Brent crude fell about 5% on Monday morning to $91.89. A second night without the US and Iran attacking each other pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.64% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.2%.

This is not a ceasefire. Normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed, and the reason the attacks stopped remains unclear. The market is therefore pricing a short-term reduction in oil and inflation risk, not the end of the war. The Fed's interest-rate decision, technology earnings and Brent's movement in the $90-$95 range will show whether the relief can last.

Key takeaways

  • According to Reuters, September Brent fell 5.05% to $91.89. Trading activity has moved to the October contract, so some screens may show $87.48. The two figures refer to different delivery months.
  • In Bloomberg's July 27 morning data, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.64%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.2% and S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%.
  • The US and Iran launched no new attacks for two nights. Iran said it had suspended its military response as long as the US did not attack, while talks with Oman over passage through Hormuz continued. Commercial traffic through the strait has still not returned to normal, and details of the discussions have not been disclosed.
  • Bloomberg Television reported over the weekend that the White House was concerned about pressure on stocks of Patriot air-defence missiles and other interceptors. This could help explain the pause in attacks. It is not evidence of a lasting diplomatic agreement.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) said Brent could settle into a $93-$100 range if tanker traffic continues. Monday's move below $93 shows that the market is pricing the pause as stronger relief than his weekend framework implied.
  • QQQ ($QQQ) closed Friday at $684.23 and SMH, the semiconductor ETF ($SMH), at $561.19. The rise in Nasdaq futures is positive, but it is too early to say the technology sell-off is over before QQQ reclaims $690 and SMH recovers the $574-$580 area in cash trading.
  • Bitcoin is at $65,350, Ethereum at $1,957 and XRP at $1.108. Bitcoin has cleared Şatıroğlu's $64,400 recovery threshold and Ethereum his $1,880 threshold. XRP does not confirm a stronger move before it clears the $1.13-$1.16 area.
  • In a CNBC broadcast, State Street's Cynthia Murphy said investment in AI data centres, the electricity grid and defence had brought strong inflows into industrial companies, but sector valuations had also risen as high as technology valuations. Industrial stocks benefiting from AI investment are no longer automatically a cheap alternative.

What happened?

  • The market's first response is clear: lower oil, lower Treasury yields and higher technology futures. Brent's decline from last week's $102 to $91.89 has reduced the inflation pressure from energy and the risk of a potential Fed rate increase.
  • Geopolitical risk has not disappeared. Normal commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed, Iran's claim of authority over passage remains unresolved, and the alternative Red Sea route is also exposed to attacks. A new strike or another halt in tanker traffic could quickly reverse the move.
  • The reason for the pause also matters. If the parties are moving toward a verifiable diplomatic framework, oil relief could last. If the pause is tactical and designed to preserve US air-defence stocks and regional support, the same risk could return within days.
  • Lower oil and yields provide only the first layer of relief for technology. Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The central question is how much revenue, profit and free cash flow these companies are generating from their large AI investments.
  • Bloomberg Television stressed that major technology companies could face more expensive borrowing conditions as AI investment rises. Lower oil and yields reduce that pressure. They do not remove it if the earnings reports show weak cash generation.
  • Industrial stocks face the same test. Data centres, electricity grids, cooling and defence investment form the second layer of technology spending. If those expectations are already strongly reflected in prices, an earnings disappointment could affect not only semiconductor companies, but industrial firms as well.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $91.89. The first support and relief area is $90-$92, followed by lower support at $87-$88. The first resistance is $95-$96, with $98-$100 the main risk area. Staying below $92 would reduce near-term inflation pressure. A return above $95 would show confidence in the pause weakening.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.64%. The first support is 4.60%-4.63%, the first resistance 4.67%, and the main risk area 4.71%-4.75%. Staying below 4.67% supports technology valuations. A move above 4.75% would show that oil relief is not carrying through to rates.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, while futures were 0.7% higher on Monday morning. The first support is 7,400, the first resistance 7,450, and 7,500 the stronger level to reclaim. A sustained move above 7,450 in cash trading would show the relief spreading across the broader market.
  • QQQ closed Friday at $684.23. The first support is $682-$684, followed by $675-$680. The first resistance is $690, with $700-$705 the stronger recovery area. The 1.2% rise in Nasdaq futures is positive, but I do not treat the first reaction as a breakout before QQQ holds above $690.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH closed Friday at $561.19. The first support is $556-$560, followed by $550. The first resistance and area to reclaim is $574-$580, with $590 the stronger recovery level. A move above $574 is needed before saying the semiconductor sell-off has ended.
  • IGV, the software ETF, closed Friday at $87.98. Support is at $87-$88, with the $89-$90 area watched by Tunç Şatıroğlu as the first resistance. Weakness in software continues until that resistance is reclaimed. A move below $87 would signal renewed pressure.
  • XLI, the US industrials ETF, closed Friday at $182.66. Support is at $181-$182 and the first resistance at $184. AI infrastructure and defence spending support the sector, but CNBC's valuation warning means fund inflows alone do not create a new cheap-valuation story.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $65,350. Support is at $64,400-$64,000, the first resistance at $65,800 and the stronger continuation area at $67,900-$68,000. Holding above $64,400 preserves the structure. A new upward impulse is not complete before $65,800 is cleared.
  • Ethereum is near $1,957. The first support is $1,920, followed by lower support at $1,880-$1,850. The first strong resistance is $1,970-$2,000. Holding above $1,920 is positive, while a move above $2,000 would strengthen the broader crypto recovery.
  • XRP is near $1.108. Support is at $1.07-$1.08, the first resistance at $1.13 and the stronger confirmation level at $1.16. I do not read the current move as a strong breakout before $1.13 is cleared.
  • GLD, the gold ETF, closed Friday at $371.90 and SLV, the silver ETF, at $52.59. GLD has support at $370-$372 and resistance at $375. SLV has support at $52 and resistance at $54. Lower oil and yields can support gold, but stronger appetite for risk can limit safe-haven demand.

Red flags

  • If the US or Iran resumes attacks, tanker traffic falls and Brent rises above $95, Monday morning's relief could reverse quickly.
  • If the market prices the pause as a lasting agreement while the details of the Hormuz talks remain undisclosed, one negative headline could trigger a sharp correction in oil and technology.
  • If the US 10-year Treasury yield returns to 4.75% while QQQ loses $682 and SMH falls below $556, the support that lower oil provides to technology will disappear.
  • If Microsoft, Meta, Apple or Amazon raises AI investment without supporting free cash flow and the profit outlook, the main reason for the technology sell-off will return to the foreground.
  • If valuations among industrial companies benefiting from AI investment have risen as high as technology valuations, weak investment returns could also trigger an expectations reset in XLI.
  • If Bitcoin loses $64,400, Ethereum falls below $1,920 and XRP loses $1.07 together, the geopolitical relief will not have spread across risk assets.

Calendar

  • July 27, 3:30 pm TRT: US durable-goods orders for June will be released. The core investment trend excluding defence and aircraft orders will provide the first signal on companies' willingness to spend.
  • July 28-29: The Fed will hold its interest-rate meeting. The decision is due at 9:00 pm TRT on July 29, followed by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 9:30 pm. The focus will be how much the oil pullback has reduced concern about a rate increase.
  • After the close on July 29: Microsoft and Meta report. Cloud growth, AI investment spending, borrowing needs and free cash flow will be central.
  • July 30, 3:30 pm TRT: The US advance estimate of second-quarter growth and the June personal income and spending report will be released. Apple and Amazon report after the close on the same day.

My analysis

Monday morning's move is genuine relief. Brent's decline of about 5%, the 10-year yield's fall to 4.64% and the rise in Nasdaq futures all tell the same story: the market is reducing the probability of a new energy shock and an urgent Fed rate increase.

This does not mean the risk of war is over. It means the market is assigning more weight to the pause for now. The Strait of Hormuz has not reopened, authority over passage remains unresolved, and there is no publicly disclosed agreement between the US and Iran.

That distinction should appear in price levels. If Brent holds in the $90-$92 area, the 10-year yield stays below 4.67% and QQQ reclaims $690, the relief will move beyond an overnight reaction. SMH reclaiming $574 and IGV $89 would also show that the damage inside technology is easing.

The negative scenario is simpler: Brent returns above $95, the Treasury yield approaches 4.75% and QQQ falls below $682. That combination would strengthen the view that the pause is tactical, with oil, rates and technology creating pressure at the same time.

Tunç Şatıroğlu's weekend view of a $93-$100 range for Brent now faces a new test. A price below $93 shows that the market is more optimistic. Tanker traffic needs to increase and Brent needs to stay below $92 for that optimism to be confirmed.

Relief from lower financing costs is not enough on its own for technology. The common point in the Bloomberg and CNBC broadcasts is that AI spending has spread from semiconductors to data centres, electricity grids and industrial companies. As valuations rise across that chain, the amount of revenue and cash generated by the investment becomes more important.

The right reading today is that pressure from oil has eased, but the market's central test has not been postponed. The Fed, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon will test both rate expectations and returns on AI investment this week. A lasting recovery requires Brent below $92, the 10-year yield below 4.67% and QQQ above $690 at the same time.

Sources

  • Reuters, US-Iran pause in attacks and Brent, July 27, 2026: live.euronext.com
  • Associated Press, oil contracts, Hormuz traffic and energy markets, July 26-27, 2026: apnews.com
  • Bloomberg, oil, Treasury yields and US equity-index futures, July 27, 2026: swissinfo.ch
  • Federal Reserve, July 28-29 meeting and press-conference schedule: federalreserve.gov
  • US Census Bureau, July 27 durable-goods release schedule: census.gov
  • US Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 30 GDP and personal income and spending schedule: bea.gov
  • Microsoft, July 29, 2026 earnings date: news.microsoft.com
  • Meta, July 29, 2026 earnings date: investor.atmeta.com
  • Apple, July 30, 2026 earnings call: apple.com
  • Amazon, July 30, 2026 earnings date: ir.aboutamazon.com
  • Bloomberg Television, US-Iran pause in attacks, July 26, 2026: youtube.com
  • Bloomberg Television, weekend geopolitics and technology broadcast, July 26, 2026: youtube.com
  • CNBC Television, AI and industrial valuations, July 26, 2026: youtube.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu, market commentary, July 25, 2026: youtube.com

This material is for research and monitoring purposes only and is not investment advice.