U.S. stocks rose strongly on Tuesday as oil and long-term Treasury yields fell; the S&P 500 gained 1.8%, the Nasdaq Composite 2.6% and the small-cap Russell 2000 1.8%. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite all set records in the session, while the advance was not confined to large technology stocks.

SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 91.9% year on year to $7.81 billion. Yet the company spent $18.37 billion on investment in the quarter, including $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure. The stock rose to $125.95 in regular trading before falling to about $118.81 after hours. Strong revenue growth did not cover the heavy investment bill.

The day's central question is how durable this advance is. Talks mediated by Oman have moved forward over the Strait of Hormuz, but no agreement has been signed and a cargo vessel was damaged in the strait. Today, U.S. private payrolls, services data and weekly oil inventories will offer the first answer.

Key takeaways

  • Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ ($QQQ) rose to $723.69, semiconductor ETF SMH ($SMH) to $575.70, software-company ETF IGV ($IGV) to $102.11 and IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, to $301.71. All four were above their prior watch levels; QQQ must hold above $707, SMH above $562, IGV above $101 and IWM above $300 today for the advance to continue.
  • SpaceX stock ($SPCX) finished regular trading up 10.1%, but fell to about $118.81 after the results. $114-$115 is initial support; losing this band would increase pressure from the heavy investment bill.
  • Brent is below $80 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield below 4.70%. Brent was about $78.43 this morning and the 10-year yield 4.63%; progress has been made in Hormuz, but there is no final agreement.
  • The BIST 100 rose 2.07% to close at 13,687.93 at the day's high; 479 stocks gained. Yet a one-day rise is not proof of a lasting turn.

What happened?

  • According to Associated Press (@AP), the S&P 500 at 7,736.52, the Dow Jones at 54,085.88 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,584.99 all set records. Chip, software and small-cap stocks also rose in the same session; buying that began on Monday spread to more companies on Tuesday.
  • According to SpaceX's filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, second-quarter revenue was $7.81 billion, net loss was $541 million and loss per share was $0.09. Starlink subscribers reached 12 million. The AI division generated $2.56 billion in revenue while receiving $15.83 billion of investment; total quarterly investment spending was $18.37 billion.
  • Iran and Oman reported progress on a route separating the Iran-controlled entrance from the Oman-controlled exit in Hormuz. Talks are continuing and the final arrangement may change; Iran ties the arrangement to its demand that the U.S. blockade be lifted. Damage to a cargo vessel in the strait that day showed that transit risk has not ended.
  • U.S. job openings in June fell from 7.54 million to 7.36 million, close to expectations. Layoffs held around 1.8 million, while hires fell to about 5.3 million. Labor demand slowed, but did not collapse.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) viewed the technical picture in the Nasdaq 100, SMH and IGV positively and considered $213 important for Nvidia ($NVDA). Nvidia reached $213.06 intraday but finished regular trading at $211.96; the close remained below $213.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was about $78.43 and WTI $74.96. Brent has support at $75-$76, $80 as the first level to reclaim and an $83-$85 main risk area; WTI has support at $73-$74, initial resistance at $76 and a stronger risk boundary at $80. As long as Brent stays below $80, energy-driven inflation pressure eases; a new vessel attack or breakdown in talks could reverse the relief.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.63%. Initial support is 4.60%, initial resistance 4.70% and the main risk boundary 4.85%. As long as the 10-year yield stays below 4.70%, valuation pressure on growth stocks eases; if services companies' spending comes in high today, yields could rise again.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,736.52. Support is at 7,700 and 7,600, initial resistance at 7,750 and the next confirmation level at 7,800. If the index holds above 7,700, it preserves its post-record strength; below 7,600 would give back a significant part of Tuesday's gain.
  • QQQ was at $723.69. Support is at $707 and $700, initial resistance at $725.62 and the continuation threshold at $730. A close above $725.62 would strengthen the advance; below $707 would weaken the move in technology stocks.

Themes and ETFs

  • SMH closed at $575.70 and Nvidia at $211.96. SMH has support at $562 and $550 and resistance at $578.63-$580; Nvidia has support at $206-$207, a confirmation threshold at $213 and resistance at $215. For the chip move to hold, SMH needs to stay above $562 and Nvidia needs to clear $213 at the close.
  • IGV closed at $102.11 and IWM at $301.71. IGV has support at $101 and $97 and resistance at $108; IWM has support at $300 and $296 and resistance at $302.38 and $305. If both remain above first support, companies outside large technology can continue joining the advance.
  • SPCX closed regular trading at $125.95 and fell to about $118.81 after hours. Support is at $114-$115, initial resistance at $126 and the next major threshold at $135. SPCX must hold above $114-$115; losing that band could deepen the post-earnings decline.
  • Rocket Lab, a space and rocket company, closed at $74.48, while satellite-communications company AST SpaceMobile closed at $70.26. Rocket Lab has support at $70 and $66.85 and initial resistance at $75; AST SpaceMobile has support at $64 and $60 and resistance at $72. The probability of double-digit daily moves remains high in these stocks.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin was about $64,282 and Ethereum $1,864. Bitcoin has support at $62,000, initial confirmation at $64,400 and resistance at $65,800; Ethereum has support at $1,850, an initial threshold at $1,880 and resistance at $1,970. Until Bitcoin reclaims $64,400 and Ethereum $1,880, the U.S. equity advance cannot be said to have spread to crypto.
  • The gold ETF GLD closed at $374.13 and the silver ETF SLV at $53.84. GLD has support at $370-$374 and resistance at $376.64 and $380; SLV has support at $53-$52 and resistance at $54.26 and $55. Falling Treasury yields support the metals, but neither has cleared its first strong resistance.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 closed at 13,687.93. Support is at 13,600 and 13,500, while resistance is at 13,800 and 13,900. If the index clears 13,800, Tuesday's gain would strengthen; below 13,500 would show that it was a short-lived rebound.
  • Dollar/TL was about 47.59. Support is at 47.50, initial resistance at 47.70 and the risk boundary at 48.00. As long as the exchange rate stays below 47.70, additional pressure on the BIST through company costs remains limited; above 48.00 would increase it.

Red flags

  • If Hormuz talks break down, another vessel is damaged and Brent returns to the $83-$85 area, the main support for the oil relief weakens.
  • If the U.S. 10-year yield rises above 4.70% while QQQ falls below $707 and SMH below $562, the advance in technology stocks weakens.
  • If SPCX loses its $114-$115 support, the pressure from the first locked-up share tranche becoming saleable on August 6 could add to the heavy investment bill.
  • If the BIST 100 falls below 13,500 while dollar/TL rises above 47.70, Tuesday's advance will be shown to have been temporary.
  • If U.S. services-price indicators come in strong and ADP payrolls also beat expectations, the decline in Treasury yields could reverse.

Calendar

  • August 5, 15:15 TRT: ADP will release its July private payrolls report. The result will show the direction of labor demand ahead of Friday's official employment report.
  • August 5, 16:45 TRT: S&P Global will release its final U.S. services-sector index. New orders, employment and prices will test growth and cost pressure together.
  • August 5, 17:00 TRT: The Institute for Supply Management will release its July services-sector index. Prices paid by companies and the employment subindex will help determine whether the 10-year yield can stay below 4.70%.
  • August 5, 17:30 TRT: The U.S. Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly oil-inventory summary. Crude and product inventories could amplify or limit the price effect of Hormuz news.
  • August 6, 15:30 TRT: The U.S. will release second-quarter productivity and unit labor-cost data. The first locked-up SpaceX share tranche will also begin to become saleable that day.
  • August 7, 15:30 TRT: The U.S. July employment report will be released. Employment, unemployment and wage growth will be the week's most important test for yields and investors' willingness to buy.

My analysis

The key difference in Tuesday's move was that SMH, IGV and IWM also joined QQQ. The advance spread across the market; the next test is whether that participation holds if strong services data pushes yields higher.

The SpaceX earnings showed that strong growth alone was not enough. Subscriber and revenue growth are very strong and the company has substantial cash strength, but it spent $18.37 billion on investment in one quarter and AI spending exceeded that division's revenue sixfold. For the stock to regain strength, the company needs to show more clearly when those investments will generate revenue and cash.

For the advance to continue, Brent must stay below $80, the U.S. 10-year yield below 4.70%, QQQ above $707, SMH above $562 and SPCX above $114-$115. Until a final Hormuz agreement is signed, the return on SpaceX's investments becomes clearer and services companies show slower spending, it is too early to treat one-day surges as lasting.

Sources

  • Associated Press, August 4 U.S. market close: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 5 Asia, oil and currency summary: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, Iran-Oman Hormuz talks and damaged vessel: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, June U.S. job-openings data: apnews.com
  • U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SpaceX second-quarter filing: sec.gov
  • ADP, employment-report calendar: adpemploymentreport.com
  • S&P Global, PMI calendar: pmi.spglobal.com
  • Institute for Supply Management, report calendar: ismworld.org
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration, weekly petroleum schedule: eia.gov
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026 release calendar: bls.gov
  • U.S. ETF, stock and crypto prices: alpaca.markets
  • Piyasa Detay, August 4 BIST 100 close: piyasadetay.com
  • Piyasa Detay, current Turkey and currency prices: piyasadetay.com
  • Bloomberg Television, The Close: youtu.be
  • Bloomberg Television, The Asia Trade: youtu.be
  • Kanal Finans, Tunç Şatıroğlu: youtu.be

This is not investment advice. It is a research and monitoring note.