US inflation fell more than expected in June, but markets could not carry that relief through the end of the week. Brent rose to $88.10, the Nasdaq fell 1.4% on Friday and selling pressure in semiconductor shares intensified again.

The widening US-Iran conflict over the weekend makes Monday’s open even more important. The central question for the new week is whether falling inflation can protect markets as oil approaches $90, or whether a new wave of selling will begin in technology shares.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 fell 1% on Friday to close at 7,457.69. The Nasdaq lost 1.4% and QQQ fell about 1.5%. Small companies and some space shares held up better. The selling was serious, but it has not spread with the same intensity across every part of the market.
  • Brent rose 4.6% on Friday to $88.10, taking its weekly gain to roughly 16%. New US strikes on targets in Iran on Sunday morning increased the risk of a higher oil open and a lower equity open on Monday.
  • US CPI fell 0.4% in June from the previous month. Annual inflation declined to 3.5% and core inflation to 2.6%. The report reduced near-term pressure for rate increases. A US 10-year yield at 4.55% and Brent above $88, however, make it too early to say interest-rate risk is over.
  • SMH, the semiconductor ETF, fell to $556.08 and closed below the $560 level monitored by Tunç Şatıroğlu. IGV, the software ETF, and IWM fell less. For now, that shows AI-related selling remains more concentrated in semiconductors.
  • Bitcoin is near $64,700 over the weekend and remains above $63,000 support. Rocket Lab finished Friday slightly higher and AST SpaceMobile gained about 5%. The resilience of crypto and some space shares in a weak market matters, but it is not yet a broad risk-on signal.

What happened?

  • CNBC’s Friday closing summary showed the Dow down 406 points, the S&P 500 down 76 and the Nasdaq down 361. The Nasdaq’s weekly loss reached roughly 3%. Weak guidance from Netflix and selling in semiconductor shares increased pressure on technology.
  • Associated Press data showed Brent rising 4.6% on Friday to $88.10. The US 10-year Treasury yield eased during the day but remained at 4.55%. Bond markets offered limited relief, but the 4.50% threshold that matters for growth shares has not yet been broken to the downside.
  • Weekend risk did not subside. The Associated Press reported that the United States launched new attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guard, coastal surveillance, air-defence, missile and naval targets on Sunday. One aim of the operation was to reduce Iran’s capacity to restrict tanker traffic through Hormuz. That does not invalidate @tuncsatiroglu’s view that reopening the strait could produce a strong rebound in heavily sold risk assets; it shows that scenario has not yet materialised.
  • According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the main reason for June’s monthly inflation decline was a 5.7% fall in energy prices. The problem is timing: that report describes the previous month, while oil at $88 creates a new risk for the months ahead.
  • “Distilled distress” in The Economist’s July 18 issue takes the argument one step further. Brent alone may not capture the full energy shock. If refinery damage and disruption in Hormuz persist, the greatest pressure may build in diesel, petrol, jet fuel, LNG, freight and insurance costs. That could reverse June’s energy-led inflation relief with a delay.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu updated his view progressively across his last five videos. He first emphasised pressure from oil and Hormuz on gold, silver, the Nasdaq and semiconductors, then began monitoring the resilience of Bitcoin and selected space shares as a leading signal. His latest central scenario is a strong rebound in heavily sold risk assets if Hormuz reopens. I am keeping that as a conditional scenario for now: the weekend news flow points to a widening conflict, not a reopening.
  • @boraozkent’s central thesis is that profit opportunities in AI are expanding from hardware into model laboratories and AI agents. A Yahoo Finance discussion raised a counterpoint: Chinese company Moonshot’s low-cost, open-weight K3 model may be approaching US laboratories and could prompt renewed questions about the vast data-centre spending of major technology companies. Moonshot’s performance claims have not been established through independent tests. Even so, markets are clearly asking not only whether more chips will be sold, but who will earn how much from the spending.
  • “Artificial insecurity” in the same Economist issue places open-weight models in a broader debate about sovereignty. Models such as Moonshot’s may expand choice, but advanced chips, ASML lithography, high-bandwidth memory and energy remain critical bottlenecks. The decisive question in the AI race is therefore not only who builds the best model, but who controls those bottlenecks while the system is running.
  • CNBC’s Mad Money focused on investment discipline rather than daily market news: believing in a powerful story is not enough reason to ignore risk rules. A Yahoo Finance programme on Warren Buffett also highlighted the distinction between investing and playing short-term price movements.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent is at $88.10. The first support area is $83-$85, the short-term threshold is $88-$88.50 and the first important resistance is $93. Holding above $88.50 increases the risk of a move to $93; a return below $83 would show that oil-driven pressure is easing.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.55%. The first support and relief threshold is 4.50%, while 4.57%-4.60% is the first resistance area. It is too early to read lasting relief for the Nasdaq before the yield falls below 4.50%; a move above 4.60% could deepen technology selling.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,457.69. The first support is 7,450, with stronger lower support at 7,350-7,327 and first resistance at 7,550. Holding near 7,450 would preserve the sideways structure; a break below 7,327 would increase the risk that selling develops into a broader correction.
  • QQQ is at $695.31. The first support is $687-$690, first resistance is $700-$705 and $712 is the stronger recovery level. Selling in mega-cap technology cannot be called over before QQQ reclaims $700-$705.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH is at $556.08. The first support is $537-$540, $560 is now the first resistance and $590 is the stronger recovery zone. Closing below $560 shows that damage in semiconductors remains active; it is difficult to call the sector repaired before $590 is reclaimed.
  • IGV is at $92.88. The first support is $92 and first resistance is $94-$95. Software is holding up better than semiconductors, but it has not established a strong divergence before settling above $95.
  • IWM is at $294.09. Support is $292-$294 and first resistance is $300. Small companies falling less than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shows selling has not yet spread everywhere; a move below $292 would weaken that advantage.
  • Nvidia is at $202.80. The first support is $198-$200 and first resistance is $207-$210. Bora Özkent’s long-term view on Nvidia and AI infrastructure may remain strong, but short-term selling pressure has not ended before the price returns above $210.
  • Rocket Lab is at $67.60. Support is $64-$65 and first resistance is $70-$71. AST SpaceMobile is at $57.78, with support at $54-$55 and first resistance at $61-$62. Friday’s divergence was positive, but volatility is very high and confirmation requires those resistance levels to be cleared.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is near $64,700. Support is $63,000, first resistance is $67,700 and $72,000 is the stronger target area. Tunç Şatıroğlu’s leading-indicator thesis remains active above $63,000, but there is no strong signal spreading into broad risk appetite before $67,700 is cleared.
  • Ether is near $1,868. Support is $1,840, first resistance is $1,920 and $2,000 is the stronger confirmation level. Ether has recovered better than Bitcoin in recent days; a break below $1,840 would weaken that advantage.
  • XRP is near $1.094. Support is $1.07 and resistance is $1.13. The price remains inside this narrow range and needs a break for direction.
  • Gold is near $4,000. Support is $3,940-$4,000 and first resistance is $4,100. Gold found buyers from Friday’s low, but it is too early to say a new rally has begun before $4,100 is cleared.
  • Silver is near $56. Support is $55-$56, first resistance is $58 and $60 is the stronger recovery level. The long-term story and short-term setup are separate: there is no strong buying signal before the $58-$60 band is reclaimed.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 closed Friday near 13,981. The first support is 13,882, 14,000 is the first threshold and 14,300-14,450 is the resistance area. The index is trying to hold around 14,000; a break below 13,882 would increase selling pressure, while a move above 14,300 would produce the first relief signal.
  • USD/TRY is near 47.14. Support is 47.00 and the resistance area is 47.35-47.50. The currency’s move is limited, but oil remaining above $88 again increases inflation and current-account risk for Turkey.
  • The Economist’s July 4 report on Turkey presents Ceyhan, its ports and regional energy pipelines as a potential alternative corridor to Hormuz. Its warning is equally important: turning Turkey’s geopolitical advantage into lasting capital depends on reserves, inflation and policy credibility. Oil above $88 therefore creates both a corridor opportunity and a macroeconomic burden for Turkey.

Red flags

  • If Brent holds above $88.50 and moves toward $93, June’s inflation relief will quickly become stale information. Rising oil and a rising US 10-year yield at the same time would be the hardest scenario for technology.
  • If the S&P 500 loses 7,450 and QQQ loses the $687-$690 band, a second leg of Friday’s selling could begin. SMH below $537 would make the damage in semiconductors more serious.
  • Further US-Iran attacks that reduce tanker traffic or spread to Gulf infrastructure could create opening price gaps on Monday. Weekend crypto moves do not guarantee the direction of Monday’s equity open.
  • A Bitcoin move below $63,000 would weaken the leading-indicator thesis. If RKLB falls below $64 and ASTS below $54, Friday’s divergence in space shares may prove short-lived.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,882 as USD/TRY rises above 47.50, the Turkish impact of the oil shock would become more visible.

Calendar

  • Monday, July 20: The first test will be Brent, US equity futures and the flow of news from Hormuz. The market will watch whether the S&P 500 can reclaim 7,450, QQQ $700 and SMH $560.
  • Wednesday, July 22: Alphabet and Tesla report earnings. The focus at Alphabet will be whether AI spending is converting into cloud and advertising revenue; at Tesla, margins, cash flow and new technology investment will stand out.
  • Thursday, July 23: US weekly jobless claims and Intel earnings. Intel will help show whether semiconductor selling is driven only by valuation fears or by a demand problem.
  • Friday, July 24: Preliminary July manufacturing and services PMIs and June new-home sales. The macro calendar is light, so earnings and geopolitical news may have a larger effect on prices.
  • July 28-29: The Federal Reserve meeting. June inflation reduced pressure for a rate increase, but the Fed’s language may turn more hawkish again if oil and bond yields remain elevated.

My analysis

June inflation was good enough to give markets room to breathe, but oil and semiconductor selling have overshadowed that relief for now.

The “who controls the bottlenecks?” framework developed across the last four issues of The Economist describes today’s market well. Hormuz is the energy bottleneck; advanced chips, lithography, memory and power capacity are the AI bottlenecks. Pressure in oil and semiconductors is therefore not a pair of unrelated stories.

The AI story is not over. The AI agents, model laboratories, Nvidia infrastructure and memory demand discussed by Bora Özkent point to a genuine pool of revenue.

Lower-cost models such as Moonshot’s, however, show that investors will no longer look only at capacity growth. They will ask how much revenue and profit every dollar of spending can generate.

My decision tree for the new week is therefore simple:

  • Can Brent remain below $88.50 and return to the $83-$85 area?
  • Can the S&P 500 hold 7,450 and reclaim 7,550, while QQQ reclaims $700-$705?
  • Can SMH return above $560 and then $590?
  • Can Bitcoin remain above $63,000 as RKLB and ASTS extend Friday’s divergence?
  • Can Alphabet, Tesla and Intel show a revenue and margin return on elevated AI spending?

If oil eases, the S&P 500 holds support and semiconductors return above $560, Friday’s move will remain a severe but manageable technology correction. If oil approaches $93 as the S&P 500 loses 7,450 and SMH loses $537, the market will have entered a new wave of risk reduction.

Sources

  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Kanal Finans / Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtube.com
  • Bora Özkent: youtube.com
  • CNBC Television / Market Close: youtube.com
  • CNBC Television / Mad Money: youtube.com
  • Yahoo Finance / Moonshot AI: youtube.com
  • Yahoo Finance / Warren Buffett: youtube.com
  • The Economist issues dated June 27, July 4, July 11 and July 18, 2026.
  • Associated Press market-close reporting and July 19 reporting on Hormuz.
  • US Bureau of Labor Statistics June 2026 inflation data.
  • New York Fed, US Census Bureau, Tesla Investor Relations and the current earnings calendar.
  • Alpaca market data.