Friday's session went in two different directions: the major U.S. indexes fell, while IWM, which tracks smaller U.S. companies, rose 0.53%. Risk appetite did not disappear, but crypto lagged as the rally broadened. In the new week, Bitcoin's $67,000 threshold will be as important as equities in showing whether this divergence can last.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.68% and Brent at $88.52; the Associated Press reported on Saturday that another ADNOC tanker was attacked while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. High Treasury yields and Hormuz risk are the rally's two main constraints.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones fell on Friday, while the Russell 2000 and IWM rose. The divergence in smaller companies shows that the selling did not become a broad flight from risk; holding the $302-$303 area is the condition for this signal to continue.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu (@tuncsatiroglu) of Kanal Finans expects advances to continue in U.S. indexes, gold, silver and the space theme in the new week, but considers the crypto outlook weak. His measurable thresholds are $4,425 for spot gold, $66 for spot silver, $151 for SpaceX and $67,000 for Bitcoin.
  • The main pressure thresholds are 4.70% for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and $90 for Brent. As long as neither level is exceeded, the advance in smaller companies can hold; a simultaneous break would increase pressure on technology valuations and risk appetite.

What happened?

  • CNBC's August 14 closing summary reported that the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the day lower, while the Russell 2000 finished higher. ETF data for the completed session showed the same split: QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, fell 0.15%, the semiconductor ETF SMH lost 0.22% and the software-company ETF IGV dropped 2.00%, while IWM rose.
  • Bloomberg Television's weekend program emphasized that pressure from oil and Treasury yields persisted beneath the market despite the S&P 500's third consecutive weekly gain. It reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to the coming week for new economic measures against Iran.
  • The Associated Press reported that an ADNOC tanker was attacked while passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday evening and that no one was injured. It was the third attack in a week on vessels operated by the same company. No new disruption to energy supply has been confirmed, but the incident keeps the risk channel open for Brent, transportation and inflation expectations.
  • Tunç Şatıroğlu's weekly technical outlook draws a clear distinction between equities and crypto. He thinks the upward trend in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 is continuing, that semiconductors have rebounded from critical support and that the space theme could strengthen. By contrast, he says Bitcoin has returned to sideways trading after testing $66,000 and that the risk of $58,000 will not close unless $67,000 is cleared.
  • Precious metals are stronger in this framework. Spot gold stood at $4,376.40 and spot silver at $64.68. Şatıroğlu considers $4,425 for gold and $66 for silver the critical resistance levels this week and thinks the advance could continue if they are cleared. This is not a completed breakout, but a conditional view to be tested by Monday's pricing.
  • In the space theme, SPCX, which tracks SpaceX, closed Friday at $139.80. Şatıroğlu thinks a move above $151 could increase participation and that the upward trend could also continue in Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Because the shares are highly volatile, $151 is only a confirmation threshold, not a direct promise of direction.
  • In Turkey, the BIST 100 ended the latest session up 0.28% at 14,172.26. USD/TRY stood at 47.8820 on Sunday morning. The advance in the BIST is continuing, but the exchange rate's proximity to 48.00 and the external oil-yield combination could limit local risk appetite.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent at $88.52: support at $87, first resistance at $90 and the main risk threshold at $95. Remaining below $90 limits energy pressure; a move above $95 would make inflation and transportation risks more pronounced.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.68%: support and the directional pivot at 4.65%, first resistance at 4.70% and the main risk threshold at 4.85%. A move above 4.70% would compress technology valuations; a break below 4.65% would show that Friday's rise had been reversed.

US indices

  • S&P 500 at 7,785.76: support at 7,750, the first threshold at 7,800 and resistance at 7,850. The structure around record levels remains intact while 7,750 holds; reclaiming 7,800 would strengthen another attempt at the high.
  • Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ at a latest close of $731.05: support at $725, first resistance at $734.39 and the next threshold at $740. Technology leadership remains intact above $725; fresh momentum is not confirmed until $734.39 is cleared.
  • Small-cap U.S. ETF IWM ended Friday at $305.09: a support zone at $302-$303, the directional pivot at $305 and resistance at $310. Staying above $305 would demonstrate broader participation; a break below $302 would erase Friday's positive divergence.

Themes and ETFs

  • Semiconductor ETF SMH closed at $587.78: support at $585, first resistance at $590.15 and the main threshold at $600. The structure remains positive above $585; a strong continuation signal does not emerge until $600 is cleared.
  • Software ETF IGV ended Friday at $104.18: support at $103.70, first resistance at $106.30 and a second threshold at $108. A break below $103.70 would give the selling more room; reclaiming $106.30 would indicate that Friday's loss could prove temporary.
  • SpaceX closed at $139.80: a support zone at $134.88-$135.50, first resistance at $143.92-$145 and the referenced confirmation threshold at $151. Reclaiming $145 would strengthen the recovery; a move above $151 would activate a scenario of broader participation.
  • Rocket Lab closed Friday at $80.23: referenced support at about $76.74, first resistance at $82.43 and a second threshold at $84.17. The structure remains intact above $76.74; clearing $82.43 would open the way for another test of the upper band.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin near $63,094: support at $62,000 and the main confirmation threshold at $67,000; if support breaks, $58,000 is the next risk area. Until $67,000 is reclaimed, crypto is not confirming the broadening in equities.
  • Ethereum was near $1,883 on Sunday morning and XRP near $1.003. ETH has support at $1,850 and resistance at $1,925; XRP has lower support at $0.92 and its first recovery threshold at $1.07. The outlook remains sideways and high-risk until the upper bounds are cleared.
  • Spot gold stood at $4,376.40 on Sunday morning: support at $4,350, first resistance at $4,400 and the referenced confirmation threshold at $4,425. The gold ETF GLD stood at $401.45; holding support at $400 and clearing $4,425 in spot gold would strengthen the continuation view.
  • Spot silver stood at $64.68 on Sunday morning: support at $64 and the referenced resistance and confirmation threshold at $66. A break below $64 would weaken momentum; a move above $66 would confirm Şatıroğlu's weekly continuation scenario.

Turkey

  • BIST 100 at 14,172.26: a support and directional zone at 14,133-14,200, first resistance at 14,250 and the next threshold at 14,300. Another close above 14,200 would strengthen the advance; a break below 14,133 would reduce confidence in the breakout.
  • USD/TRY stood at 47.8820 on Sunday morning: a support zone at 47.70-47.82, with resistance and the risk threshold at 48.00. Remaining below 48.00 preserves the short-term balance; a move above the threshold would increase local inflation and risk-premium pressure.

Red flags

  • If IWM and QQQ fall below $302 and $725 respectively while IGV loses $103.70, the divergence in smaller companies will remain a short-lived rebound rather than a lasting broadening.
  • If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $67,000 and breaks support at $62,000, the $58,000 risk area opens. In that case, crypto will remain weaker than equities instead of confirming risk appetite in stocks.
  • If the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moves above 4.70% and Brent above $90, growth stocks will face financing and energy pressure at the same time. A 4.85% Treasury yield and Brent at $95 are the thresholds for a shift to a harsher risk regime.
  • The latest tanker attack in Hormuz does not mean there has been a new supply disruption. However, if new vessel damage, a sanctions decision or another restriction on passage feeds into oil prices, the equity scenario that began the week positively will weaken.

Calendar

  • Tuesday, August 18, 3:30 p.m. TRT: U.S. July import and export prices. The pass-through of energy pressure into trade prices will be monitored.
  • Tuesday, August 18, 4:15 p.m. TRT: U.S. July industrial production. The report will test whether weakness in consumption is spreading into production.
  • Wednesday, August 19, 9:00 p.m. TRT: Minutes from the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. The balance within the committee among inflation, growth and interest rates could influence the direction of the 4.70% threshold.

My analysis

The positive part of Friday's session was that the selling did not spread to smaller companies. This suggests that the rally is not dependent only on large technology companies. But software's 2% decline on the same day, the Treasury yield's rise to 4.68% and Brent's approach to $90 show that the broadening is not yet solid relief.

My base case is conditional broadening. If IWM stays above $303, QQQ reclaims $734.39 and Bitcoin moves above $67,000, participation in equities, crypto and themes will move closer to the same direction. Gold at $4,425, silver at $66 and SpaceX at $151 would provide additional theme-level confirmation of this improvement.

Conversely, if the Treasury yield rises above 4.70% and Brent above $90 while Bitcoin falls below $62,000, the same story breaks down. Friday's strength in smaller companies will not be sufficient on its own; the new week's real confirmation will be whether broader participation survives oil and financing pressure.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.