gave no details of the discussion and said he expected another meeting. The possibility of diplomacy may reduce the risk premium in oil, but I would not conclude that the war or shipping restrictions have ended.
  • The U.S. Treasury's table shows the 10-year yield at 4.96% on both Monday and Tuesday. The fact that yields did not fall further as oil became cheaper is a reminder that financing pressure has not fully eased, especially for technology companies valued on profits expected further in the future.

What changed since yesterday?

  • In yesterday's note, we were watching whether the broad technology buying that followed Meta's jump would hold. At the new close, the chip fund rose from $596.03 to $607.46; the software fund fell from $107.13 to $106.75. Meta also gave back a small part of its gain. Even as the Nasdaq set a record, the rally narrowed within technology. Brent's close below $100 reversed yesterday morning's reading above $100.

Market levels

Oil and U.S. equities

  • Brent's latest close was $99.25. The $98 level, which it briefly fell below and then reclaimed, is an initial support candidate; a move back above the $100 resistance threshold could bring energy-cost pressure back. One close is not enough to establish lasting supply relief.
  • $QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $747.46. Tuesday's high of $748.35 is a nearby resistance candidate. The prior close of $741.47 is an initial support candidate; a return there would give back the new gain, while holding that area would be a stronger sign that buying in technology can continue.

Where chips and software diverge

  • The chip fund SMH stands at $607.46. If it clears the intraday high of $608.66, the $619-$620 area noted by market commentator Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) could come into view, but only as a conditional next resistance. Monday's $596.03 close is an initial support candidate below; losing it would weaken momentum in chips.
  • The software fund IGV closed at $106.75. It approached Şatıroğlu's $107-$108 resistance area during the day but finished below it. Tuesday's $105.82 low is a short-term support candidate; reclaiming $107 could be the first sign that software is joining chips again.

Red flags

  • The U.S.-Iran meeting is not an agreement. If oil shipping and insurance costs through the Strait of Hormuz do not fall, Brent's move below $100 could easily reverse.
  • If the Nasdaq record rests on a small group of strong chip stocks, it may hide losses in software and financial stocks. I will watch the breadth of the index's rise separately.
  • Meta Connect may generate excitement about new products, but trying an app is different from using it regularly and generating revenue for the company. If expectations climb quickly without concrete usage data, the stock could see more volatility.

Calendar

  • September 23, 5:30 p.m.: The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly oil report is due. Inventory and production data will be a second test for Brent below $100.
  • September 23-24: Meta Connect takes place. I will not treat expected product news as proof of a market repricing before it arrives.
  • September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the White House. According to the official program, he arrives in the United States on September 23; concrete decisions on trade and technology need to be separated from statements. All times are Turkey time.

My analysis

Brent's close below $100 matters because energy costs feed through to inflation and bond yields. Yet Tuesday's main message is selective buying, not unconditional relief. Chips rose; software fell, Meta gave back part of its gain and the Dow declined. I therefore do not read the new Nasdaq record as proof that the whole market has strengthened.

First, I will watch whether Brent stays below $100 and whether the U.S.-Iran talks produce an outcome that genuinely reduces shipping risk. Then, QQQ holding its prior close, SMH clearing its new high and IGV reclaiming $107 would present a more consistent picture of buying spreading. If oil rises again alongside Treasury yields, technology stocks may struggle to hold their gains.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.