U.S. stocks closed Thursday with modest losses: the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.1% and the Dow Jones 0.9%. By contrast, Brent rose 3.8% to $82.49 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.67%. The index decline was small, but oil and long-term yields rose at the same time.

The U.S. July employment report due today at 15:30 TRT is therefore not a one-direction test. Strong payrolls and wage growth could push yields higher; clear weakness could increase concern about company revenue and growth. Alongside headline payrolls, watch the unemployment rate, wages, prior-month revisions and the Treasury market's reaction.

There are two different signals on the company side. SpaceX rose 6.1% and returned to about $115 despite the end of its selling restriction. Western Digital and SanDisk recovered from their intraday lows but did not clear initial resistance. The day's central question is whether this company split survives the employment data.

Key takeaways

  • If Brent settles in the $83-$85 area after the employment report while the 10-year yield also moves above 4.70%, energy costs and valuation pressure will challenge growth stocks together.
  • QQQ ($QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, closed at $714.70 below the $717 recovery threshold. IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, closed at $298.25 below its first recovery level at $299; market participation did not break down completely, but it weakened.
  • SpaceX ($SPCX) returned to the initial $114-$115 recovery zone at $114.92. Not all of the newly saleable shares have reached the market; holding above $111 would suggest that the first day's supply was absorbed.
  • Bitcoin was about $64,188 below its $64,400 strengthening level, Ether $1,894 just above its $1,890 support and XRP $1.022 below $1.04. Ahead of the U.S. employment report, crypto is not showing a clear strengthening in investors' appetite to buy.

What happened?

  • According to Associated Press (@AP), the S&P 500 closed at 7,709.96, the Dow Jones at 53,885.10 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,348.35. Russell 2000 also fell 0.6% to 3,001.55. The main indexes are still positive for the week, but participation narrowed in Thursday's session.
  • Brent rose 3.8% to $82.49. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from Wednesday's 4.63% to 4.67%. Oil is lifting inflation expectations, while the Treasury yield pressures the present value of companies' future earnings.
  • More than 911 million SpaceX shares whose post-IPO selling restriction ended are more than twice the amount sold in the initial offering. The stock's rise despite that supply was a positive first reaction, but the right to sell is not the same as actual selling; the supply effect needs several sessions to measure.
  • According to Associated Press's August 7 assessment, about one-fifth of the world's oil normally passes through Hormuz. The U.S. argues that the route off Oman's coast is open, while Iran seeks control over passage. At least two vessels were hit in the past week and traffic remains far below its pre-crisis level; diplomatic proximity is not physical normalization.
  • Bloomberg Television's The Asia Trade highlighted that memory demand remains strong, but high prices are pushing some customers to cut orders and choose designs that use less memory. This explains why strong sector demand and share prices can behave differently on the same day.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) continues to see a positive August outlook for semiconductors. He is watching $550 as the risk boundary for semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) and around $100 as the software recovery threshold. At Thursday's close, SMH was $571.77 above its risk boundary, while the software-company ETF IGV was $99.46 below its recovery threshold.

Market levels

Global risk and rates

  • Brent is at $82.49. Support is $80 and $79, initial resistance $83 and the main risk threshold $85. A break through $83-$85 would show that the Hormuz dispute is again being priced through inflation and transportation costs; below $80 would be the first relief.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 4.67%. Support is 4.60%, the critical threshold 4.70% and the main risk boundary 4.85%. After employment data, a sustained move above 4.70% would increase valuation pressure on growth stocks; below 4.60% would bring rate-driven relief.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 is at 7,709.96. Support is 7,700 and 7,600, initial resistance 7,750 and the continuation level 7,800. The index is just above its first support; a return to record territory is not confirmed until 7,750 is reclaimed.
  • QQQ is $714.70 and IWM $298.25. QQQ support is $708.50 and $700, with resistance at $717 and $725; IWM support is $296, its first recovery level $299 and resistance $303-$305. QQQ holding support while IWM reclaims $299 would show that participation is broadening again after employment data.

Themes and ETFs

  • Semiconductor ETF SMH closed at $571.77 and Nvidia ($NVDA) at $218.79. SMH support is $560 and $550, with resistance at $575 and $585; Nvidia support is $215, its first recovery level $219 and resistance $224-$225. SMH is resilient, while Nvidia is just below its first recovery level.
  • Western Digital ($WDC) is $451.20 and SanDisk ($SNDK) $1,258.82. Western Digital support is $407-$400, with resistance at $458 and $480; SanDisk support is $1,164-$1,150, with resistance at $1,280 and $1,350. Both shares moved away from their lows, but neither has cleared initial resistance.
  • Software ETF IGV is at $99.46. Support is $97, the recovery threshold $101 and resistance $103.70. As long as it holds above $97, the selling is not yet deepening; reclaiming $101 would show software beginning to move with chip stocks again.
  • SpaceX is at $114.92. Support is $111 and $105, the initial recovery zone $114-$115 and the next resistance levels $120 and $126. The stock reached its first recovery zone; below $111 would show supply pressure worsening again, while above $120 would show stronger upside momentum.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin is about $64,188, Ether $1,894 and XRP $1.022. Bitcoin support is $62,000, the initial strengthening level $64,400 and resistance $65,800; Ether support is $1,890 and $1,850, with resistance at $1,925 and $1,970. For XRP, $1.04 is the first recovery level and $1.00 the psychological support.
  • Gold ETF GLD closed at $389.69 and silver ETF SLV at $55.86. GLD support is $385, with resistance at $390 and $395; SLV support is $55, with resistance at $56.10 and $56.75. Metals remain directionally positive, but a 10-year yield above 4.70% would make further progress harder.

Turkey

  • The last confirmed August 6 observation for the BIST 100 was 13,726.33. Support is 13,600 and 13,500, with resistance at 13,800 and 13,900. If the index starts below 13,800, a durable rise against global oil and rate pressure is not confirmed until that level is reclaimed.
  • The last confirmed August 6 observation for dollar/TL was about 47.60. Support is 47.50, initial resistance 47.70 and the risk boundary 48.00. As Brent rises, a move above 47.70 would raise energy and import costs at the same time for local companies.

Red flags

  • If employment is clearly weak while the S&P 500 falls below 7,600 and IWM below $296, the market may read weak data as a growth risk rather than as rate relief.
  • If Western Digital falls below $407, SanDisk below $1,164 and SMH also loses $560, the problem in memory shares would spread from a narrow company group into the semiconductor sector.
  • If Bitcoin loses $62,000, Ether $1,850 and XRP $1.00 together, crypto weakness would be an early sign that investors are leaving risky assets more broadly.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,500 while dollar/TL rises above 47.70 and Brent above $85, currency, energy and equity risk would work in the same direction in Turkey.

Calendar

  • August 7, 15:30 TRT: The U.S. July employment report will be released. Nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, hourly earnings and prior-month revisions will affect the direction of Treasury yields.
  • August 12, 15:30 TRT: The U.S. July consumer inflation report will be released. The pass-through of energy and services prices to consumers will be assessed alongside today's employment result.
  • August 13, 15:30 TRT: The U.S. July producer inflation report will be released. Oil, transportation and other input costs will be watched for their pressure on company margins.

My analysis

Thursday's session pointed less to a broad sell-off than to a change in what is pressuring the market. Company earnings and the return on AI investment had led the previous sessions; now oil and long-term yields are again common drivers. The indexes' limited decline signals resilience, while two macro indicators rising together signal fragility.

The first verdict after the employment data will come not from the headline, but from the joint reaction of Treasury yields and small companies. If IWM weakens as yields rise, valuation pressure dominates; if IWM also falls as yields decline, growth concern is heavier.

The company split completes this picture. SpaceX rising despite the end of its selling restriction suggests that supply pressure was limited in the first session, while memory stocks staying below resistance suggests strong demand alone did not meet high expectations. Durable relief requires lower oil and yields together with a recovery in market participation and company shares.

Sources

  • Associated Press, August 6 U.S. markets, SpaceX, Brent and Treasury yields: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 6 U.S. index closes: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 7 Hormuz dispute and physical traffic: apnews.com
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026 release calendar: bls.gov
  • U.S. ETF, stock and crypto prices: alpaca.markets
  • Bloomberg Television, The Close: youtu.be
  • Bloomberg Television, The Asia Trade: youtu.be
  • Kanal Finans, Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtu.be

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.