Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech did not signal support for rate-cut expectations; it shows that inflation staying above target has opened a new rate front in U.S. assets.

Friday’s selling pressure concentrated in semiconductors and small companies; the more limited pullback in software suggests that the AI theme remains strong but is not spreading evenly across the broader market.

Key takeaways

  • Warsh’s inflation message: 12-month PCE inflation was 3.7% and six-month PCE inflation was 4.1%; the Fed Chair said he saw no meaningful improvement in price pressures.
  • Rates and breadth: The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42 and the Russell 2000 at 2,972.37; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, was $716.43, the semiconductor ETF SMH was $553.11 and IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, fell to $295.75.
  • Energy risk: Brent held at $88.10 while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.73% and the 30-year yield was 5.22%; rates and energy need to be watched together.
  • Calendar: The September 1 JOLTS report, September 3 productivity data and September 4 employment report will test whether rate expectations overtake the earnings story.

What happened?

  • Warsh said he was not offering forward guidance and that monetary policy would be shaped by incoming data; the tone of the speech did not provide a comfortable basis for rate cuts.
  • NVIDIA lifted second fiscal-quarter 2027 revenue to $96.2 billion and data-center revenue to $89.0 billion; it gave a third-quarter revenue outlook of $108 billion plus or minus 2%.
  • AP’s August 28 close showed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling while the sharper Russell 2000 decline showed selling spreading to smaller companies; NVIDIA also closed at $217.55.
  • Bora Özkent (@boraozkent) stresses that AI investment remains a growth engine, but the split between chips and software should be read together with rates.
  • The U.S. Treasury proposed cutting the UAE branch of Banque Misr off from U.S. correspondent banking; OFAC listed Reza Taeedi and Kameng Trading Limited for sanctions in the same announcement.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was at $88.10; the $90 pressure threshold and $95 resistance/risk threshold are above, with $85 support below. As long as Brent remains below $90, a new energy shock cannot be considered confirmed.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.73% at the official August 28 par yield; 4.60% is support, 4.75% the decision threshold and 4.90% the risk threshold to watch as resistance.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.22%; 5.10% is support, 5.25% the pivot and 5.40% the risk threshold acting as resistance for the direction of long-term borrowing costs.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76; 7,700 is support, 7,775 the recovery threshold and 7,850 resistance. Until 7,775 is reclaimed, I do not consider Friday’s selling merely a short pause.
  • QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, closed at $716.43; $710 is support, $720 the recovery threshold and $725 resistance. A close above $720 would be the first repair signal for technology.
  • IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, was at $295.75; $295 is support, $300 the recovery threshold and $305 resistance. Until $300 is reclaimed, market breadth cannot be considered repaired.

Themes and ETFs

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH was at $553.11; $550 is support, $560 the recovery threshold and $570 resistance. Sustained trading below $550 would show that NVIDIA’s result did not spread across the group.
  • The software-company ETF IGV was at $109.50; $107 is support, $110 the recovery threshold and $114 resistance. Software’s relative resilience will strengthen only with sustained trading above $110.
  • NVIDIA ($NVDA) closed at $217.55; $215 is support, $220 the recovery threshold and $225 resistance. The first condition for the strong revenue outlook to carry the price is holding $215.
  • The 20-plus-year U.S. Treasury ETF TLT was at $82.88; $82 is support, $84 the recovery threshold and $86 resistance. TLT moving above $84 would suggest that pressure from long-term Treasury yields is easing.

Crypto and precious metals

  • Bitcoin was around $77,651; $75,000 is support, $80,000 the recovery threshold and $82,000 resistance. Until $80,000 is reclaimed, I do not consider the crypto move confirmation from equity breadth.
  • Ethereum was around $2,442; $2,400 is support, $2,500 the recovery threshold and $2,600 resistance. A move above $2,500 would strengthen the separate crypto setup.
  • XRP was around $1.385; $1.35 is support, $1.45 the recovery threshold and $1.50 resistance. Below $1.35, downside risk increases in a high-volatility market.
  • The gold ETF GLD was at $408.89 and the silver ETF SLV at $60.02; GLD support is $405 and resistance $420, while SLV support is $58 and resistance $65. Until Treasury yields calm, the metals response alone does not mean risk appetite.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 was at 14,641.56; 14,500 is support, 14,700 the recovery threshold and 15,000 resistance. Until sustained trading above 14,700 appears, I do not read the global response as local breadth.
  • USD/TRY was 48.2387; 48.00 is support, 48.50 the pressure threshold and 49.00 resistance. Sustained trading above 48.50 would increase pressure on the local currency.

Red flags

  • If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises above 4.90% or the 30-year yield above 5.40%, rate pressure on technology valuations will deepen.
  • If SMH loses $550 support or QQQ loses $710 support, it will become clear that NVIDIA’s earnings did not create strength across the broader market.
  • If Brent crosses the $95 risk threshold, energy costs and the inflation channel will return to the foreground; above $90 is the first warning.
  • The September 4 employment report will test Warsh’s data-dependent policy framework; if weak breadth accompanies it, earnings support may turn back into rate sensitivity.

Calendar

  • August 31, 4:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. cash market opens; the session ends at 11:00 p.m. TRT.
  • September 1, 5:00 p.m. TRT: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), July 2026.
  • September 2, 5:00 p.m. TRT: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment, July 2026.
  • September 3, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Productivity and Costs, second-quarter 2026 revision.
  • September 4, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Employment Situation, August 2026.
  • September 7: the U.S. cash market is closed for Labor Day.

My analysis

Friday’s selling was not caused by an earnings collapse; it was a test of NVIDIA’s strong outlook by higher Treasury yields and weak market breadth.

Read together with the more limited pullback in software, the semiconductor retreat suggests that the AI theme is not over; capital is being redistributed among areas with high rate sensitivity.

The next confirmation will not come from one company’s result, but from whether QQQ reclaims $720, SMH $560 and IWM $300. Until all three thresholds are cleared, I do not read Friday’s move as broad-based risk appetite.

Sources

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.