Brent crude fell about 4% on Friday to close at $96.78. This weekend, however, the Houthis claimed to have targeted Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan. Saudi Arabia did not confirm any new damage, but the Red Sea route used as an alternative to Hormuz has become more fragile.

The new week begins with two tests: the security of oil shipments, and the Fed meeting on July 28-29 followed by four major technology earnings reports on July 29-30. Monday's Brent price will provide the first signal on whether Friday's oil relief can last. Treasury yields and the technology companies' cash-flow messages will come next.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 gained less than 0.1% on Friday to close at 7,411.98, while the Dow Jones rose 0.5% to 51,947.25. The Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 24,975.82 and the Russell 2000 declined 0.3% to 2,930. Weekly losses were 2.1% for the Nasdaq, 0.6% for the S&P 500, 0.4% for the Dow and 1.1% for the Russell 2000.
  • After reaching $102 on Thursday, Brent crude fell about 4% on Friday to close at $96.78. The official US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.69% and the 30-year yield at 5.16%. Relief in oil and yields supported the broader market, but did not end the technology sell-off.
  • Saudi Arabia has recently been moving about 4 million barrels of oil per day through its east-west pipeline to Yanbu as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi claim that it targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan is not a confirmed new production loss. It is a warning that the alternative export route is also exposed to attack.
  • QQQ ($QQQ) closed at $684.33 on Friday, while SMH, the semiconductor ETF ($SMH), finished at $561.22. QQQ remains below $690 and SMH below the $574-$580 area, so it is too early to say that the selling in technology and semiconductor stocks is over.
  • Bitcoin was near $64,400 on Sunday morning and Ethereum near $1,885. BTC is holding above $64,000 and ETH above $1,850, but crypto is not confirming broader risk appetite before the respective resistance levels at $65,800 and $1,900-$1,920 are cleared.
  • Ed Yardeni, founder and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, said strong corporate earnings could support the equity market despite elevated interest rates. The view rests on earnings expectations being stronger today than they were in 2022. The four major technology reports ahead will test that thesis directly.
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told Bloomberg Television (@BloombergTV) that capacity is constrained in the advanced memory chips used by AI systems, as well as in land, electricity and data-centre construction. This is management's long-term demand view, not independent proof of demand. It shows why the pace of investment needs to be read alongside physical capacity and cash generation.

What happened?

  • Friday's main relief came from oil. Brent's decline from $102 to $96.78 limited the inflation and Fed pressure coming from energy. The Nasdaq still ended the week down 2.1%. Lower oil did not produce an automatic rebound in technology stocks.
  • The direction of risk changed over the weekend. Problems in the Strait of Hormuz make not only the waterway itself, but also the pipelines and terminals carrying oil to the Red Sea more important. A lasting disruption around Yanbu or Bab el-Mandeb could reduce the capacity of the route used as an alternative to Hormuz.
  • According to the Associated Press, the Houthis said they had targeted Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan with missiles and drones. Saudi Arabia reported that alerts had sounded, but did not confirm new damage or a production loss. The market is therefore pricing higher route risk, not a supply loss that has already occurred.
  • Bloomberg Television described a mixed picture for vessels passing through Hormuz. Some China-linked tankers continued through while other ships turned back, and Saudi Arabia kept moving oil to the Red Sea through Yanbu. The risk is not only that a passage closes. Pipelines, terminals, natural-gas infrastructure and ships can take much longer to repair if they are hit.
  • Relief in rates remains limited. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.69% is still in an area that makes technology valuations more difficult. Ed Yardeni believes a 4%-5% range can be normal in a strong economy and that corporate earnings will make the difference. If that view is right, the coming reports will need to show not only revenue, but how much cash and profit the investment spending produces.
  • The technology calendar is crowded. Microsoft and Meta report on July 29, followed by Apple and Amazon on July 30. The Fed will deliver its interest-rate decision in the same week. Markets will therefore have to price oil, rates and corporate earnings at the same time.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $96.78. The first support is $95-$96, followed by $92-$93. The first resistance and risk area is $98-$100, with $102 the next threshold. Staying below $98 on Monday would show that the market is not yet pricing the weekend attack claims as a new supply loss. A move above $100 would signal renewed pricing of the route risk.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.69%. Support is at 4.65%-4.67%, while 4.71%-4.75% is the resistance and risk area. The larger pressure threshold is 5%. A move below 4.67% would offer the first relief for technology, while a rise above 4.75% would show valuation pressure strengthening again.
  • The US 30-year Treasury yield is at 5.16%. Support is at 5.10%-5.15%, with the first resistance at 5.20%. Holding above 5.20% would show that long-term financing costs remain elevated. A move below 5.15% would extend the relief in the bond market.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,411.98. The first support is 7,400, followed by 7,350. The first resistance is 7,450, with 7,500 the stronger level to reclaim. The index held above 7,400, but it is too early to say the weekly loss has been repaired before 7,450 is cleared.
  • The Nasdaq is at 24,975.82. The first threshold and level to reclaim is 25,000, followed by support at 24,700-24,500. The first strong resistance is 25,300. Remaining below 25,000 shows that the new week is beginning with pressure on technology.
  • QQQ is at $684.33. The first support is $682-$684, followed by $675-$680. The first resistance is $690, with $700-$705 the stronger rebound area. It is too early to say the large-technology sell-off is over before $690 is reclaimed.
  • IWM, the small-cap ETF ($IWM), is at $291.19. The first support is $290, followed by $285. The first resistance is $294, with $300 the stronger continuation threshold. Holding above $290 would show that the selling has not spread across the entire market. A move below $290 would weaken that divergence.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $561.22. The first support is $556-$560, followed by $550. The first resistance and area to reclaim is $574-$580, with $590 the stronger recovery level. Short-term damage in semiconductors remains while SMH stays below $574.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $64,400. The first support is $64,000, followed by $63,600. The first resistance is $65,800, with $67,900-$68,000 the stronger continuation area. Holding $64,000 matters, but a new upward impulse is not confirmed before $65,800 is cleared.
  • Ethereum is near $1,885. The first support is $1,850, followed by $1,800. The first resistance is $1,900-$1,920, with $1,970-$2,000 the stronger area. Holding above $1,850 preserves the structure, while a move above $1,920 would signal renewed strength.
  • GLD, the gold ETF ($GLD), closed Friday at $371.87. Support is at $370-$372, the first resistance at $375 and the stronger rebound area at $382. The first market response to the weekend's geopolitical risk will arrive on Monday. A new advance still requires a move above $375.

Red flags

  • If Saudi Arabia confirms damage to energy infrastructure in Yanbu or Jizan, export flows slow and Brent moves above $100, Friday's oil relief will be over.
  • If the US 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.75% while Brent also moves above $100, energy and financing costs will pressure technology stocks at the same time.
  • If the Nasdaq falls below 24,700, QQQ below $682 and SMH below $556 together, the technology sell-off could spread across a broader part of the market.
  • If the Fed delivers a more hawkish message while Microsoft, Meta, Apple or Amazon raise investment spending without supporting the cash-flow outlook, concerns about returns on AI investment will grow.
  • If Bitcoin loses $64,000 and Ethereum loses $1,850 at the same time, risk assets outside technology will also begin the new week on weaker ground.

Calendar

  • Monday, July 27: The first market response to the weekend's energy-infrastructure news will be whether Brent returns to the $98-$100 area during Asian and European trading.
  • July 28-29: The Fed will hold its interest-rate meeting. The decision is due at 9:00 pm TRT on July 29, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference at 9:30 pm. The focus will be whether oil and tariffs have changed the inflation outlook.
  • After the close on July 29: Microsoft and Meta report. Cloud growth, AI investment, free cash flow and messages about returns on investment will be central to technology pricing.
  • After the close on July 30: Apple and Amazon report. Device demand and services revenue will be watched at Apple, while AWS growth and data-centre investment will be the focus at Amazon.

My analysis

Markets benefited from lower oil on Friday, but the weekend's news showed how fragile that relief is. When use of the Strait of Hormuz is restricted or the passage becomes unsafe, the solution is not simply to find another sea route. The pipelines, terminals and ports carrying oil to that route also need to remain secure.

That is the new risk. Moving oil to the Red Sea through Yanbu provides capacity outside Hormuz. If the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea route is also exposed to attack, however, the market has fewer secure alternatives.

There is still no confirmed new loss of production or exports. It is therefore too early to treat the weekend's news as a supply shock that has already happened. Brent will provide the first reliable signal on Monday. Staying below $98 would show that the risk has not yet disrupted flows. A move above $100 would show the market assigning a higher price to the alternative route.

Ed Yardeni's earnings-resilience thesis and Jensen Huang's long-term view of AI infrastructure will be tested at the same point. Strong demand is not enough on its own. Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon need to show how much revenue, profit and free cash flow their investment spending can generate.

The positive scenario is clear: Brent stays below $98, the 10-year yield moves below 4.67%, QQQ reclaims $690 and SMH recovers the $574-$580 area. In that case, the technology sell-off is more likely to remain a sharp repricing without broader market damage.

The negative scenario is Brent moving above $100 and the 10-year yield above 4.75%, while QQQ loses $682 and SMH falls below $556. If that combination develops, the oil route, financing costs and returns on AI investment will pressure technology valuations at the same time.

Rather than predicting the direction of the new week, I am watching three confirmation areas: Brent at $98-$100, the US 10-year yield at 4.67%-4.75%, and QQQ at $682-$690. Oil will provide the first signal on how much route risk the market is pricing. The Fed and earnings will determine the more lasting direction.

Sources

  • Associated Press, Iran war, Saudi energy facilities and the Red Sea route, July 25, 2026: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, US market close and Brent, July 24, 2026: apnews.com
  • US Department of the Treasury, official Treasury yields for July 24, 2026: home.treasury.gov
  • Federal Reserve, July 28-29 meeting and press-conference schedule: federalreserve.gov
  • Microsoft, July 29, 2026 earnings date: news.microsoft.com
  • Meta, July 29, 2026 earnings date: investor.atmeta.com
  • Apple, July 30, 2026 earnings call: apple.com
  • Amazon, July 30, 2026 earnings date: ir.aboutamazon.com
  • Bloomberg Television, weekend markets and geopolitics, July 25, 2026: youtube.com
  • Yardeni Research, Ed Yardeni biography and Bloomberg Television interview: yardeni.com
  • Bloomberg Television, Edward Yardeni interview: youtube.com

This material is for research and monitoring purposes only and is not investment advice.