Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's August 28 message suggested that a comfortable basis for a rate cut had not emerged before inflation returned to the 2% target. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.73%, the 30-year yield 5.22%, while the S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42.

QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, SMH, the semiconductor ETF, and NVIDIA stock mark three sensitive points where rate and market-breadth pressure must be watched together. Friday's selling was concentrated in these areas, so the next confirmation will be sought less in a single earnings report than in support and recovery thresholds.

Key takeaways

  • Inflation: Warsh's speech put 12-month personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation at 3.7% and six-month PCE inflation at 4.1%; both measures remain above the 2% target.
  • Breadth: The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42, while IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, carried the weakness in market participation at $295.75.
  • Rates and energy: The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.73%, the 30-year yield 5.22% and Brent $88.10; spot gold at $4,455.11 and spot silver at $66.38 were observed on screen.
  • Calendar and news: U.S. employment data due September 1-4, the September 2 Beige Book and Broadcom's September 3 earnings call are the next tests of the technology-rate split; Associated Press (@AP) reported 37 deaths and damage to at least 50 homes in the attack near Myla.

What happened?

  • The Fed's official speech text emphasized that recent progress on price pressures had been limited and that policy decisions would be shaped by new data; Treasury yields remained the main test for technology multiples.
  • Associated Press reported that a Russian drone struck a warehouse west of Myla, killing 37 people, damaging at least 50 homes and forcing more than 370 people to evacuate; this keeps the geopolitical risk premium alive.
  • In the August 28 close, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite edged lower while pressure in semiconductors and small companies showed that the technology story was not spreading evenly across the market.
  • Kanal Finans's August 29 assessment titled “SMH ETF Analizi: Yapay Zeka Motorunun Merkezindeki Fon” examines concentration in the chip fund alongside the AI infrastructure theme; this frame explains why the $550 support and $560 recovery threshold should be watched together.

Market levels

Global risk and oil

  • Brent was $88.10 in the BloombergHT screen observation at 08:55 TRT on August 30; $85 is support, $90 the pressure threshold and $95 resistance. Below $90, energy pressure is contained for now, while above $95 it expands the inflation channel.
  • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.73% at the official August 28 par yield; 4.60% is support, 4.75% the decision threshold and 4.90% the risk limit. Above 4.90%, the rate headwind for technology valuations becomes sharper.
  • The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.22%; 5.10% is support, 5.25% the pivot and 5.40% the risk limit. Above 5.40% is the zone where long-term borrowing costs add to the pressure.

US indices

  • The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 in the August 28 Associated Press close; 7,700 is support, 7,775 the recovery threshold and 7,850 resistance. Until 7,775 is reclaimed, I do not consider Friday's move a broad-based repair.
  • The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,402.42 in the August 28 Associated Press close; 26,250 is support, 26,650 the recovery threshold and 27,000 resistance. The first relief in technology will be measured by this index approaching its recovery threshold.
  • The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ was $716.43 in the delayed SIP close on August 28; $710 is support, $720 the confirmation threshold and $725 resistance. A close above $720 would suggest that rate pressure has pulled back for the first time.
  • IWM, which tracks small U.S. companies, was $295.75 in the delayed SIP close on August 28; $295 is support, $300 the recovery threshold and $305 resistance. There is no durable repair in market breadth until $300 is reclaimed.

Themes and ETFs

  • The semiconductor ETF SMH was $553.11 in the delayed SIP close on August 28; $550 is support, $560 the recovery threshold and $570 resistance. Below $550, the warning that strong AI demand has not spread across the group becomes stronger.
  • The software-company ETF IGV was $109.50 in the same close; $107 is support, $110 the recovery threshold and $114 resistance. Sustained trading above $110 would make technology's relative resilience clearer.
  • NVIDIA stock was $217.55 in the delayed SIP close on August 28; $215 is support, $220 the recovery threshold and $225 resistance. Holding $215 keeps post-earnings price behavior orderly.
  • The 20-plus-year U.S. Treasury ETF TLT was $82.88 in the delayed SIP close on August 28; $82 is support, $84 the recovery threshold and $86 resistance. A move above $84 would signal that pressure from long-term Treasury yields is easing.

Crypto and precious metals

  • The gold ETF GLD was $408.89 in the delayed SIP close on August 28, while spot gold was $4,455.11 on the BloombergHT screen on August 30; for GLD, $405 is support, $415 the recovery threshold and $420 resistance. Below $405, hedging demand weakens.
  • The silver ETF SLV was $60.02 in the delayed SIP close on August 28, while spot silver was $66.38 on the BloombergHT screen on August 30; for SLV, $58 is support, $62 the recovery threshold and $65 resistance. I do not assign durable strength to the metals move until $62 is cleared.
  • Bitcoin was $78,120.13 in the last-trade reading at 08:55 TRT on August 30; $75,000 is support, $80,000 the recovery threshold and $82,000 resistance. This is an intraday crypto reading, not a completed equity-market close.
  • Ethereum was $2,455.50 in the same last-trade reading; $2,400 is support, $2,500 the recovery threshold and $2,600 resistance. A move above $2,500 would strengthen the separate crypto setup.
  • XRP was $1.39703 in the same last-trade reading; $1.35 is support, $1.45 the recovery threshold and $1.50 resistance. Below $1.35, downside risk increases in a high-volatility market.

Turkey

  • The BIST 100 was 14,641.56 in the BloombergHT screen observation at 08:55 TRT on August 30; 14,500 is support, 14,700 the recovery threshold and 15,000 resistance. Until sustained trading above 14,700 appears, I do not read the global response as local breadth.
  • USD/TRY was 48.2387 in the same BloombergHT screen observation; 48.00 is support, 48.50 the pressure threshold and 49.00 resistance. Sustained trading above 48.50 would increase pressure on the local currency.

Red flags

  • If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves above 4.90% or the 30-year yield above 5.40%, valuation pressure on long-duration growth stocks will deepen.
  • If the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ loses $710 or the semiconductor ETF SMH loses $550 support, it will be confirmed that technology strength has not spread across the broader market.
  • If Brent crosses the $95 risk limit, energy costs and the inflation channel return to the foreground; above $90 is the first warning.
  • If the September 4 employment report arrives with weak breadth, strong company results will not be enough to offset rate sensitivity on their own.
  • Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are intraday readings; reading them in the same confirmation window as equity closes can be misleading.

Calendar

  • August 31, 4:30 p.m. TRT: the U.S. cash market opens; the 11:00 p.m. TRT close will show whether QQQ, SMH and IGV can repair Friday's loss.
  • September 1, 5:00 p.m. TRT: JOLTS, July 2026; the first labor-market indicator that may reshape rate expectations.
  • September 1: Waller and Barr speeches appear on the Federal Reserve Board calendar; their times are not specified in this cut.
  • September 2, 5:00 p.m. TRT: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment, July 2026; a regional labor-market picture ahead of Friday's employment report.
  • September 2, 9:00 p.m. TRT: the Federal Reserve Beige Book; an update on regional growth, prices and labor conditions.
  • After the U.S. close on September 2, September 3 at 12:00 a.m. TRT: Broadcom's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call; a new test of whether AI infrastructure demand is spreading across the chip group.
  • September 3, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Productivity and Costs, second-quarter 2026 revision; completing the growth and cost backdrop.
  • September 4, 3:30 p.m. TRT: Employment Situation, August 2026; the week's main catalyst for rates and breadth.
  • September 7: the U.S. cash market is closed for Labor Day.
  • September 30, 11:30 p.m. TRT: Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call; the next validation point for memory and AI infrastructure.

My analysis

The main picture is not that the AI theme has ended, but that high Treasury yields are testing how far it can spread across the market.

Pressure in semiconductors sits beside the more limited loss in software; that split shows capital being redistributed within technology according to rate sensitivity.

The confirmation sequence does not rest on one company's result: QQQ must reclaim $720, SMH $560 and IWM $300. Because Warsh's policy framework is data-dependent, markets will price earnings headlines together with employment data and Treasury yields this week.

Sources

  • Federal Reserve Board, Kevin Warsh's August 28, 2026 speech: federalreserve.gov
  • U.S. Treasury, daily Treasury par yield curve: home.treasury.gov
  • Associated Press, August 28 U.S. index closes: apnews.com
  • Associated Press, August 29 attack near Myla: apnews.com
  • BloombergHT market screen: bloomberght.com
  • Delayed SIP equity/ETF and crypto snapshots: data.alpaca.markets
  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026 release calendar: bls.gov
  • Federal Reserve Board, September 2026 calendar: federalreserve.gov
  • Broadcom Investor Relations, fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call: investors.broadcom.com
  • Micron Investor Relations, September 30, 2026 results announcement: investors.micron.com
  • Bloomberg Television, “Bloomberg This Weekend | Deadly Strikes in Ukraine, ‘Historic’ Oil Deal, High-end Hybrids”, YouTube 3ZO5nRPxU_8, August 29, 2026, time-stamped automated captions.
  • Kanal Finans, “SMH ETF Analizi: Yapay Zeka Motorunun Merkezindeki Fon”, YouTube faxDH-2f-y0, August 29, 2026, time-stamped automated captions.
  • Kanal Finans, “Bir Konuşma Piyasaları Allak Bullak Etti”, YouTube MEt3ggklScg, August 29, 2026, time-stamped automated captions.

This is not investment advice; it is a research and monitoring note.